Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

You just can't compare deaths from Covid19 to flu. Covid deaths are an order of magnitude higher as anyone studying the "excess deaths" graphs can see.

I was responding to a pp who stated respiratory viruses are worst during summer months. I’m fully aware they’re different

That should say winter months!

Babyboomtastic

Re the death rate, don't forget that it was only a few weeks ago that the definition of a Covid death changed, which is noticeable in the graphs. obviously the pattern of deaths isn't going to look the same right now...

This isn’t correct, the change that was implemented was applied historically, hence the total dropping, and is reflected in the graphs.

I am concerned OP. It is obvious there is a rise. But firstly, everyone I know who is going back to university is doing at least the first semester either all online or mostly online. I would bet that will extend into the second semester too. They really aren't planning on packing hundreds of people into lecture theatres. I get that many people will still be mixing socially but the fact remains most people in that age bracket aren't at risk of serious illness even if they do spread it around between them.

Also, realistically there was always going to be a rise in cases from now on. I am not sitting here going 'this is nothing' because who knows at the moment - certainly the testing situation is appalling and is a really serious situation. I just sincerely hope any further rises are slow and manageable. But just because cases go up/hospitalisations and deaths trickle up, it doesn't mean anything will be overwhelmed. Even once we have a vaccine and better treatments, this virus is here to stay and I think it will pick the weakest off each winter. I think the biggest issue is how fast do things grow over the next few weeks, how many deaths does that result in and how are our hospitals coping. If our hospitals do just about cope (bearing in mind it's quite a normal thing in winter for them to be very overstretched anyway) then this is not necessarily an absolute disaster.

I hope moving forward we are going to put a huge amount more money into healthcare. This has really highlighted how crap the situation with the NHS is, for all the good things about it.

But waiting to see 'how fast' things are going may be too late as there is always a few weeks lag for any intervention ( such as lockdown) to take effect.

I agree it’s very worrying- I also think numbers of ICU patients will soar surprisingly quickly

Isn't the use of ventilators a bit of a red herring ? I thought they had decided that in many cases there was more appropriate treatment than to ventilate .

@Cinderellashoes

In one week during August, coronavirus killed 150 ish people. That same week over 1000 died from flu. Numbers are from ons data

Actually Cinders, you're using figures for flu AND PNEUMONIA. This includes both viral and bacterial pneumonia. At this time of year, the pneumonia figures will massively outweigh the flu part of those figures.

But none of this is relevant, because we should not be discussing where we are now, but rather where we will be in a month's time if the current trend continues.

Also - something that may explain some figures is the demographic. It seems that currently the increase in cases is more among the young. It may take time for this to spread to more vulnerable people - so there may be a lag in deaths.

A significant proportion of very vulnerable people may have died in mar/apr (so the average age in the country may be younger now) - the host population is less susceptible.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the virus is weaker (as a weak virus which gives mild symptoms is more likely to spread). I’m not sure there is evidence for this or the less susceptible hosts though.

In any case, given our experience, it would be sensible to be cautious. Corona presents risks to non-covid patients - by its potential to disrupt hospital and clinic functioning.

Why does vitamin D hardly ever get mentioned? We've only got a few weeks of sufficient UVB radiation from the sun left. That coupled with the increasing cases I think in about a month it's going to be a very different picture unfortunately.

There’s no point posting here about your concerns. I tried the other day. The majority on here are living in lala land and just wishing the virus away.
“It’s mutating to be less deadly”
“Deaths are low”
“We won’t lock down again”

Let’s see how shocked they are in probably 6 weeks when we are in lockdown again.

Idiots

I agree OP I don’t know why people can’t understand the lag of 2-3 weeks. We experienced this all already before. Plenty people in feb/March were convinced it was no big deal

There are probably a variety of factors but one reason why the BAME community are adversely affected.

From NHS website with regards to Vitamin D deficiency:
If you have dark skin – for example you have an African, African-Caribbean or south Asian background – you may also not get enough vitamin D from sunlight.

Experts keep reiterating that the virus is just as deadly and has not mutated to be less so

Looking at ventilator usage isn’t a red herring. Yes, the doctors try everything before ventilators now as they know Covid patients don’t do great on them. But once a patient can not breathe and is literally drowning in their own fluid then there is literally no other option but to ventilate to keep them alive

I don't understand why people persist on arguing that flu kills more people than Covid19. It doesn't. Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. The yearly deaths vary from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19, but even if we take the highest yearly death rate from that range, Covid19 has still killed more people this year and we're only 3/4 way through. Also, people seem to forget that any Coronavirus deaths/hospitalisations are in addition to flu deaths/hospitalisations, so hospitals will be overwhelmed this winter even if cases don't rise exponentially.

@Cinderellashoes

The issue with the figures isn’t that they are currently particularly bad, it’s the direction of travel.

If we could be confident that Covid hospitalisations would remain at current levels, or even just double or treble, Covid wouldn’t be a particular public health concern.... But we can’t unfortunately.

I recall how things unfolded in the southern US states over the summer....

1. cases were rising, but hospitalisations were low... all supposedly ok;
2. hospitalIsations rose, but deaths remained low... not a problem apparently;
3. hospitalisations spiked and deaths rose....take action and repurpose wards and enforce social distancing and mandate masks etc!
4. cases plateau as people are spooked and people change behaviour, hundreds dying daily in Florida and Texas;
5. cases fall as people continue to be cautious, hundreds still die daily.

