Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

BigChoc
If sb in DS course groups tests positive and DS develops symptoms he needs to ask for a test and to isolate as then instructed (the symptoms + contact rule) usually for a period of 14 days.
No cases have been reported from DS school, so I do not know how it works in practice.

I understand the need to limit the available tests to symptomatic people rather than the worried well but that letter from PHE to schools listing examples of pupil illnesses that should not be tested (sore throat, headache and stomach ache) lists three Covid-19 symptoms

Interesting Japanese study (Hitoshi Oshitani and team) trying to identify the typical superspreader (young < 30, female and enjoying the nightlife / clubbing) - like happened in Garmisch 1 person infecting 32 others.

I think the point with respect to testing and symptoms is that, as I understand it, the evidence shows that whilst headache, sore throat, stomachs ache etc can be symptoms of Covid, in almost all circumstances one of the three "testable" symptoms will also be present.

So if you just have a headache, no need for a test. If you have a headache and a cough, you need a test.

Placemarking again. Sorry, not contributing much, but fascinated and grateful for all your input.

We are looking at this at my work and I wanted to share this with you lot for feedback!
lite.gavurin.com/Lite/Dashboard/428

Obvs this is NE specific but the it's interactive so you can view other areas

That’s very interesting about the French isolation period reducing to 7 days.

I wonder if we’ll see similar measures being adopted elsewhere.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/back-to-school
Apologies if already posted as I dip in and out of these threads, but this report from Zoe suggests common Covid symptoms in children vary significantly compared to adults. It suggests that if people stick rigidly to the government's official testing criteria, less than half of positive cases in children will get picked up. I think the government really does need to revise its testing criteria.

I agree with you LilyPond2 at least for children, and parents and teachers should be made more aware of how symptoms can present in children

Sorry if this is late to post about test availability.
Towards the end of the last thread @BigChocFrenzy commented about the difficulty of having enough tests if everyone was eligible. On a local FB group this week there have been complaints from symptomatic people, unable to find any local tests, along with comments from a lot of people saying their employers insist on them being tested weekly to be allowed to work. My impression was this seemed to be mainly from private care agencies and care homes and the workers are complying with this as they are on zero or low hours contracts so will not be paid otherwise. While I can understand the need to protect the vulnerable I'm not sure if this is the best use of NHS testing and funding

Does the care home testing come under pillar 1 or pillar 2 testing? The weekly testing for care home staff is a government strategy to prevent it getting back into care homes.

If it’s pillar 1, and I think it is, it shouldn’t have any affect the symptomatic people that need a test.

When you book a test it asks you where you work, what job you do. You can't choose education and student.

Lily, yes I've been increasingly concerned about that.

We've had emails from school via local phe about main symptoms and what's likely to be a cold. Which is fine, but a lot of info graphics are listing sore throat as not Covid, where as it can be a common symptom.

.

Ooh stats that's handy. I'm NE.

Likypond2 I agree re symptoms differing in children but no specific criteria for testing to take this into account. Do most other countries have different criteria for testing children from the main 3?

Our school initially had a list of symptoms we couldn’t send children in with which took into account the Zoe app symptoms found in children. I notice they have changed this to the basic 3 symptoms for adults now so I suspect either they found it too hard to logistically police it or they got complaints so gave up on it.

Reastie, schools are being directed to do this by phe, reading between lines and the emails we've received.

It's very confusing though. Ds had a headache, and sore throat, then a runny nose. Now onto his chest as he has asthma. It's dry as asthmatic coughs often are.

I believe it's a cold. However, should he get tested?

As he has a cough then yes. Probably a cold by the sounds of it but as he has the cough he should have a test.

I don’t think that a wider set of symptoms was too hard to police for schools - it’s also ( I presume) that with a longer list many children would start to miss a lot of school. Particularly if you also were saying siblings should stay off as well ( and if you weren’t re siblings for some symptoms but were for others It becomes nonsensical).

The Zoe app is also just one source of data ( which itself is not perfect and hasn’t been without challenges) - the government will be looking at many. Although I do appreciate other countries also list more symptoms. Some of this is also presumably back to how the U.K. is delivering access to tests ( which in turn is linked to its own resources - so self administered unlike say France) and capacity. I also wonder ( but this is speculation) if you’d get lower levels of compliance with an even wider symptom set.

That's very interesting news about the reducing isolation period in France. It would be fascinating to know how many more people comply with seven days against the number of people who infect in days 8-14.

@CalmYoBadSelf this is anecdote but I was very frustrated when there was a positive test in DH's office and they were all asked to get a test. Local public health advised no one needed to isolate as social distancing had been well maintained (a handful in during August in a very large office) but the employer still sent them all home with an instruction to get a test and come back if it was negative.

I don't see why parents couldn't be required to keep children off school with the longer lost of symptoms just until they're better. They might develop one of the symptoms that does trigger a test in this time, and surely a sick child shouldn't be in school anyway? Would be easy enough for the government to mandate this too - lower risk symptoms = stay at home til you're better. (The list does not include a runny nose so I don't buy the line about children missing too much school)

I’ve been trying to get data on Scottish school trend. Could only find this FT article FT concerns dissipating

I think they should get information from each family on return to school after a bubble is closed on who in the family got symptoms. Israel collated data on close contacts (low) it seems a key piece of information.

I agree @Firefliess. In an ideal world, there could be grades of isolation:

1. full isolation 14 days and stay home for household members of covid case, shopping delivered, do not go out for any reason
2. full isolation 14 days but can go out once a day to exercise direct contacts of covid case (family, friends playing)
3. stay home but can go out once a day to exercise if "near" contact of just one covid case e.g. wider class; return if no more cases within a week
4. stay home for a week if have wider symptom list only and nobody else in house tests positive.

In practice, many would claim they didn't understand and do whatever the least effort is. So everyone has to be on the highest restriction level. It'll be interesting to see if France get by ok on 7 days.

Is it an issue that the test info doesn't allow you to record if it's for a child who is at school?

You have to put in their occupation