Greater Manchester cases rising even more. What can be done?

[SistemaAddict]

I've been watching these for a while and despite local lockdowns the rates are going up. Bolton is bloody scary. I am just within the GM boundary and our rate has gone up from 8 to 13 in the space of about 3 days. Schools only went back 3 days ago and I can't see the figures improving. How can things be controlled when local half-assed lockdowns are not working and everyone is back in school? Will us shielded ones end up shielded again? At what point will schools close?

Of course we'd have freight (and medical and emergency including asylum) entry. But it's a hell of a lot easier to keep under control when that's all that's coming in. NZ had a small outbreak, took fast action, and it's already back under control. Victoria is also taking effective action. That's because places like NZ and Aus have measures in place including proper quarantine where necessary. Melbourne's outbreak is tiny compared to our situation.

Melbourne's outbreak is tiny compared to our situation.

Yes it is and look at the drastic action.

It makes it less likely it’s possible here.

@SheepandCow

It only works with closed borders continuing after lockdown lifts. Spain, Italy, etc don't have the advantage of being an island. It makes border restrictions harder to enforce and police.

1-2 months strict lockdown to get cases down, then open up - but with borders remaining closed.

I very much doubt, even now, that there's enough public or government foresight (or hindsight) but it's not impossible, therefore it's an option (albeit an unlikely one).

That’s not what I mean. People kept going on about how much better Spain’s lockdown was than ours, when all we could really do differently was go out for exercise outdoors 2m apart. Why did allowing that make our lockdown less effective than theirs

The other difference is that NZ seems to have a grown up as a PM. Having faith (or at least, a modicum of respect) in your leadership means people will be more willing to comply.

But their population is tiny compared to ours. We are a small, densely populated country. We can't live like New Zealand.
I doubt they can keep it up indefinitely either.

NZ had time on their side. They were very early on the curve when they locked down. What date would have been comparable here?

It was easier to do with more evidence mounting.

We don't have to be a hub. New York is (usually) a hub. They've stopped that for now. Because it's within their (and our) control. And actually we're not exactly much of a hub whilst all this is going on. Not too many people want to come here right now. Not with all the infections, and consequent disruption, closures, etc.

Until about 50 years ago, no-one was frequently flying all around the world. Life went on. This time it's only temporary rather than the norm. We should see mass availability of a vaccine by next year.

I don’t think we are actually supposed to be pursing the same strategy as NZ though - elimination - the purpose of our lockdowns was (I thought) to avoid overwhelming the NHS which we are nowhere near doing at the moment. There are only 700 people in hospital across the whole UK - last time we had this number of cases in a day there were over 8000 people in hospital.

Sorry forgot to answer your question. First time round? We should have done it in February. March at the latest. By then the situation was more than apparent. But it's never too late. Anytime, as soon as possible. Get cases down with a strict short lockdown, then reopen but keep strict border restrictions for up to a year (with flexibility to open earlier if safe to do so).
Again, I doubt it will happen but that's what we could do.

A friend of mine lives in Trafford and in a text I asked something about the new restrictions for them (this was a few weeks back) and she said nobody is sticking to them as they are too complicated.....
There was an article I read about how London isn't seeing an increase in cases you would expect with the population density and that it was where the cases were more widespread earlier on. One thought was people are more likely to still be WFH. London has sone of the most deprived areas in the country (and some of the wealthiest yes).
I really don't see getting people back into offices is sensible. Perhaps a small number at a time of necessary and always those same people and no hotdesking.

I agree about the flying round the world. It's not necessary right now.

But 50 years ago illnesses were endemic in the population here, and it was a much smaller population. I remember measles, it was awful. Polio too. Tb was a real threat, especially in disadvantaged communities. Now we have Covid19. We have to learn to live with it, as people learned to live with things then. A vaccine will only be part of the answer, like flu vaccines now are only part of the answer.

The thing is people didn't live with those diseases. They died. A child at my mum's primary school died from measles.
They didn't just do nothing about it and shrug their shoulders and say oh well either. People quarantined. We had isolation hospitals. Kids were sometimes off school for months and months quarantining and/or convalescing. Even in my day there were kids off for months after catching glandular fever.

Many people didn't die but suffered lifelong disability. One of my teachers never properly recovered from the polio they'd had as a child. They were off for long periods and ended up retiring early. We now face similar with Long Covid. So far we don't know enough about it. It might not be that widespread but we don't yet know.
The Australian, NZ, and Isle of Man approach is the sensible one. They can live a much more normal life and their economies will recover quicker than ours.

What exactly are the government trying to achieve, the rates are higher as more testing and people back at school and work.

Do we want herd immunity? Anyone is at danger but how long can shielding people shield? This may never end? SARS is still around as is Ebola.

