Greater Manchester cases rising even more. What can be done?

[SistemaAddict]

I've been watching these for a while and despite local lockdowns the rates are going up. Bolton is bloody scary. I am just within the GM boundary and our rate has gone up from 8 to 13 in the space of about 3 days. Schools only went back 3 days ago and I can't see the figures improving. How can things be controlled when local half-assed lockdowns are not working and everyone is back in school? Will us shielded ones end up shielded again? At what point will schools close?

Why does it matter? Hospital admissions are not rising so its really immaterial. They only know as they are testing more...

I'm sorry, but the Cummings thing did have an impact. For lots of reasons, not related to intelligence. It will have even more of an impact as local lockdowns increase through the winter. People won't adhere to things if they are even slightly 'not scared', and they will use the fact that he did what he did, as an excuse. We all need childcare, we all need to see our families. If all the adults are honest about the risks, then that's that really.

My friend works on a COVID ward in GM. He had 7 patients last week and this week it's 30. So admissions are going up. It's not like March and April but they are increasing. And it's not surprising really going off what people are describing on here.

Perhaps that's related to a specific outbreak Bercows because they aren't showing an increase across the region.

Just small ups and downs since July.

@ohthegoats

I'm sorry, but the Cummings thing did have an impact. For lots of reasons, not related to intelligence. It will have even more of an impact as local lockdowns increase through the winter. People won't adhere to things if they are even slightly 'not scared', and they will use the fact that he did what he did, as an excuse. We all need childcare, we all need to see our families. If all the adults are honest about the risks, then that's that really.

It is consistently cited in polling and it is accepted it had an impact.

Compliance dropped almost immediately.

@GabriellaMontez

Perhaps that's related to a specific outbreak Bercows because they aren't showing an increase across the region.

Just small ups and downs since July.

Hmm maybe. Just seen that B'ham also reporting 'worrying rise' in admissions.

www.birminghammail.co.uk

Today seems a bit of a bad news day.

From another thread over 700 new cases in the NW today. It feels like a very negative day indeed. I try to be positive generally but I am a worrier. Being shielded added massively to that.

Could they not offer more support to the older and vulnerable, specific shopping time or help to set up online shopping, for example, and really help those people like they tried to during lockdown, given the rising cases.

then the rest can get herd immunity if they chose to ignore the rules.

There have been articles in the press that say the tests are so sensitive they pick up virus traces so small they can be either denatured or insignificant and not infectious.

I hope this is true.

It's impossible to compare stats because the status of data collected has changed so much since the beginning of the pandemic. Who knows how many cases there were then?

There have also been reports of lots of false negatives. It's difficult to know what to believe sometimes but today's figures are very worrying.

Also it seems cases from weeks ago can be picked up as well

UK having a big increase in cases today in general.

A further 2,988 cases of coronavirus have been reported in the UK in the past 24 hours, government data showed.

It is the highest daily number of new cases since 22 May and a rise of 1,175 on Saturday's figure,

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54050342

There hasn’t been an outbreak in Bowdon - there have been 4 cases reported in Bowdon in the past 12 weeks and in fact only 21 cases in Hale. The press just jumped on it in that one week.

Whatever restrictions are in place are clearly not being followed or are not working as transmissions are getting higher again. But as hospital admissions are still very low (around 3% of reported cases resulting in an admission vs around 30% at the height of lockdown) and deaths extremely low, then these cases are clearly very mild. Perhaps the govt needs to take a more rounded and balanced approach to this rather than focussing solely on one single metric to make all lockdown decisions

@outofthemoon

Lockdowns will not work. There should be targeted increased shielding of the vulnerable and the rest of society should be left to get on. If it's either isolate everyone or isolate grandparents (to put it crudely) that's just how it will have to be until a vaccine arrives. If it ever does. People's lives, especially young people's, have been sacrificed for long enough.

@outofthemoon what about the young people shielded and their families? They and siblings had to miss months of school, parents unable to work, shop for basic essentials etc to comply with shielding? Just keep all of us locked up indefinitely, to hell with our lives, mental health, the roof over our heads?

Yeah, great tactic 🙄

@outofthemoon

There have been articles in the press that say the tests are so sensitive they pick up virus traces so small they can be either denatured or insignificant and not infectious.

I hope this is true.

It's impossible to compare stats because the status of data collected has changed so much since the beginning of the pandemic. Who knows how many cases there were then?

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1302229547241418756

This thread from one of the independent sage people has some explanation about this.

People need to get over the Dominic Cummings stuff
nice try but his ridiculous performance will live on in our memories for ever

It is consistently cited in polling and it is accepted it had an impact.

Compliance dropped almost immediately.

Yep. So it's all very well saying people need to get over it yada yada, but the fact is that it had and continues to have an impact, and nothing was done to mitigate that. Actions have consequences.

