Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Thanks to whoever posted the Gavurin link

Thanks Arti, this is him, another interview with C4 on his twitter.

He's v critical of the messages the govt are giving; he says people are happy to follow the advice but the advice is v confusing.

@ReicherStephen

@NeurotrashWarrior

Thanks Arti, this is him, another interview with C4 on his twitter.

He's v critical of the messages the govt are giving; he says people are happy to follow the advice but the advice is v confusing.

@ReicherStephen

I can't see a link x

.................

I’ve just logged on to the Zoe app and noticed that for the first time their estimated daily cases are nearly the same as the governments’s published confirmed cases - so the estimate today from Zoe is 3,610.

It’s usually much higher.

Agree, I've always wondered, if there was a zero tolerance policy on very sick children in school (so not just runny nose), whether overall attendance would go up or down

I don't think any school deliberately keeps in a clearly very sick child.

Problem with that is that some children can appear very ill when really they're nothing more than a slight cold and would be fine in school, and others can look absolutely fine when they're really quite bad.

I'll swear dd2 can make herself turn grey to order when she wants to come home and she will be fine 2 minutes after I picked her up. Equally well I've had her bouncing on the trampoline shouting her head off and eating like a horse with a temperature of over 41.

twitter.com/reicherstephen?s=21

Sorry, does that work?

To be clear I’m not saying I think this means infections aren’t rising. More wondering why they would be coming in line - could it be to do with population age that it’s currently more prevalent in being less likely to be on Zoe?2

@IloveJKRowling

Neurotrash What do you usually do? Teachers and HCPs must have kids that get sick normally too, with norovirus or whatever else is doing the rounds?

Possibly the government needs to subsidise businesses to employ more staff / more bank staff to cover for employees who'll need to take more time off to be at home with sick kids this year.

Schools have a policy of "send them in" unless it's obviously highly contagious (chicken pox, weird rash, puking) or they can't stand up.

Ds, 7, has had temps at school before which they managed with calpol and only told me about after school.

They only contacted me once when a temp wouldn't come down and he was half asleep on the table.

Dh and I manage it between us; it was v hard when they're at nursery and constantly spiking temps as you do tend to have to take unpaid leave a lot.

Obviously schools are judged by ofsted on attendance figures. A few years ago a school I taught at only got "good" as attendance was low enough to hit a certain threshold, and one other area. DHT asked what more could she do about it, and they said, nothing, you're doing all you can. If they'd had great attendance they'd have been outstanding.

Teaching staff get used to being ill a lot. There's been a few Xmases when it's been close to school closure because so many staff are ill.

There's barely enough extra money to deal with the extra cleaning and provide pencils and enough balls in schools let alone extra cover for absent staff.

Schools have been spiralling down hill for years.

We’re an excellent example of the school scenario - a child in one class had a clearly v unwell child on first day of term (but sent them in as the covid test was negative). By the end of the first week, 7 households with a child in that class are self isolating and waiting for a test result because their child now has the same nasty cold (and a high temperature). Impacting on so many children throughout the school.

I noticed in that link from Sun
that the UK is sending covid swabs to Italian and German labs because the UK has run out of capacity

Italy & Germany could need their full lab capacity if cases there rise sharply again, which could happen any time
and very likely will happen over winter
I hope there is a plan C, assuming that was B
Swabs were also sent to US labs a few months ago, but reportedly they lost a great number, so this idea wasn't repeated.

The Times has the story too:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/leaked-figures-reveal-scale-of-coronavirus-test-shortage-xjxprnm0v?

"The government’s “world-beating” testing programme has a backlog of 185,000 swabs and is so overstretched that it is sending tests to laboratories in Italy and Germany, according to leaked documents.

A Department of Health and Social Care report marked “Official: sensitive” also confirms that most British laboratories are clearing fewer tests than their stated capacity, as they are hit by “chaos” in supply chains.