So many people refused to send their kids back until September as though a miracle was happening then yet it's more rife now offices also think a miracle has happened.

Why is anyone shocked by rising figures? It's a virus? How can a virus really be controlled especially when many have no symptoms?

I know. I am 60. I remember children in leg irons from polio.My mother worked with tb patients (we all turned out not to need the tb vaccination- she must have brought it home).

I wish this had not happened. I wish we were a self sufficient little island with no one travelling in or out. I agree we need to be much, much more careful. Isolation hospitals might have come back (they were awful for children- they were cut off from their families for weeks) .
I just think we have to face it. The reality, and deal with it. Not sweep it under the carpet and say let's all stay home until the vaccine fairy comes. Because i don't think it will happen like that.

Nothing can be done because these half-assed rules make no sense. So if I'm in Manchester I can hop on a plane and travel to another country and back but am not allowed to go to a pub with a friend from a different household?

The only thing that can technically be done is put the entire city into full lockdown, but that will destroy businesses and push people into poverty even more so that's unsustainable.

@SheepandCow

Sorry forgot to answer your question. First time round? We should have done it in February. March at the latest. By then the situation was more than apparent. But it's never too late. Anytime, as soon as possible. Get cases down with a strict short lockdown, then reopen but keep strict border restrictions for up to a year (with flexibility to open earlier if safe to do so). Again, I doubt it will happen but that's what we could do.

Yes

Yes fever hospitals were a thing and quite little children were sent off to them on their own.

@ceeveebee

I don’t think we are actually supposed to be pursing the same strategy as NZ though - elimination - the purpose of our lockdowns was (I thought) to avoid overwhelming the NHS which we are nowhere near doing at the moment. There are only 700 people in hospital across the whole UK - last time we had this number of cases in a day there were over 8000 people in hospital.

Yes that's what they said. Tbh they were so late they had already messed it up in terms of elimination. They could have done that - but would have had to be a) competent and b) caring. Sadly neither apply!

I take issue when people suggest they couldn't have locked down earlier.

The early decisions - such as no restrictions coming in from Italy - were discussed widely at the time amongst people I knew. It was clearly stupid ill advised.

Also lockdown was a week too late. We had that whole 'I'm not closing pubs but please avoid pubs' nonsense first? That last week cost thousands and thousands of lives.

It scares me how badly the UK handled it. We are no better prepared for the spike ahead, really, in terms of honesty and competency.

I agree we should have closed a week earlier but blaming the government for people going to the pub just because it was open I don’t think is fair.

I am presuming the people who went to the pub were adults and had made that decision based on their own risk assessment.

Ultimately the news was out there for people to decide to go out or stay in.

The government can’t be responsible for every action someone takes.

I notice the area where the lockdowns are happening are the areas that seemed to continue business as usual.

If people actually adhered to the original lockdown then after a few weeks we should have been clear of this disease.

Unfortunately you can’t get people to stay in when others are out and about going about their normal lives. So then the only way going forward is herd immunity but in a drip feed way so we don’t have thousands wanting ventilators at the same time.

I actually don’t see what the government has done wrong in this.
They knew people weren’t going to adhere strictly to any of this (you have only to look at the amount of nostrils on show when you look at mask wearers that shows that people don’t really care)

If anything those countries that had the severe lockdowns I would think are going to be much more affected when things open up.

I am waiting with interest how London will fare when everyone is back in schools and work

I actually don’t see what the government has done wrong in this.

pull the other one! They've left no mistake unmade!

I actually don’t see what the government has done wrong in this.

They have failed to follow an effective strategy despite being handed one on a plate by WHO:

'Find, test, isolate and care for every case, trace and quarantine every contact.'

Also do everything at the lowest administrative level possible.

Andy Burnham is talking sense:

www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/greater-manchester-leaders-calls-for-exit-strategy-to-lift-restrictions-as-soon-as-safely-possible/

And what's good for Greater Manchester is good for the UK as a whole.

Latest figures for GM

Three cheers for Trafford and Oldham! Whatever's being done in those boroughs should be replicated elsewhere.

I am waiting with interest how London will fare
My cynical mind inspired me to look up London's current cases. It is as I suspected. Higher than some (possibly all) the areas of local lockdown. I was suspicious of the reporting method that counts individual London boroughs rather than the whole city. London is very interconnected and, despite a dense population, not actually that large in geographical size. It's no surprise cases aren't really that low. The airports and the almost daily mass gatherings, together with areas of serious deprivation and overcrowded housing, made it inevitable.

I don’t think any London borough is over 25/100,000? They may have more cases but when you adjust for population size the rates are much lower than greater Manchester