Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

I am thinking sewage reports may be a more useful surveillance tool than the ONS testing. I am wondering if MRex got any responses to her queries. If I remember correctly, she tried to find out when the information on sewage testing would be made available to the public.

@Prokupatuscrakedatus
Link top right here is the latest quarterly report of the Kita (childcare) COVID study (long !)
Unfortunately, too many underlines in report name to post that link directly

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html?nn=13490888

I don't think sewage would have anything like the detail, controlled samples etc
and is an experimental technique with very limited validation

ONS surveillance is much more reliable, comprehensive and important

However, sewage reports would definitely be interesting and possibly useful, so I want that too

people wanting to go abroad

There should be no-one getting this as part of the testing count, it is not available - obviously people lie to get a test, the worried well as much as any one else, but you don't get the proof that most countries need anyway from an NHS test anyway do you?

Posters on MN and btl papers have commented as if it is a normal thing in the UK, when going to some countries that require a negative test for entry.
iirc, they select "other" for reasons
I hope there is not a specific "journey abroad" under "other" but I've never looked at UK test booking.

Thanks BigChoc for the link to the new report.

Thanks, Choc, for new thread.

If the UK remains short of tests, better to set more stringent test requirements and exclude worried well, or people wanting to go abroad

I think that is going to be crucial, at least in the short to medium term.

I heard some Caribbean countries and China require a negative test cert on entry.
Several countries offer a choice of presenting your own negative certificate, or have a test when you arrive.

Neither way is satisfactory, as someone could obviously be infected between a neg test and arrival,
and if tested at the airport, probably isn't going to voluntarily isolate on holiday until receiving test results.

I hope there is not a specific "journey abroad" under "other" but I've never looked at UK test booking.

There is not, it is not a valid reason for a test, people are fraudulently getting tests if anyone is doing it, and I do not believe any evidence is provided that is sufficient for countries that require one - timing's going to be difficult too.

Good NHS video to forward to anyone confused about surface spread or aerosol / masks

mobile.twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1304120983847153665

@sirfredfredgeorge

I hope there is not a specific "journey abroad" under "other" but I've never looked at UK test booking.

There is not, it is not a valid reason for a test, people are fraudulently getting tests if anyone is doing it, and I do not believe any evidence is provided that is sufficient for countries that require one - timing's going to be difficult too.

... This was latest info from Frankfurt airport to departing travellers

www.frankfurt-airport.com/en/transfer-at-frankfurt-airport/covid-19/coronavirus-testing-at-the-airport.html

"Some countries, including China, require arriving passengers to present a negative PCR test result that they have obtained before traveling"

My neighbours used an NHS to enter somewhere the other week. They are actively encouraging it on travel forums.

@HairyFloppins

My neighbours used an NHS to enter somewhere the other week. They are actively encouraging it on travel forums.

... I have seen several comments from people doing this I don't know whether it is encouraged / allowed or if they are lying to get a test

Re tests:
I just printed out the leaflet for tests in Germany (from the BZgA so the same for all Länder) for DS:
I need to 1) have symptoms + 2) to have been in a hot spot within the last 14 days or to have been in contact with sb diagnosed in the last 14 days and then I have to phone my GP to get instructions.
So the authorities approach people and test them or I go to them with a valid reason and they decide if I get tested.

Placemarking for the quality of the info ... thanks, BigChoc

The posts on mumsnet that I've seen have been people getting 2 tests on returning from abroad; one was adamant that she was doing the right thing because the government advice was wrong, day 2 or day 8.

There are a lot of people who don't have trust in the government, so they are unwilling to listen and make up their own rules. I'm not sure that every country has a group like Independent Sage advocating different advice on symptoms and testing that leaves some people genuinely confused.

I know this anecdote and not data, but I was positively encouraged to make up a symptom in order to 'get a test' when there were positive cases in my boys' school and the school erroneously contacted families suggesting their kids could come back to school if they tested negative after they had been identified as contacts of the positive cases.

Much angst, confusion and stress ensued...

Thanks, Prokup
If one of DS's classmate tests positive, I presume you all get told to test at that stage ?

What is the current German case threshhold for closures of class or school, do you know ?
I wonder if that is dependent on which state you live in, since the infection rate has been very different in e.g. Bavaria vs Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Is anybody able to explain to me why the Zoe app data varies so much from the gov.uk data for my local town? Zoe says 48 cases, gov.uk 30.

No, asymptomatic contacts of positive cases do NOT get tested. They just need to self-isolate for 14 days.
If they DO develop symptoms, then they would get tested.
The school's information was incorrect.
Testing of asymptomatic individuals has a much higher false negative rate than than from symptomatic people.

France

10,561 new cases (9,843 yesterday)
72 new clusters, making a total of 772 clusters being investigated
17 deaths

7-day admissions = 2,432, with 417 into ICU - which is very concerning

In the UK, (ICNARC) currently 40% die in ICU, (RKI) 24% in Germany - I don't know French % ==> anyone ?
Even if as low as Germany, that is ICU adding on average at least 15 to the daily deaths;
then add on any deaths at home or in care homes

Letter from PHE and NHS Test and Trace to school and college leaders

Testing
Shielding individuals

www.gov.uk/government/publications/letter-from-phe-and-nhs-test-and-trace-to-school-and-college-leaders/letter-from-phe-and-nhs-test-and-trace-to-school-and-college-leaders

French PM Jean Castex announced that France is reducing the self-isolation period from 14 to 7days because this is "when there is a real risk of contagion."

French authorities reportedly hope the shorter isolation period will be easier to comply with and enforce.

The entire German national amateur boxing team, plus coaches and other staff, has been infected with coronavirus at a training camp in Austria.

They will all be allowed to travel home after a 14-day quarantine.
No serious illness reported so far

Useful summary / comparison of how many people you can meet and where, from Monday,
in the 4 UK nations: