Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

@NeurotrashWarrior

Ooh stats that's handy. I'm NE.

The dashboard is interactive so you can focus in on certain areas and change areas etc. Once you've made your dashboard the data is automatically updates each week too.

Actually that FT article is a bit old.

But still think we should collate data.

[[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54131591 BBC on Scotl
and figures]] - low cf England but rising

The stats for deaths in ICU in France are really vague. I’ve read several articles where they’re discussing what it could be. The director of public hospitals In Paris estimates that for Paris it’s 25-35%. REVA (European research group for artificial ventilation) put it at 30-40% for the whole of France.

It’s a question that’s worried the French authorities, but they’ve been singularly useless at measuring it with any precision.
Dr Raoult (maverick from Marseille), claimed it was 43% for Paris region, which caused real concern at the time, before he was proven to have used unreliable data. So generally it looks like we’re using the AP-HP data for Paris, and REVA for the rest of the country.

We had rumours last week that they would reduce isolation to 5-8 days. At least they’ve decided nearer 8 than 5.... I disagree with it, but (cynic-alert) it’s going to cost them a lot less, given that they’ve announced they’ll pay 84% of one parent’s salary if their child is sent home to isolate.

Thankyiu

New thread already!?!

Obviously the decrease in isolation time is potentially concerning, but the government commitment to pay almost full salary to the parent of an isolating child is so sensible.

(in France, not here....)

Thousands of people with COVID-19 are taking tests that will never be analysed, warn government docs marked "official sensitive"

"The govt claims it has capacity for 375,000 tests a day

But the actual number of people being tested for coronavirus is closer to 62,000 a day

Randox, a Northern Ireland firm, pays Tory MP Owen Paterson as a consultant. It won a £133m testing contract unopposed at the start of lockdown

It disposed of 12,401 used swabs in a single day on 2nd Sept

The firm has voided more than 35,000 used test kits since August"

more about Randox

and also- Randox sponsor the Grand National at Aintree, the Jockey Club's biggest day. Dido Harding is a senior member of the Jockey Club board.

Really interesting thread, glad to have come across it. Thanks to all contributors.

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2405384829767742&id=100008887449805
This Facebook post has a really interesting interview with a member of Sage. Calling the government to stop giving mixed messages and support those self isolating.

I agree @MRex that ideally you would have a graded system for symptoms. Although I have to say my DC would be at home for the symptoms on the wider list anyway as they’d be unwell!

Who knows but given the difficulty schools have with enforcing the existing rules re stomach bugs plus the initial difficulty we’ve seen this week at our school ( anecdotally) with parents didn’t understand the current restrictions I do think we have to go for the simplest and most restrictive. I’m not even sure whether some kind of public information push would make a difference.

I don't see why parents couldn't be required to keep children off school with the longer lost of symptoms just until they're better. They might develop one of the symptoms that does trigger a test in this time, and surely a sick child shouldn't be in school anyway? Would be easy enough for the government to mandate this too - lower risk symptoms = stay at home til you're better. (The list does not include a runny nose so I don't buy the line about children missing too much school)

Agree, I've always wondered, if there was a zero tolerance policy on very sick children in school (so not just runny nose), whether overall attendance would go up or down. I suspect up as it would reduce transmission to other children and disease burden in the school overall.

The problem is, it's an inconvenience to have children at home so people send them in with fevers (dosed up on calpol) which isn't good for the rest of the children, for public health or for the child's education.

Maybe schools should make vitamin tablets available to all children to build up their defences against colds!

Here, it's a shit show. Wtf has happened?

Ilove, but as a teacher I can't do that, nor can many hcps etc. I'd have been off work this week with ds2, and potentially next week with ds1.

Ive been told that in Germany, certainly where a friend lives, poorly children with colds are told not to come in till most symptoms have lessened.

But I also understand that fewer households have both parents working than here (I remember bIgChoc mentioned it a long time ago, apologies if I have that wrong.)

@EducatingArti

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2405384829767742&id=100008887449805 This Facebook post has a really interesting interview with a member of Sage. Calling the government to stop giving mixed messages and support those self isolating.

Is there another link? That doesn't open.

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2405384829767742&id=100008887449805

It works for me!???!!

Not sure if this has already been posted (apologies if so) but the latest guidance from the Royal College of Paediatrics suggests that those children presenting with cold symptoms, including sore throat, should only be tested if they also have a high temp:
www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/covid-19-talking-children-families-about-returning-school-guiding-principles

I get finger mouse 🐭

How odd! Ok I'll see what I can do!

That's helpful fading.

www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008887449805
Ok. This guy called Andy Williams has posted it. It is about 12th post down on his page.

Neurotrash What do you usually do? Teachers and HCPs must have kids that get sick normally too, with norovirus or whatever else is doing the rounds?

Possibly the government needs to subsidise businesses to employ more staff / more bank staff to cover for employees who'll need to take more time off to be at home with sick kids this year.

The weird thing about the payments for parents (in France) is that they’ve said it’ll only be until 1st November, then they’ll be reducing it. That’s the beginning of the second half term. So there’s some speculation about why that is, especially as the view is that there’s more likely to be problems the other side of half term holidays. It remains speculation, but people wonder if it’s because the government foresee larger scale local lockdowns, so parents will be at home anyway.

It’s a very helpful scheme though, and will help increase compliance.