Greater Manchester cases rising even more. What can be done?

[SistemaAddict]

I've been watching these for a while and despite local lockdowns the rates are going up. Bolton is bloody scary. I am just within the GM boundary and our rate has gone up from 8 to 13 in the space of about 3 days. Schools only went back 3 days ago and I can't see the figures improving. How can things be controlled when local half-assed lockdowns are not working and everyone is back in school? Will us shielded ones end up shielded again? At what point will schools close?

I really hate this, 'my life is worth more than someone else's' discussion.

It seems quite clear to me - meeting unprotected in groups increases your chance of catching the virus. Some of these meetings have to happen e.g. schools, people living in cramped conditions, some workplaces, etc. Other meetings are, quite frankly, optional. What the government has asked people to do is to follow some simple guidelines to keep the impact to a minimum. Expecting the extra vulnerable to lock themselves away, so others don't have to do this, is very selfish. Calling those groups 'expendable' is outrageously callous.

Polling shows that Cummings had a clear impact. People consistently cite it as the point they stopped adhering.

Yep. That doesn't mean it's the only explanation for non-adherence. There are lots of reasons, including ignorance. I am in GM and when the restrictions were initially announced, a great many people didn't actually know whether they lived in Greater Manchester or not, for example. The police in Wigan surprised a number of people with this information, when they were enforcing the regulations.

However, none of this means Cummings isn't a factor. Both because people are using him as an excuse, and because it led to some thinking the regulations couldn't be that important if the government were falling over themselves to pretend breaking them was fine.

My view is that they are letting it run as it’s mostly young people with it. Build up a bit of immunity in places. The death numbers are very low and capacity in hospitals is fine so I don’t think we will be going full on lockdown anytime soon.

@Skybyt

My view is that they are letting it run as it’s mostly young people with it. Build up a bit of immunity in places. The death numbers are very low and capacity in hospitals is fine so I don’t think we will be going full on lockdown anytime soon.

If they were doing that, it would be entirely unethical not to be honest about it.

Because they have no idea who will meet who.

They are saying cases are low, kids won't catch it in school etc.

People then base their behaviour on this messaging.

I don't think they have any plan really and I don't believe that the medical advisers would be on board as herd immunity without a vaccine is nigh on impossible so it's a lot of risk for low gain.

@Skybyt

My view is that they are letting it run as it’s mostly young people with it. Build up a bit of immunity in places. The death numbers are very low and capacity in hospitals is fine so I don’t think we will be going full on lockdown anytime soon.

My view is that the government are taking a cynical and calculated risk in order to shove through a no deal Brexit while the population is rightly or wrongly (depending on whether we are being deliberately manipulated or this is a second wave) distracted and looking in the opposite direction.

They should never have done back to school+everyone in the office at the same time.
Cummings should have been sacked in disgrace.

They care nothing for ordinary people.

@Pixel77

Could they not offer more support to the older and vulnerable, specific shopping time or help to set up online shopping, for example, and really help those people like they tried to during lockdown, given the rising cases.

then the rest can get herd immunity if they chose to ignore the rules.

Some of us - older (50s/60s) and vulnerable - are now required to go to work with no protections and have no choice but to mix with those who choose to ignore the rules.

Not all pubs are equal either. Some are running great well controlled restaurants and bars. Others are operating an old style free for all.

Indv pubs should be closed not well run places

Personally I think it's holiday return cases and family mixing.

I'm in a low case area but I've seen adults posting about teens sleep overs and adult parties with a many different families. This now seems to be acceptable????!

We live in a city in the North (not currently in lock down but where rates are rising) which is traditionally popular for stag and hen dos. We went down south for a few weeks to visit relatives, just us and within guidelines, and on our return flight was a group of at least 14 rowdy, drunk noisy stags. I have no idea what happened when they got to town as generally places are quite strict but judging by the slogans on their tt shirt and the fact they were all pissed on a plane by midday I can't imagine much social distancing was going on... I'm not a party pooper but was utterly shocked that they were still going ahead with it and thought that was ok!

