Greater Manchester cases rising even more. What can be done?

[SistemaAddict]

I've been watching these for a while and despite local lockdowns the rates are going up. Bolton is bloody scary. I am just within the GM boundary and our rate has gone up from 8 to 13 in the space of about 3 days. Schools only went back 3 days ago and I can't see the figures improving. How can things be controlled when local half-assed lockdowns are not working and everyone is back in school? Will us shielded ones end up shielded again? At what point will schools close?

My hope is that holiday makers are bringing it back and that as schools go back and holidays reduce we see a drop.

@OyOySavaloy

Good for your uncle too. He's more likely to be hit by a bus than catch covid.

This is not true, obviously.

Approaching 2000 /day positive tests, imagine if 2000 people per day were hit by a bus!

People just say anything that pops into their heads.

@Oliversmumsarmy

The government won't do anything - their agenda all along has been to kill off people in poor and deprived areas

Hale and Bowden deprived areas.

LMFAO

This!!!!

New York Times... 99% of people that tested positive for covid19 may actually have had such a weak load of the virus that they would be a symptomatic and unlikely to be contagious.

99% asymptomatic? That’s nonsense and not what the NYT are saying at all!

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-factcheck.amp.html

@GabriellaMontez

My hope is that holiday makers are bringing it back and that as schools go back and holidays reduce we see a drop.

How does this work the people in deprived areas are certainly not picking it up on holiday.

I think this is a bit optimistic, sorry

I doubt they’ll close the schools that have just opened. It would be unlikely that so soon after them opening this is what’s caused the spike. Plus it would be a serious loss of face for the government.

The numbers sound a lot but it’s still only 0.1% of people with the virus. Obviously measures need to be taken to stop it getting a lot higher but the virus isn’t going anywhere and we need to work out a way of living with the risk, which sadly may involve having to reinvoke shielding for the most vulnerable. It’s shite for sure.

Saddleworth is classed as Oldham and is by no means a deprived area.....

@OyOySavaloy

Good for your uncle too. He's more likely to be hit by a bus than catch covid.

I hadn’t appreciated there were 1,000s of bus accidents daily. It’s perfectly possible to overplay Covid risks - and people do - but this and the notion that 99% are asymptomatic are ridiculous.

@Pelleas

The government won't do anything - their agenda all along has been to kill off people in poor and deprived areas.

God people don't half post some shit.

These places include some deprived areas. They also include some of the most affluent suburbs in the country.

Oops, that was to chance

@GabriellaMontez

These places include some deprived areas. They also include some of the most affluent suburbs in the country.

Id like to see the breakdown of who is getting it.

The Trafford public health lead was very clear it was not concentrated in one community.

Surely cases picked up on holidays are a different group to those in the overcrowded housing?

It's too late to try to enforce anything now.

Look at the countries where lockdowns have been effective. They all had clear messaging, people understood what they could and could not do, and they understood why the measures were needed. They have effective track and trace systems.

Now look at the UK. Vague rules, senior figures that failed to follow their own rules, zero enforcement (because no one could quite work out what was to be enforced). We still don't have an effective track and trace system.

Why would anyone take it seriously anymore?

@ChaChaCha2012

It's too late to try to enforce anything now.

Look at the countries where lockdowns have been effective. They all had clear messaging, people understood what they could and could not do, and they understood why the measures were needed. They have effective track and trace systems.

Now look at the UK. Vague rules, senior figures that failed to follow their own rules, zero enforcement (because no one could quite work out what was to be enforced). We still don't have an effective track and trace system.

Why would anyone take it seriously anymore?

I agree but this is a very worrying prospect

The British people will suffer both in terms of health and economics because of this.

What a depressing situation we are in.

Honestly... They need to close the pubs again. People are not following social distancing requirements and are still meeting up with friends.. Not just teenagers/those in early 20s but educated people in their 40s/50s who just seem to have had enough of it. Breaking the rules but theyd say... why not.. Government advisors do and no one deals with it.

Additionally the rules bring in extra exposure as you aren't allowed in other households... Grandparents (unless living together or there is just 1 and in support bubble ) aren't allowed to provide wrap around care .. People have to work so instead use after school clubs for children... Far more mixing than letting grandparents pick up.

On the positive side Bolton hospital hardly has any cases and is in a much better position than its been for months and months.

Me too. Since the initial reports of an outbreak in hale amongst young people, I've not seen anything more specific.

The absolute numbers are so low it must be very clear exactly where and who.

Some sort of perfect storm situation I guess ☹️

I live in a lovely leafy suburb of one of the areas of GM rising cases. It’s not all deprived areas affected. Lots of people still mixing in groups in houses or pubs/restaurants ( who Seemingly have turned a blind eye to non household groups inside) so it’s hardly surprising it’s rising. Schools are only just back here some aren’t back til next week so they aren’t the reason.

if you are right about the pubs @happytoday73 then that would explain why the local restrictions are totally ineffective. They're targeting the wrong people.

Much too soon to blame schools or afterschool care though.

Why would anyone take it seriously anymore?
I don't know, people still seem to take it pretty seriously where I live. Maybe because people accept responsibility for protecting thenselves, their families and communities instead of endlessly driveling on about what a shit show it all is, Domminic Cummings breaking the rules back in April and what a fat wanker Boris is.

You need tube asking the people who are getting infected, did they stick to SD, did their employers make them work in unsafe conditions, so theynot know how they should be behaving etc?

Really really target the problem areas, do some proper research and find out why

Honestly... They need to close the pubs again. People are not following social distancing requirements and are still meeting up with friends.. Not just teenagers/those in early 20s but educated people in their 40s/50s who just seem to have had enough of it. Breaking the rules but theyd say... why not.. Government advisors do and no one deals with it.

But there is no evidence that pubs are responsible for local spikes. In Oldham it has been household transmission and transmission between extended family ( 30 cases could be tracked back to one extended family)

I live in a hotspot area and in a ward with lots and lots of pubs and a real culture of socialising locally. The figures for our ward are so low that they aren't significant enough to be reported- a day the figures have stayed like that since the pubs opened.

Every pub represents someone's livelihood. We shouldn't be pushing for them to be closed without any evidence they're a problem.

I'm in GM and don't know a single person who is following the local lockdown rules, I don't actually know what the rules are at the minute.

They came out of lockdown too early, which led to more spread than desirable

When was the "right" time to come out of lockdown then? November 2046? As New Zealand have discovered, ultimate suppression is a very long way away from elimination. Barring the possibility of the virus burning out (from my lips to the ears of God), then coronavirus is here to stay, and not even a vaccine will change that. All a vaccine does is diminish the risk for most people who have it. And since we do not have a vaccine, lockdown until we do is unrealistic. Every single time we come out of lockdown, it will be waiting - along with a host of other viruses.

the people in deprived areas are certainly not picking it up on holiday.

Really? People in deprived areas don't go on holiday? You clearly haven't any experience of deprived areas then, have you?

I've name changed for this because it is extremely outing.

I'm working just outside Bolton and know many who live there. People are not following the guidelines. Parties, mixing households, the lot. I know one set of grandparents who visited all 5 son's families over the weekend and tested positive on Monday. Now all 5 households are isolating, 3 of them contain teachers, 2 have nurses and they were all happy to mix households. The aegument to get them to isolate, because the parents told Test and Trace they had been no where, was intense. I can't fucking get over it.