Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I'll try and follow this one! Thanks

Thanks for the thread

Thanks bigchoc!

Thank you.

@BigChocFrenzy you mentioned a pattern that suggested German cases increased towards the end of the typical holiday season and are now reducing. How high did they go before they started to reduce please?

[quote RaggieDolls]@BigChocFrenzy you mentioned a pattern that suggested German cases increased towards the end of the typical holiday season and are now reducing. How high did they go before they started to reduce please? [/quote]

Rolling average 1352 (ours is currently 1812)

Highest single day was 1737 on Aug 21st.

Thanks @HoldingTight. Until today that might have been comparable. I guess we will have to see what happens to the average over the next few days.

Thank you 😊

.

Current position for the NW LAs; have taken 28 Aug to 03 Sep as the most recent seven day period, although in reality there could be more cases to add to that still. The two weeks prior to that are of course pretty much complete bar any odd case adjustments. The 4-5 Sep case number is shown just for reference.

I had to go back to the source data for several LAs just to double check the figures as I was quite startled by the upward movement levels.

Pendle may be seeing some progress but beyond that difficult, bar the very low case level districts in Cumbria, to see any positives.

Conversely the South West, as it has largely done throughout, shows a very different picture.

Plymouth has seen cases linked to returning holiday makers and does have the highest case rate in the SW, up quite a bit from its usual low levels. However it is still only at less than 15 cases per 100,000 for the week, and 103 LAs nationally have a level higher than that.

Swindon looks to be making positive steps, although whether a town that is nearer to York than Penzance should really be in the South West is a whole other story. Shift it a couple of miles along the M4 towards London and it would be in the South East!

The table would be nice to show but it looks like I may have reached the daily picture limit.

The population of Germany is 24% higher than the UK, so rather than comparing the maxima,
it would be better to compare the max 7-day incidence level - which also smooths out reporting blips -

Germany reached a max of 10.6 / 100,000

However, we need more data than a 7-10 day German trend to say the holiday peak drops away
(as Germany's cases could start to rise again !)

Placemarking, and thanks yet again.

The % positivity rise is concerning

• it means the rise in cases is not due to testing more, but rather indicates an increasing community infection level

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-2-988-new-covid-19-cases-reported-in-uk-12065288

Hancock said that while more people were being tested,
"the proportion that tests positive is going up as well"

He said it was important that everyone "does their bit" by observing social distancing,
and insisted that schools and workplaces are "Covid-secure".

I am beyond words and anger on the gov insisting that schools are safe. They don't give proof and even by layman logic they are not - at least not in their current state.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I am beyond words and anger on the gov insisting that schools are safe. They don't give proof and even by layman logic they are not - at least not in their current state.

Me too tomorrow is first day back for our D.C. and I'm shaking inside at this situation

How the hell are they COVID secure when there's huge bubbles and no social distancing?? Dd1 says the corridors are packed with people pushing and shoving like normal. It's not possible to separate the year groups between lessons so the whole school is a giant conga line round the one way system and lots of people not wearing masks. Ds has woken up with a sore throat this morning. Temp was 37.2 last night so nothing to get excited about there but I'm tempted to keep him off anyway. He says his tummy hurts a little too. He's only 5 and doesn't lie about being poorly.

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy

Completely agree @doubleshotespresso and @TheSunIsStillShining I can’t see it lasting long, people will start voting with their feet if nothing else and surely they will need to bring shielding back soon. They messed up protecting the vulnerable in March - to me it literally felt and feels criminal - surely they won’t risk it again for much longer. I’m starting to wonder if Boris has actually loss the plot as in seriously loss the plot.

Anyway, sorry, data thread! Only meant to mark my place 🙄🤐

@Bercows

How the hell are they COVID secure when there's huge bubbles and no social distancing?? Dd1 says the corridors are packed with people pushing and shoving like normal. It's not possible to separate the year groups between lessons so the whole school is a giant conga line round the one way system and lots of people not wearing masks. Ds has woken up with a sore throat this morning. Temp was 37.2 last night so nothing to get excited about there but I'm tempted to keep him off anyway. He says his tummy hurts a little too. He's only 5 and doesn't lie about being poorly.

If you can I’d keep him off, absolutely nothing to lose x

Following

He seems ok in himself but not eating this morning as not hungry. He can normally eat 2-3 weetabix no problem so it's not like him at all.

Tbanks for new thread

I'm sat here wondering if I'm being overly paranoid or if I should keep them off and get us all tested. It's no issue to me to keep them off as I'm a SAHM. Dds will hate me though 🙄

It's extremely hard to know what to do bercows. He needs to stay at home probably, as is poorly. Beyond that I'm not sure. See how he is and then if worse I'd try to get him a test personally but maybe send the others in?