The government claims that it has capacity for 375,000 tests a day.
However, the actual number of people being testedd_ for the coronavirus stalled to just 437,000 people a week at the start of the month — equivalent to just 62,000 a day."

< these latter figures are puzzling as they don't match the dashboard ones >

@Toomanyapplesinthefruitbowl

We’re an excellent example of the school scenario - a child in one class had a clearly v unwell child on first day of term (but sent them in as the covid test was negative). By the end of the first week, 7 households with a child in that class are self isolating and waiting for a test result because their child now has the same nasty cold (and a high temperature). Impacting on so many children throughout the school.

That's something that really hasn't been considered: That a normal cold can cause, in this case I'd guess, between 20 and 40 people to have to isolate and test.

Are any schools doing temperature checks on the way in?

A very few schools are doing temperature checks, the vast majority are not as it is not recommended in the DfE guidance.

Are any schools doing temperature checks on the way in?

No as big in guidelines as pp put. But dc private nursery is. I get it on her daily report.

DS is in pre-school attached to a primary. They do temperature checks for all age groups and so does one state primary we walk past; they also have asked all parents to wear masks at pick-up and drop-off. I don't know if the other primary we walk past does but I know one secondary school near here definitely doesn't, but kids are optionally allowed to wear masks and a high proportion of the kids seem to be wearing them even out in the street, but they are only allowed masks not scarves nor bandanas around the face.

We’re an excellent example of the school scenario - a child in one class had a clearly v unwell child on first day of term (but sent them in as the covid test was negative). By the end of the first week, 7 households with a child in that class are self isolating and waiting for a test result because their child now has the same nasty cold (and a high temperature). Impacting on so many children throughout the school.

Same is happening at my DD's school. And it will impact on teachers too, which will be a big problem if they can't get tests.

What should be happening differently do people think? Should heads and their deputies have more power to temperature check and exclude any other type of unwell child even when it isn't covid? ( And shouldn't they be able to send unwell kids home anyway regardless of covid? )

@MRex

What should be happening differently do people think? Should heads and their deputies have more power to temperature check and exclude any other type of unwell child even when it isn't covid? ( And shouldn't they be able to send unwell kids home anyway regardless of covid? )

I think stricter excluding of unwell children would be really sensible at this time, and checking temperatures also.

I think any child with cold / GI symptoms should be kept off and Ofsted should ditch recording attendance as part of an inspection to give headteachers the power to decide what is best for their communities right now.

That's something that really hasn't been considered: That a normal cold can cause, in this case I'd guess, between 20 and 40 people to have to isolate and test.

It’s also the ripple effect - we’re a medical household. Because we had to self isolate as a result of one of our children catching a cold, we couldn’t work. This meant a number of people who had already isolated for 13 days had their operations cancelled. I’m not saying our jobs are more important than others, just that repeated isolation has impact right across society!

Has anyone else had this screen come up from gov.uk? I've missed it from different searches and my history but I still get the same error message. I know today's results won't be published yet so will try later.

@Toomanyapplesinthefruitbowl

I think any child with cold / GI symptoms should be kept off and Ofsted should ditch recording attendance as part of an inspection to give headteachers the power to decide what is best for their communities right now.

This makes a lot of sense to me. At this time Heads should not have to be worrying about absence figures

@Toomanyapplesinthefruitbowl

That's something that really hasn't been considered: That a normal cold can cause, in this case I'd guess, between 20 and 40 people to have to isolate and test.

It’s also the ripple effect - we’re a medical household. Because we had to self isolate as a result of one of our children catching a cold, we couldn’t work. This meant a number of people who had already isolated for 13 days had their operations cancelled. I’m not saying our jobs are more important than others, just that repeated isolation has impact right across society!

I thought that you only had to isolate if your child had a positive test?! Surely they should test medics rather than leave them to isolate when they have not been in contact with a confirmed case.

New Scottish figures:
244 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Scotland in the past 24 hours - 3.7% of newly tested individuals

Up from 221 yesterday.