I am in GM and have had people say to me that they're not sticking to the rules if he won't, joking that their mum is really an optician, that a particular party is fine if we all say we're going to Barnard Castle etc, as well as people who genuinely stopped trusting the government that week. If senior members of government all hurry to leap to the defence of someone who broke the law, which the trip to Barnard Castle undoubtedly did, that sends a powerful message. It's their fault.

justdontgothere

@outofthemoon what about the young people shielded and their families? They and siblings had to miss months of school, parents unable to work, shop for basic essentials etc to comply with shielding? Just keep all of us locked up indefinitely, to hell with our lives, mental health, the roof over our heads?

I know. It's awful. But what else can be done if lockdown of whole cities can't be enforced and doesn't give fast enough results? What is wrong with saying the vulnerable must be protected? I have a friend post cancer who is no longer protected and expected to go back to her job (in the NHS). I think that's worse.

Honestly... They need to close the pubs again

It's not pubs where I am, they are in the main part dead round here , it must be in households , or people not wearing masks , noywashing hands every 20 seconds or whatever itwas, plus at work, in supermarkets, in retail, in offices , those who've been at work all through, it's hard to keep 2 metres apart , it's easy to blame pubs but it's not that imo

@Pixel77

Could they not offer more support to the older and vulnerable, specific shopping time or help to set up online shopping, for example, and really help those people like they tried to during lockdown, given the rising cases.

then the rest can get herd immunity if they chose to ignore the rules.

They definitely could and should offer more help. Good health helps protect against getting seriously ill. We could set up fresh veg box delivery schemes to go to deprived families and individuals, refuges, and food backs, for example.

Unfortunately I'm not sure whether it's feasible to shield all the most extremely clinically vulnerable. So many diabetics are key workers including HCP. The NHS and schools rely on them.

We should've used our island advantage to do as other islands did - like NZ, Aus, and the Isle of Man. Strict but relatively short lockdown then reopen mostly as normal - but with temporary closed borders (for 6-12 months).

It's not impossible to still do this if we want a relatively normal Christmas and a better new year. One-two months proper lockdown now with closed borders, then open up pretty normally by Novemberish.
Depends on whether there's enough public will, and I suspect not. But it could be done.

ChanceChanceChance

I read that, but the argument is based on the assumption that Pillar 2 tests are only for people with symptoms, which is not true. My dds entire shared house were all sent tests when 1 person thought she had CV19 ( that was 6 tests, all negative, 1 person with suspected symptoms). That must happen often.

I really don't think Cummings has as much as effect as some (would like to) think.
Most people I know don't give a shit either way about him, but perhaps more relevant is that many people in the very deprived hotspots haven't even heard of him. I know this because a family friend comes from one of the deprived hotspots and still has family there. There is definitely a lack of education about Covid and social distancing, few masks including in shops, which is something that needs tackling. It's not a deliberate flouting of rules. It's a genuine lack of understanding.

One-two months proper lockdown now with closed borders, then open up pretty normally by Novemberish.
Depends on whether there's enough public will, and I suspect not. But it could be done.

Given that it is endemic in these areas already and did not drop much during lockdown I'm not sure that would help...not now.

I don't think it's right that the elderly and invulnerable should have to stay in. 90% of cases are in 20-49 year old.

Boris needs to be stricter. His pathetic attempts with restrictions dont work.
The area needs an enforced lockdown. No visiting and no travelling out with your town/city etc except for work.
And before ppl say how would i like it? We had a 3 week lockdown for lower numbers and last week we had 2 cases. So lockdown does work.

You also need mandatory checking in all pubs/restaurants/cafes etc.

And ppl need to stop being selfish and wear masks and socially distance, it's not hard.

I find using Dominic Cummings as an excuse is really immature.

@outofthemoon

ChanceChanceChance

I read that, but the argument is based on the assumption that Pillar 2 tests are only for people with symptoms, which is not true. My dds entire shared house were all sent tests when 1 person thought she had CV19 ( that was 6 tests, all negative, 1 person with suspected symptoms). That must happen often.

Yes I wondered about that. It is so hard to get a clear understanding of testing. Weird to think I am interested in all this stuff that in January I had never thought about!

@SheepandCow

I really don't think Cummings has as much as effect as some (would like to) think. Most people I know don't give a shit either way about him, but perhaps more relevant is that many people in the very deprived hotspots haven't even heard of him. I know this because a family friend comes from one of the deprived hotspots and still has family there. There is definitely a lack of education about Covid and social distancing, few masks including in shops, which is something that needs tackling. It's not a deliberate flouting of rules. It's a genuine lack of understanding.

Polling shows that Cummings had a clear impact. People consistently cite it as the point they stopped adhering.

It was a betrayal by Johnson. He should have put the country first. Let's fact it, he could have brought him.back after six months!