We’re now seem to be at 2.... so no need to panic or be overly alarmed - I’m still going out and about (all within the rules) - but that’s not to say I’m not concerned about it will play out. However, I’m at least as concerned about what a large spike in Covid hospitalisations will do to cancer and other non-Covid treatments, and the impact on the economy as people’s behaviours change to avoid going out. For me being concerned about Covid infections rising definitely isn’t all about Covid - on the contrary!

I also don’t believe there’s any evidence that the virus is weakening unfortunately. Studies to date haven’t indicated that it is materially different to how it was in March. In March, only the most ill were being hospitalised and that quite possibly had an adverse impact on our death rate. Now we have far more capacity - for the moment at least - so we can treat less ill patients.

If it had mutated to something rather different, that might be a concern as it would mean any vaccine would have been developed based on a defunct virus, with associated issues with its effectiveness.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

I am concerned OP. It is obvious there is a rise. But firstly, everyone I know who is going back to university is doing at least the first semester either all online or mostly online. I would bet that will extend into the second semester too. They really aren't planning on packing hundreds of people into lecture theatres. I get that many people will still be mixing socially but the fact remains most people in that age bracket aren't at risk of serious illness even if they do spread it around between them.

Also, realistically there was always going to be a rise in cases from now on. I am not sitting here going 'this is nothing' because who knows at the moment - certainly the testing situation is appalling and is a really serious situation. I just sincerely hope any further rises are slow and manageable. But just because cases go up/hospitalisations and deaths trickle up, it doesn't mean anything will be overwhelmed. Even once we have a vaccine and better treatments, this virus is here to stay and I think it will pick the weakest off each winter. I think the biggest issue is how fast do things grow over the next few weeks, how many deaths does that result in and how are our hospitals coping. If our hospitals do just about cope (bearing in mind it's quite a normal thing in winter for them to be very overstretched anyway) then this is not necessarily an absolute disaster.

I hope moving forward we are going to put a huge amount more money into healthcare. This has really highlighted how crap the situation with the NHS is, for all the good things about it.

You are right, with regard to the university students. I've thought this a couple of times, and then forgotten I've thought it, but because they are living away from home, and because they almost entirely mix exclusively with other university students, they're probably the best group to get it.

I really hope cases do just trickle up, but it's not usually the nature of the beast. I think we have to take a very careful line. We can't just assume the worst will happen, because the "cure" for stopping growth of Covid is extremely expensive in both human and financial terms. However, we can't be blase and "just so over this" either, because there is a very good chance hospitals, schools and working parents will just stop functioning this winter. I think we have to think about what compromises we are prepared to make, because both a total lockdown and a wimpy response like "rule of six" are equally damaging.

I think the government need to think about some kind of "hibernation" measures for sectors that cannot function during high spread. We can't afford to keep paying everyone full pay throughout, but we could give massive incentives to start back up once we come out the other side, maybe? And maybe a temporary boost to universal credit? Some kind of extended ban on repossessions?

We definitely need much more of a security net than food banks, that's for sure. I'm very worried that we are going to see poverty like we have never seen before this winter, lock down or no lock down. One of my single mum friends was waiting for Universal Credit to come through two Christmases ago and it was heart breaking.

Sorry, a bit of a waffle there, and off my own topic.

This is not a drill, people.

Great post, Derbygerbil.

Experts keep reiterating that the virus is just as deadly and has not mutated to be less so

I wish that weren’t so but that seems to be the case. Of course, if it’s mainly younger patients currently being seen, it will appear milder than in older patients who seem to be far more affected.

During the warmer months we have had more opportunities to socially distance. During the colder weather, people will be spending longer time periods indoors together and using the same heating/air circulation.
Research suggests that both this factors (longer episodes of time together with an infected and sharing circulated air flow) increase risk of catching and spread.

@Nellodee

Actually Cinders, you're using figures for flu AND PNEUMONIA. This includes both viral and bacterial pneumonia. At this time of year, the pneumonia figures will massively outweigh the flu part of those figures.

Indeed, as I have posted previously elsewhere, pneumonia often isn’t caused by infection transmitted from another person - though it can be - but is often caused by normally harmless bacteria that live within us naturally that become pathogenic in people who are gravely weakened by long-term serious conditions and those heading toward the end of life.

Conflating the ONS flu and pneumonia deaths with deaths caused by the influenza virus is plain wrong.

I think the government need to think about some kind of "hibernation" measures for sectors that cannot function during high spread. We can't afford to keep paying everyone full pay throughout, but we could give massive incentives to start back up once we come out the other side, maybe? And maybe a temporary boost to universal credit? Some kind of extended ban on repossessions?

I think that's very sensible. We should absolutely be looking at supporting the most vulnerable. I am far more worried about the economic damage than I am about the death rates, much as I don't want people to die. We have to step up and support those who will be badly affected financially. The more we can support those who need to be back shielding, the better.

@Cinderellashoes it’s because the testing is catching cases in the younger age group which we missed in February where we only saw the fuse lit before it went off, whereas now due to testing we’re seeing the fuse kit early.