Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

In GM and I think Andy Burnham has come across very well in this. He resists random “restrictions” and tries to think about things more intelligently. It’s clear to all of us in GM that local testing combined with proper localised test and trace functions (including door knocking etc which is definitely happening to a degree) is what is needed, along with very specific business closures where they are particularly risky/non-compliant

Also, sadly, we do have a lot of idiots having parties etc. Police are doing an increasingly good job of shutting these down but they have a big job on their hands.

Ecosse i think its irresponsible to give a platform to a mobile phone salesman, for him to say that track is not needed and the virus is getting milder.

There are 4 panellists on QT. We had Labour, Tory, a Epidemologist from Oxford Uni who believes the virus has never been dangerous and founder of a mobile phone company who thinks the virus is getting less serious.

How is that balanced? The Oxford professor may differ in her view from many of her peers but at least she understands what she is talking about.

Very one sided on a program which should have a balanced panel.

Apologies, there were others, but i turned off after a few minutes.

Burnham has also been very vocal about the fact that a large part of the problem (though who knows how large?) is people being told to isolate for a fortnight, without necessarily getting Covid, and not being paid for it. I think people will be compliant if they have actually got Covid but you can’t expect people to isolate for a fortnight repeatedly for no pay or SSP in many cases. No wonder so many are trying to get tests so that they know they are negative. This is a major flaw in the government’s strategy and the government seems to be completely ignoring the issue.

Completely agree @Frazzled2207. I emailed my (very Tory) MP about it a month ago and just got the usual back about SSP and applying for Universal Credit.

I tried a Google and this article says virus is excreted from up to 1 33 days after infection:

Isn't that why it's not used - it continues to be found when an individual is not infectious by any other route, and it's completely impractical to have people isolating when they are not infectious.

@sirfredfredgeorge - maybe, but thresholds could indicate infectiousness? I can't seem to find any scientific analysis suggesting why it's not been considered.

@Timeforanotherusername

The epidemiologist was not saying the virus is not dangerous. She said it is not dangerous for the vast majority of people- this is very clear from the statistics.

Her view is that we now have a very clear picture of exactly who is at risk and the focus should be on protecting them.

Importantly, she is not suggesting that we just shut the vulnerable away. We could for example have a testing system to facilitate visits from family- would this not be a better use of capacity than testing every DC who gets sniffles?

@littleowl1 I love your emails - could there be an option to have them less than once a day - maybe on a set day every week?

@Frazzled2207
Agree on both counts.

I'm not anywhere near Manchester, but Andy Burnham has seemed very on top of things from a very early stage. I've went through phases of liking him and disliking him (I thought he was very dismissive of YC during the leadership race, which put me off him), but he seems very good as mayor, from the outside at least.

And absolutely on the SSP. I've heard of an employer completely abusing this to cut staff costs too i.e. enforcing two weeks isolation on SSP for employees because their child has been sent home from school with a cold, even after a negative test. It is just ensuring people lie about symptoms.

@CaptainMerica
@Augustbreeze
Ridiculous isn’t it. And it will disproportionately affect the low paid and women. Middle class men far more likely to be able to simply wfh and not miss out financially.

Yup. It would need to be for "if a household member" has symptoms/a positive test as well of course.

Didnt watch question time and Oxford have been shown wrong so often I tend to ignore them/ take with a packet of salt. Anyone want to find me a link to Oxford idiot to debunk?

As for "we can identify those at risk" - possibly if we took blood from every single person in the population and ran tests on it, not otherwise. And what lab would process all those tests?

New thread needed!

@BigChocFrenzy the thread is nearly full....!

(These threads seem to be filling quicker at the moment!!)

[quote MRex]@NeurotrashWarrior - early December.

The BBC had a video about Valencia sewage testing, nothing new but in itself it's interesting that they are still saying they can find covid in excretions from the first day of infection and can narrow it down by area. Which made me wonder - would a faeces test be potentially more effective for covid? It won't have been rejected just for being gross, so it must be that it takes too long to process or uses too many reagents or something? I tried a Google and this article says virus is excreted from up to 1 33 days after infection: www.cebm.net/study/covid-19-persistent-viral-shedding-of-sars-cov-2-in-faeces/. Has anybody seen anything about why we aren't testing faeces instead for less false negatives? (At least for home tests, toddlers etc it could even be easier.)[/quote]
It's quite hard to collect stool samples _correctly.
But you do have a point that for babies, toddlers it would be perfect. Nappies and potties make it easy.

In the case of the North East, it is understood one of the government's biggest concerns was the scale of the increase in cases from a 'standing start', however, rather than simply the current case numbers.

Yes in Newcastle we had zero cases for the last week of July. Right up to mid August it was all very low numbers.

7 day daily average was around 2 till beginning of August. We were well below the national average for cases per 100,000.

Then mid August the daily average started to go up to 7. End of sept daily average is around 30, some days much higher, but many can't get tests, and schools have only been back two weeks.

NT went up sharply just at the start of sept.

It's all been v sudden and not helped by lack of tests.

I am a little confused regarding the app that tells you how many cases in your area. I know of 3 people that tested positive in my home town in the last week but everyday the app says 0 cases, is there a significant lag as if I personally know of 3 close friends then there must be a lot more positives in the town I would have thought.

@Jenasaurus it's currently showing 7-13 September. It's diff to see but it's in page heading

➡️ NEW thread: 📉 📊

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4026900-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-19?watched=1

@NeurotrashWarrior - I agree re the NE as I also watch the figures there). I’ve been really shocked as to how it has rocketed so quickly and also pretty widespread - although I obviously understand exponential growth. I do agree though that’s south Northumberland/Newcastle/Durham in particular are very closely linked due to work/living patterns

@NeurotrashWarrior

In the case of the North East, it is understood one of the government's biggest concerns was the scale of the increase in cases from a 'standing start', however, rather than simply the current case numbers.

Yes in Newcastle we had zero cases for the last week of July. Right up to mid August it was all very low numbers.

7 day daily average was around 2 till beginning of August. We were well below the national average for cases per 100,000.

Then mid August the daily average started to go up to 7. End of sept daily average is around 30, some days much higher, but many can't get tests, and schools have only been back two weeks.

NT went up sharply just at the start of sept.

It's all been v sudden and not helped by lack of tests.

When did "Eat out to help out" begin? And the pubs reopening? That's where I'd be immediately targeting my lockdown.

London is rising again but at a lower leave. I wonder if widespread and uncontrollable transmission of the virus feb March has helped the south in the longterm but the north was more protected by lockdown having less spread to start is now seeing the mass rise of cases Only time will tell.

Where I live one town is doing worse than others but I'm south east where commuting to London was common until mid March. Now everyone that can is still home working.