Greater Manchester cases rising even more. What can be done?

[SistemaAddict]

I've been watching these for a while and despite local lockdowns the rates are going up. Bolton is bloody scary. I am just within the GM boundary and our rate has gone up from 8 to 13 in the space of about 3 days. Schools only went back 3 days ago and I can't see the figures improving. How can things be controlled when local half-assed lockdowns are not working and everyone is back in school? Will us shielded ones end up shielded again? At what point will schools close?

The figures are hard to interpret as an increase in positive tests can be a result of more tests or better targetted tests. Also it really matters how old the people are who test positive. Which numbers are you looking at?

But to answer your question directly, all they can do is increase the severity of the lockdown. Fingers crossed all round.

There us some thought that in some areas it is endemic, cases did not fall that much even through lockdown and other ones might not work so much in these areas.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/covid-19-could-be-endemic-in-deprived-parts-of-england

In the extreme case (which was in fact standard in same countries) infected people can be put up in hotel rooms with food deliveries by robot.

Well the article mentioned upthread said what was missing was more support.

Unless the government really want to enforce restrictions strictly then ultimately nothing can be done if people won't comply. We don't live in a China type country.

There's no public appetite for further restrictions and no stomach from the government to impose them / enforce them strictly. So all that can be done is to mitigate the impact.

The government won't do anything - their agenda all along has been to kill off people in poor and deprived areas.

@Pelleas

The Trafford break out was in Hale and Bowden. Not all of Greater Manchester is poor and deprived.

Lockdowns will not work. There should be targeted increased shielding of the vulnerable and the rest of society should be left to get on. If it's either isolate everyone or isolate grandparents (to put it crudely) that's just how it will have to be until a vaccine arrives.
If it ever does.
People's lives, especially young people's, have been sacrificed for long enough.

Schools will close if it becomes apparent that they’re significantly contributing to the spread. As they’ve only been back a very short amount of time in that area, the increase in numbers can’t realistically be attributed to schools reopening.
Unless the government decides
to provide significant funding to the area to enable people to stay at home without causing hardship, there probably isn’t a huge amount that can be done.

It's not just the elderly who were shielded. Lots of children and young people were too. I'm in my early 40s and was shielded.

And GM has plenty of lovely middle class leafy areas. I live in one of them. Sure there are areas of deprivation as with any city or large towns but GM is very diverse.

@outofthemoon

Lockdowns will not work. There should be targeted increased shielding of the vulnerable and the rest of society should be left to get on. If it's either isolate everyone or isolate grandparents (to put it crudely) that's just how it will have to be until a vaccine arrives. If it ever does. People's lives, especially young people's, have been sacrificed for long enough.

So the elderly spend what could be their last months/years in isolation? I don't know what the solution is but I really don't think it's that.

How do you define elderly for a start? DH is 65 and still working. I'm younger and have to go to work so are we supposed to isolate from each other (hypothetical question as we couldn't do it)? What if the elderly think 'sod it, I'm not doing it'? My uncle is 86 and has been going out and about as he's decided life's too short and I don't blame him.

Good for your uncle too. He's more likely to be hit by a bus than catch covid.

Well for a start i can tell you that people are not obeying the 'not meeting with people in household' rule, nor in Oldham are they doing the 'not mixing with anyone' rule. I work in Manchester and drive through different areas on my way to work, there is NO advertising anywhere of the rules. If I hadnt read it on local news I wouldnt know. How many of our youngesters actually read the news these days, there should be targeted adverts on social media, adverts in towns and cities, bars / restuarants have to get stricter on questionning who is coming in. The whole wear a mask if you want, give details if you want is a complete joke. Either we enforce it properly or we dont bother and just crack on.

Well what lockdown have they actually been under? As far as I can see my manchester family are still going about as normal, even so far as to travel to Scotland for the weekend

Hardly anyone is obeying anything.

If it gets really bad as we enter flu season and hospitalizations increase significantly, GPs will probably tell the elderly and vulnerable not to anticipate getting a hospital bed if they’re sick. This already happened in April with people being asked to sign Do Not Resuscitate forms.

*So the elderly spend what could be their last months/years in isolation? I don't know what the solution is but I really don't think it's that.

How do you define elderly for a start? DH is 65 and still working. I'm younger and have to go to work so are we supposed to isolate from each other (hypothetical question as we couldn't do it)? What if the elderly think 'sod it, I'm not doing it'? My uncle is 86 and has been going out and about as he's decided life's too short and I don't blame him.*

I don't blame your uncle either. Also I am 60 myself, dh is 62, both still working. But in this far from ideal situation, what else can be done? I would give support to those who need to shield, are advised to shield re. age, disability etc. Of course, that doesn't mean take away individual choice. It means make it possible if desired.

But I really do not believe these lockdowns are sustainable. Older people may have lost, hopefully temporarily, their younger family members in close contact, but young people have lost careers, university places, and much more. A lot has been asked of them. I don't think we can ask more.

I am fit and well, happy to take precautions and carry on working. My neighbour, post cancer, 10 years younger than me, is not, but shielding has ended for her.

I'm in Bolton and quite frankly it doesn't surprise me the rates are so high nobody gives a shit anymore ,when I go shopping either people don't wear masks or don't wear them correctly ,my house backs on to a large park there have been massive groups of lads playing football on the all weather pitch ,and even when the play park was locked off parents didn't care and ripped the tape off so their kids could play on the equipment ,just reading some of the comments on articles in the Bolton news about the virus just shows the level of ignorance and idiocy .

New York Times... 99% of people that tested positive for covid19 may actually have had such a weak load of the virus that they would be a symptomatic and unlikely to be contagious. The tests amplify the virus by 40x what's actually found. So as testing increases a rise in cases is not indicative of the situation. We should judge by Covid wards n ppl in intensive care and death rates.

I really don't know what else can be done. In our case DH has already said he won't be shielding (for want of a better description as I know many elderly weren't technically shielding) and I fully support him. For him to 'shield' properly, I wouldn't be able to go to work and that isn't an option, I have to.

They came out of lockdown too early, which led to more spread than desirable. The extra testing will have helped identify more cases, actual numbers look high but will come down if that's a high proportion of infected people. A little pessimism and concern is helpful for bringing down cases. Leicester, Blackburn, Oldham and Bradford have all looked stubbornly high for some time but then started to come down. Maybe I'm madly optimistic today, but looking at the patterns over time (coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases - the download spreadsheet from MSOA areas section)... I would say Bolton looks very similar, it's nearing its own mini peak for now. I hope it is.

@juneybean

Well what lockdown have they actually been under? As far as I can see my manchester family are still going about as normal, even so far as to travel to Scotland for the weekend

We're still allowed out and to travel!!

We just can't mix households- so no going to each other's houses or sitting in their garden. No going out for a meal or to the pub with people you don't live with .... in fact no gathering with anyone outside your household or bubble.

Stop the raves and parties.

Local lockdown isn't working.

Why?

Either people arent observing it or we are targeting the wrong groups.

Back in July/august the council pointed the finger at young people and specifically at Hale.

But they have gone very quiet on the more precise locations and ages of the positive tests in the last few weeks.

On the good side there is little change in hospital admissions.

The government won't do anything - their agenda all along has been to kill off people in poor and deprived areas

Hale and Bowden deprived areas.

LMFAO