Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

I thought that you only had to isolate if your child had a positive test?! Surely they should test medics rather than leave them to isolate when they have not been in contact with a confirmed case.

The household still has to isolate until the child has a negative result though, which could take quite a few days at the moment.

It's incredibly disruptive. I've had one child with a cold that turned into a cough, so we all had to isolate until he tested negative. The day after his negative test result, his sibling developed a fever, so we were back to isolating again until he tested negative. With delays in getting test results, it ended up being almost two weeks off school. With no blended learning in place, it's going to be very difficult to keep up with school work if this keeps happening.

@Monkey2001

We had staff isolating for 4 days this week because it took two days to book a test for their child and two days to get the result.

We produce a food that most of you will put in your shopping baskets once a week. We have 6 staff and we are all already shattered with the stress of this.

Like the doctor upthread said there needs to be something in place for key workers to get back into work ASAP. W

It was 4 1/2 days for us from child first having a temperature to getting the negative result - 2 days to get a test and then 2.5 to get the result...

3,330 cases reported today vs 2,988 from last Sunday.

Bercows not seen that message, but having used the website on Friday, I think the website is a problem as well as issues with testing capacity. I don't think the website can cope with the amount of traffic on it, as after I'd refreshed several time, I could book at my local drive in site. I don't think the time slots had just been added and the testing centre wasn't busy when I went.

Are Sunday figures usually lower, does anyone know? I seem to recall there was a weekend lag in the past.

@Goldistheanswer

Are Sunday figures usually lower, does anyone know? I seem to recall there was a weekend lag in the past.

On deaths, doesn't tend to be on cases.

Thanks Littlebelina

The issue with schools with this lag is no contacts or bubbles will isolate until a positive comes through. It is a bit alarming to think of other potential cases in circulation for 5 or 6 days.

Good point piggy.

This study predicted a second wave without adequate test and trace (I know it's probably been linked before but worth revisiting given what's happening in real time now):

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30250-9/fulltext

The issue with schools with this lag is no contacts or bubbles will isolate until a positive comes through. It is a bit alarming to think of other potential cases in circulation for 5 or 6 days. Yes, very alarming Piggy and I wonder at what point of breakdown of test and trace the unions are going to decide schools simply aren't safe for any teachers over (?) 50 or with underlying conditions.

If a child's off with covid symptoms, can't get a test but whatever she/he has is in circulation among their close contacts in the meantime, that's really not great.

To send state children back against best practice (no SD, class sizes about double the maximum recommended) whilst also not having a functioning test and trace. I feel like I'm witnessing a collision in those seconds before it hits.

That NHS video linked upthread, with the clouds of coronavirus spreading out as people sit and talk (2m apart) or walk through the supermarket (past the man with the mask). As I was watching it I kept thinking - but kids and teachers in schools aren't doing ANY of this.

Exactly. Early doors the WHO stated that we must test, test, test.

It's like we are sat watching the inevitable unfold without the power to do anything to stop it.

244 new cases in Scotland today but again the vast majority are in Glasgow and surrounding areas- 104 cases in Glasgow and 63 in Lanarkshire.

Many health board areas (some with large urban centres) with very few new cases- only 4 in Fife, 4 in Forth Valley, 8 in Grampian and 5 in Tayside.

The increase in cases is still not leading to more deaths or people in hospital- only 7 in ICU (down 1) and 259 in hospital (down 2). For context, there were 260 in hospital on July 31st.

Comment on herd immunity, where are we?

Suggests may be a maximum of 70% eg on densely populated aircraft carrier, but super spreaders may reduce to 50%. However even this percentage means huge fatalities.

www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00451-5

DO we need to consider herd immunity? With the oxford vaccine trial restarted and results due in the next couple of months we may soon have a reasonable exit plan without it.

Are current estimates for 'immune' people (bearing in mind we don't really know how long they might remain immune for) not only around 4% of the population?
Sorry I cannot back this number up at the mo'.
If it is there or thereabouts, we are a LOOOOOOOONG way off meaningful herd immunity being of any benefit to the overall population.

It took about 200 years to eradicate small pox with a vaccine and better public health/hygiene, so I am trying to adjust to a world in which Covid is a fact of life, whether I like it or not. Gah.

@Piggywaspushed

The issue with schools with this lag is no contacts or bubbles will isolate until a positive comes through. It is a bit alarming to think of other potential cases in circulation for 5 or 6 days.

We are waiting to hear if my son's bubble needs to isolate. We ditched all clubs last week just in case but not sure what to do about this week if we don't hear either way from the school....

Hospital inpatients noticeably ticking up now.... let's hope they get a handle on it quickly.

Have just seen a sensible useful thought from someone on Boycott Unsafe Schools Fb page (!) - not sure if it's been said here so thought worth posting. Apologies am not nearly as maths-minded as many on here, but here goes:

If there is a backlog of 185,000 tests (sent to Germany/ Italy/ Timbuctoo), as we have no capacity to process them, and current positivity rate is 1.3% (10 Sept) that's an extra 2,405 cases. Spread over say 4 days (NHS was saying 48 hrs for results but I'm being more realistic) that's an extra 600 new cases a day. So just under 20% higher than reported. And that's only for those who choose or are able to get tested in the first place.

@FurForksSake

DO we need to consider herd immunity? With the oxford vaccine trial restarted and results due in the next couple of months we may soon have a reasonable exit plan without it.

Yes in order to estimate percentage vaccinated to start having protective effect.

@PrayingandHoping

Hospital admissions are not increasing in the vast majority of the country. There are a very small number of hospitals that are seeing increased admissions- this was always going to happen and can be dealt with using local measures.

Personally I’d like to see a national ‘emergency response team’ made up of doctors, nurses and other HCPs which can be sent into COVID hotspot areas to help support the existing staff and man the nightingale hospitals if necessary.

Schools is an interesting one as there were around 5 off in ds's class by the end of the week excluding ds. At what point do they take proactive action and think there might be a problem here and we need to infirm parents especially as tests are rarer than hen's teeth. A child in his class had a soft play type party yesterday for the whole class

I got confused with the figures for cases and deaths too remembering a lag over the weekend but that was deaths. Sundays and Mondays were usually lower then shot up on Tuesdays.

Tameside hospital has had increased deaths. I don't know about recently but it has had a terrible reputation locally before and I wonder if that has any impact if still true.

Bercows did you manage to get tests?

[quote Ecosse]@PrayingandHoping

Hospital admissions are not increasing in the vast majority of the country. There are a very small number of hospitals that are seeing increased admissions- this was always going to happen and can be dealt with using local measures.

Personally I’d like to see a national ‘emergency response team’ made up of doctors, nurses and other HCPs which can be sent into COVID hotspot areas to help support the existing staff and man the nightingale hospitals if necessary.[/quote]
How do you know that for sure?

Our local hospital has had a "significant increase in Covid-19 patients" in the last week despite around here being pretty low.

*To send state children back against best practice (no SD, class sizes about double the maximum recommended) whilst also not having a functioning test and trace. I feel like I'm witnessing a collision in those seconds before it hits.

That NHS video linked upthread, with the clouds of coronavirus spreading out as people sit and talk (2m apart) or walk through the supermarket (past the man with the mask). As I was watching it I kept thinking - but kids and teachers in schools aren't doing ANY of this.*

Totally agree. We all know, the kids all know - schools are no more 'Covid safe' than any other place where large numbers of people gather. The whole thing is a farce and, without any protective measures in place, is going to to end badly.