Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@wheresmymojo

Hi all....I lurk on this thread to keep up with the latest picture - thanks so much to the regular contributors.

Just adding anecdata re: lack of tests available. Seems to be a real issue at the moment and not just in areas like around the Scots/England border.

I'm in Surrey in commuter-ville, my goddaughter went back to school last week but last night came down with something (presumably caught from school as no-one else has it and has been incubation period until last night).

Zero tests available.

Of course this means the rest of the bubble continue as normal with no isolation.

Who knows whether it's COVID or something else but if COVID then all the other kids are cracking on as normal...

I have heard peopme saying to complete trying for tests. I have not had to book any though so have no experience.

As for other kids still being in school, I guess even if the virus has been passed on, the results would be back before they become contagious.

And if child with symptoms is removed from class, there is not chance of further transmission from them.

Not ideal I know, but we can't isolate a whole class until positive test.

We do need to get testing sorted though. Its the only way we can manage this.

I agree that you can't isolate without a test as no child would ever actually be in school.

But yes....if people can't get tests then the whole thing falls apart.

Add this to the fact that not that many people are still socially distancing (or there's a significant proportion that aren't) means the only thing I can see that is different between now and March is the number of people working from home.

Which is what the Govt are putting pressure on people to stop doing 🤷🏻‍♀️

Thankfully most business leaders I know with a couple of notable exceptions have more bloody common sense and have basically ignored the Govt on this point.

Anyway...back to data... 🤐

Greater Manchester as of yesterday

To be fair there are other significant differences between March and now:

Mask wearing indoors
No big public events allowed
Households not allowed to mix (ok although some break this, many still follow it)

Oh heck, I can see us facing even more extra measures here in Salford. I've been so desperately missing seeing my nephews since March and had been enjoying socially distanced play with them in the park! Bet meeting others at social distance in public spaces is the next thing to be shut down rather than other things that would probably make much more difference!
My only consolation is that they have already done this in Bolton and it doesn't seem to be making the difference needed so they might have to take other ( better?) measures.
Does anyone agree with the guardian article upthread that cases in the NW were probably still at epidemic levels even after lockdown?

Another of the most important differences is the huge number of people working from home, so highly reduced work contact and reduced contact on public transport.

Every year there is a spike in respiratory virus as schools and Univ go back (aka freshers flu), although the young are at less risk of serious illness, infections will seep through to the more vulnerable.

How much these and the factors @Augustbreezeand others have mentioned balance each other out to influence Rt , remains to be seen. Birmingham and Bristol Southmeads Hospitals are both reporting higher Covid admissions now.

IloveJKRowling

It also has a knock on effect - her friends were social distancing in June, now they've started hugging 'because we're all sitting right next to each other anyway'

And this is the problem, also seen posted by parents on here with the same mindset. No concept of minimising the number of interactions or reducing some voluntary risky activities because one is having to do something else that carries risk.

Not necessarily data related, but there is an announcement related to travel at 3.30pm.

Who knows what they will say now. Will it be another u-turn re quanrantining. Surely not, as I think a substantial amount of cases now have been imported.

Pmk.

@EducatingArti. I put some tables yesterday towards the end of the last thread showing the LSOA breakdown, deprivation levels, plus a bit on age profile within each LSOA.

It’s difficult to comment though without seeing the confidential PHE report that the Graun refers to. I’d hope it would be put in the public domain soon as a full and open debate is needed.

The devil will be in the local authority level detail. But looking at the weekly stats since the peak

Oldham - lowest week still 16 cases per 100,000 and only two weeks have been below 20 per 100.000.

Manchester - 3 wks in July when it had rates just below 15 but these still double the overall England figure

Salford - did fall to only being just above the full England rate for two or three weeks.

Wigan - lower than England levels pretty much since June.

With all the focus when Leicester went really high some of the ongoing issues in some parts of the north west may have been lost from view?

@Timeforanotherusername

Not necessarily data related, but there is an announcement related to travel at 3.30pm.

Who knows what they will say now. Will it be another u-turn re quanrantining. Surely not, as I think a substantial amount of cases now have been imported.

Would/could the government ban flights to some destinations?

Anyone else joined UCLs Virus Watch study. Ive had the Zoe app for a while, not sure if this is any different.

Pre print of seroprevalence in area of Brazil about size of Italy ~ 40%, which authors postulate is approaching herd immunity.

Mask wearing and SD had limited statistical effect surprisingly , probably at best reducing Rt.

No difference in infection rates by age, sex, skin colour etc but limited statistical analysis.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463v1.full.pdf

No news on the sewage report. The coronavirus dashboard team replied to say they've heard about the project, but have no related data due to come onto the dashboard.

I can't figure out how to contact Ofwat apart from FOI or a complaint, I don't really feel this is either. Trying to look up other options.

I've tried Defra now for a sewage update... looks like the most likely option for who should get a report...

@MRex

I've tried Defra now for a sewage update... looks like the most likely option for who should get a report...

living our best lives xx

Haha. I toned down my enthusiasm a little, in case they thought I was a poo troll.

MRex - apologies if this has already been covered in the discussion about the sewage testing but the original article I saw in the BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53635692 mentions Environment Secretary George Eustice ([email protected]) and a Dr Andrew Singer from the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (Email: [email protected]) . Worth an email if DEFRA don't get back to you.

Giving another shout out for everyone's data input. Keeps me sane at the moment.

Lower number of positive tests in Scotland today, at 146, after 208 yesterday, but percentage of tests that are positive are creeping up. 2.4% today.

[quote whatsnext2]Pre print of seroprevalence in area of Brazil about size of Italy ~ 40%, which authors postulate is approaching herd immunity.

Mask wearing and SD had limited statistical effect surprisingly , probably at best reducing Rt.

No difference in infection rates by age, sex, skin colour etc but limited statistical analysis.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463v1.full.pdf[/quote]
"A total of 3289 individuals (80·6%) agreed to participate in the study"

If I remember my uni stat classes ... In a country of 200+ m I'd stay this is statistically insignificant cohort and is not representative.

Thanks @Fairineouf, I'll give Defra a few days first as they're usually quite responsive, if not those are my new targets!!

Place marking. Interesting to see how this new rise plays out over this month. I'm still worried that there is a ongoing risk of schools closing again at any minute.

That's an interesting report @whatsnext2, but:

1. Very low sampling number
2. I don't understand how they are defining herd immunity, they still have cases and deaths!
3. They were clear that those wearing masks have had less infection but then no correlation was looked at between those who've been infected and reduction in mask wearing - if they found 40% had it and 26% asymptomatic that's 30% who knew they'd had it, most likely candidates for who stopped wearing masks.

The Sunderland spike has hit a few primary schools so far.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/string-sunderland-schools-business-forced-18889408

@Bercows

I've just got the currently unavailable screen too.

Sorry to hear about DS & pissed off DD!

Not sure if anyone's mentioned it or not (I'm only as far as your post) but many of the testing sites are very very quiet. It seems to be a booking issues & the testing sites are testing if you just turn up. Might be worth a shot! Hope it's negative and you can get the girls back in ASAP!