Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Why do you think the IFR has anything to do with herd immunity, BigChocFrenzy? I think the two things are orthogonal.

"Or the daily capacity number is made up"

Not completely a porky, but probably looked at theoretical maximum lab capacity when noone is off sick or on vacation,
everyone is on maximum overtime
no delays waiting for test kits, reagents etc
all machines are working, with none down for maintenance, no software bugs
and when all swab samples are delivered promptly in an optimum distribution among labs

It's maybe something that could happen for a brief 2-3 weeks period in an emergency situation

@covidstuff

Why do you think the IFR has anything to do with herd immunity, BigChocFrenzy? I think the two things are orthogonal.

... IFR is very important when considering the cost in lives to achieve herd immunity

When deciding on a strategy, cost in lives has to be considered,
which is why herd immunity is normally discussed in relation to a vacine

@BigChocFrenzy that Peru figure needs to be treated with caution, the R0 for measles is 12-18, (as opposed to 2.5/3 for Covid 19) and that has a herd immunity level of 93/5%

2948 new cases today. Was really naively hoping yesterday was going to be a once off and today would be noticeably lower

Thanks for new thread

and also determines the need for a vaccine

COVID met that need, which is why the global effort on COVID vaccines is at a level that is orders of magnitude above all previous diseases
(and, being realistic, many of those lives are in developed countries, which are not used to high deaths from infectious diseases)

The admissions data page has changed. The English admissions for Wed 26 have changed to 124 ( was 79 this morning), nothing more up to date, and you can't get the previous days' admission anymore. However the cumulative incidence has changed to 114,119 on Saturday 5th. It was reported as 113,889 on Weds 26, suggesting there have been 230 admissions between those dates ( including the extra 48 on the 26th).

So nothing drastic happening to admissions yet.

[quote whatsnext2]@BigChocFrenzy that Peru figure needs to be treated with caution, the R0 for measles is 12-18, (as opposed to 2.5/3 for Covid 19) and that has a herd immunity level of 93/5%[/quote]
....
I stated these figures were for densely populated areas

Effective - not theoretical - herd immunity might be be quite different in an area with v low pop density in say Norway
vs a very cramped slum in a developing or emerging economy

Patients in hospital in England, up 18% - 537 from 454 on Weds 26th

English hospital admissions look worrying?

Average daily admissions over 7 days:

26th Aug (lowest) 45.1
5th Sept (latest) 65.3 - with 94 admissions on 5th.

Last four Saturday admissions:

5/9 94
29/8 52
22/8 25
15/8 38

Welsh and NI cases up today.

Interestingly all those figure have gone N/A for me on the dashboard now. So, maybe they were wrong....

Principles for Managing SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Associated with Higher Education ("Endorsed by SAGE")

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/914978/S07288PrinciplesforrManagingSARS-CoV-22TransmissionAssociateddwithHigherrEducation.pdf

• There is a significant risk that Higher Education (HE) could amplify local and national transmission, and this requires national oversight.
It is highly likely that there will be significant outbreaks associated with HE,
and asymptomatic transmission may make these harder to detect.

• It is essential to develop clear strategies for testing and tracing, with effective support to enable isolation.
Universities are good locations to pilot approaches such as population case detection (PCD).
Enhanced testing in response to suspected outbreaks is likely to be beneficial in detecting and preventing ongoing transmission.

• Safe provision of student education needs to be based on a hierarchy of risk

Dashboard is crazy for me atm

What is everyone else seeing ?

••• •••

Just whirling dots for me

I'm confused about the admission figures @HoldingTight- the cumulative increase isn't that much.

Please excuse the Weds 26th mentions, it should be 2nd. Fat fingers!!!

Snap, Neurotrash !
I've been hunting through PHE and DHSC, but no figures there yet either

@cathyandclare

I'm confused about the admission figures *@HoldingTight*- the cumulative increase isn't that much.

I think the data comes from different sources so seldom agrees exactly. The very knowledgable posters on here probably have a better explanation the numbers are similar enough to me to indicate a rise.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54056200 Bit of a spike happening in SE Wales, Caerphilly area 54.1 cases per 100,000. Locally the thought is we are heading for lockdown.
They set up a testing centre in Caerphilly for 4 days which is swamped, so no doubt the positive level will rise, several schools affected etc.

Weirdly I've had low grade cough for a week now upper back pain last night. Slight headache and my hives have kicked off again.

Wonder if it's a reinfection as it's same as I had in late feb but milder.

I'm going to try order a test in the morning

Just looking at where cases added, some of the bigger numbers

Brum 212

Bolton 45

Bradford 57

County Durham 33. (Note pop over 500,000)

Leeds 97 (pop almost 800,000)

Liverpool 72

Manchester 66

Newcastle 35

Preston 28 (pop 143,00)

Sheffield 49

Solihull 24

Sunderland 50

Tameside 30

Wirral 47

About 20 LAs had no additions as compared with typically circa 100 a couple of weeks back

My own LA has added more in the last couple of days than in the previous two months

Lots of dots on the dashboard - morse code? Or are more people in general trying to access it, and probably giving up when they just get the disco dots