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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:03

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:05

Note:
I added links for the Alama personal risk assessment and to our Studies Corner

OP posts:
Littlebelina · 12/09/2020 18:18

Thanks for new thread

itsgettingweird · 12/09/2020 18:45

Thanks for new thread BCF

Finally caught up with this weeks PHE surveillance report.

I'm those graphs of age distribution really show the clear rise in cases for 17-21 compared to other age ranges. Which I think when you look that other ranges often cover 15-20 years as well.

I'd be interested to know if we can get data for how many people in population fall into each age group.

Also reassuring to see that schools 'outbreaks' h their definitions are still currently lower than July and lower than workplace and eating out etc.
Will be watching.

Anyone heard or read or have a link to any further data coming out from when WHO asked to look back to xrays and illness etc to August 2019?

I'd also like to know if the ARI in schools week 45-52 2019 was above average or not? I heard it was unusually high this year (or rather end of last!) and that's led to some of the questions.

whenwillthemadnessend · 12/09/2020 18:51

Thank you for new thread

FATEdestiny · 12/09/2020 18:53

I remember CW talking about restriction fatigue, back in March. I recall doubting rational individuals would feel that. But here I am, with restriction fatigue

I'm a family of 6, no visitors for us. Four of us have birthdays in the next 3 week. It's pants, I am sick of this shit. I'll do as I'm told, as I always do. But I don't feel ok about it anymore.

AnyFucker · 12/09/2020 19:03

.

Reastie · 12/09/2020 19:07

Does anyone know if other countries are struggling with numbers of testing? We have quite a narrow range of symptoms for testing compared to other countries so you’d think the amount of tests required would therefore be less. I’m just wondering if it’s just UK being incompetent with testing or if worldwide others have the same issue.

Fyzz · 12/09/2020 19:07

Thanks for all the good work BigCho

whatsnext2 · 12/09/2020 19:08

Thanks

twolittleboysonetiredmum · 12/09/2020 19:15

Thanks for the new thread :)

NeurotrashWarrior · 12/09/2020 19:21

Thanks bigchoc.

That's concerning piggy, especially as most children have few or no symptoms.

Do we have a breakdown for positivity rates between males and females?

NeurotrashWarrior · 12/09/2020 19:23

Good questions Its

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 19:23

@Reastie

Does anyone know if other countries are struggling with numbers of testing? We have quite a narrow range of symptoms for testing compared to other countries so you’d think the amount of tests required would therefore be less. I’m just wondering if it’s just UK being incompetent with testing or if worldwide others have the same issue.
... The UK has increased testing very rapidly, going from one of the lower testers to one of the highest However, no country can test everyone who wants a test, without some grounds

Most larger European countries now do targeted testing:
of infection hotspots, contacts of infected people, HCPs and care workers

The UK does as well, except it has not yet been able to test care workers as promised
Seems to be too many unrealistic promises - and the "worried well" being allowed to take up tests

In particular, there should not be tests for people who only want a negative test before going on holiday abroad - some countries want this,
but someone's wish for a holiday should not trump the need of a weekly test for a care worker, or of sniffly child for a test to return to school

  • school return is another reason for the queue for tests, but I don't know if other countries who returned earlier have experienced the same

I posted before that the premier of the German state of Bavaria, pop 13 million, promised everyone there could have a free test without grounds

  • which has proved that any test system even in a large German state can be overloaded Both labs and doctors complained this had disrupted even their normal non-COVID work with the demand from the worried well. Until then, he had been widely praised for handling COVID v well in Bavaria - the hardest hit German state - but hopefully that bright idea has now bitten the dust.
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 19:24

The bright idea of tests for all, I mean

OP posts:
Firefliess · 12/09/2020 19:32

@itgettingwierd The charts in the surveillance report are per 100,000 of the population, so it doesn't matter that the age bands have different numbers of people in them

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 19:36

Weird I don't know if schools had more illness / absences last winter,
but for the country as a whole, there were actually lower deaths last winter than the 5-year average

How many people of each age group ?
ONS has figures for 2018, also in other tabs divided into sex

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2fpopulationprojections%2fdatasets%2ftablea21principalprojectionukpopulationinagegroups%2f2018based/ukpppsumpop18.xls

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
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BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 19:40

What could be useful is this interactive ONS map of age distribution, where you can check for each area the rough number of under 16s, 65+ (they use it to project into the future, but we should just take 2018)

Might help explain / predict areas with higher death rates

ONS say the 65+ seem to congregate in coastal areas

See section 6 of:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/august2019#the-uks-population-is-ageing

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 19:42

because if you select your LA, then knowing if there are a high or low number of 65+ might be a more important indicator of deaths than deprivation or ethnic makeup

OP posts:
itsgettingweird · 12/09/2020 19:44

[quote Firefliess]@itgettingwierd The charts in the surveillance report are per 100,000 of the population, so it doesn't matter that the age bands have different numbers of people in them[/quote]
Thanks.

Reastie · 12/09/2020 19:44

Thanks choc, I remember you saying about the worried well testing in an area of Germany.

Redolent · 12/09/2020 19:45

Is it wise to massively ramp up ONS surveillance testing when there’s such a high demand atm?

MarshaBradyo · 12/09/2020 19:46

Thanks BigChoc

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 20:06

@Redolent

Is it wise to massively ramp up ONS surveillance testing when there’s such a high demand atm?
... ONS surveillance reports are important info for the govt when making decisions Currently their sample size cannot give accurate trends unless the change is large - the govt need to see trends before they get large

If the UK remains short of tests, better to set more stringent test requirements and exclude worried well, or people wanting to go abroad

It depends too, on how often the ONS test
Increasing to 150,000 in October might mean an extra 130,000 ONS tests per fortnight compared to now, so less than 1 day of tests

Also, the ONS might move mostly to serum tests - they do a mix atm, iirc

OP posts:
TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair · 12/09/2020 20:14

I've been enjoying reading these threads so just marking my place. Thank you for all the information.

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