Jesus fucking christ, this impression of people from greater manchester being more or less illiterate is astounding.
I am very familiar with wigan.
Most people have kept to the guidelines, wear masks in the main, and are very fucking well aware that they are a part of greater manchester.

There is a rather mixed amount of deprivation and wealth in these areas.
in the past week, the majority of cases in wigan have been entered on the wealthier parts.

Perhaps they didnt know they were in England ...

To be fair Sally some people in Bolton still argue it's Lancashire,I think here in Bolton it's just a lot of people just don't care,I took my Dog for a walk earlier and there were loads of people out on the park in big groups ,we have the highest rates of infection in the UK yet some people just don't care.

@Sallygoround631

Jesus fucking christ, this impression of people from greater manchester being more or less illiterate is astounding. I am very familiar with wigan. Most people have kept to the guidelines, wear masks in the main, and are very fucking well aware that they are a part of greater manchester.

There is a rather mixed amount of deprivation and wealth in these areas.
in the past week, the majority of cases in wigan have been entered on the wealthier parts.

Perhaps they didnt know they were in England ...

I've only been to Wigan twice, the last time in 2011, but the police patrolling the area evidently had.

If it would make the point more palatable, there were arguments on Facebook when the regs were first announced from people in some of the naicer parts of Trafford and Stockport that they were Cheshire. And those areas make much more sense as part of GM than Wigan does.

Personally I'm from Manc proper and too young to remember pre GM days, but it doesn't strike me as stupid or illiterate that people whose identity and postcode lie elsewhere might not consider themselves to be living in Greater Manchester, especially not when the 'Greater' is so often colloquially dropped. I'm surprised it does anyone else.

Even worse now. 5 boroughs over 50. We've jumped to over 18 from 8 only a few days ago and there's not been any time yet for any transmission in schools to have any effect on numbers.

They should do what Andy Burnham is suggesting:

• hand over funding and responsibility for test and trace to local authorities
• door-to-door testing, contact tracing, advice and messaging
• proper financial support for people who need to isolate or quarantine.

It's not rocket surgery.

Lockdown measures are like a tourniquet - they just buy you some time. You still have to actually fix the problem.

@Skybyt

My view is that they are letting it run as it’s mostly young people with it. Build up a bit of immunity in places. The death numbers are very low and capacity in hospitals is fine so I don’t think we will be going full on lockdown anytime soon.

Surely that strategy only works if young people live and work in isolation? Many still live with their 40/50/60 something parents who, in turn, still work and may also be seeing older parents/in-laws.

@Pixel77

*One-two months proper lockdown now with closed borders, then open up pretty normally by Novemberish. Depends on whether there's enough public will, and I suspect not. But it could be done.*

Given that it is endemic in these areas already and did not drop much during lockdown I'm not sure that would help...not now.

I said proper lockdown. Like they did in Spain, France, Italy, and many other countries around the world. That, together with closed borders (with proper quarantine for emergency travel) would allow us a return to relative normality before Christmas.

I don't think it will happen btw. Just pointing out it's an option if people wanted a less dragged out return to normal life.

Living in this area, the truth is the majority of people are not sticking to the rules. Because they don’t make sense! You can go the pub but not your family’s garden?

The majority of people I know don’t give a damn. They are just going about life as if Covid doesn’t exist. They are meeting family out for the day in Blackpool instead. Or going off to Ikea. They are still meeting up at each other’s houses. Having birthday parties at home, sleepovers for the kids. Lots of people not bothering to wear masks (not including the exempt here, just people I know who “don’t see the point”). A lot of people I know in my age group think “if they get it, they get it”.

Everyone has lockdown fatigue and local lockdowns can’t work if they aren’t enforced. And if they ARE enforced then there will be riots.

The whole country simply cannot stay in lockdown.No country can. Even with unlimited money it couldn't happen. Not and keep the services running, sewage and clean water in the taps, power and roads and hospitals. Shops stocked and clean, and food delivered. Police on the streets, the elderly cared for. Farms and all the transport that goes with them.
True, schools can close, office workers can wfh. But everyone who has managed to stay in has to realise the vast number of people that have been out there looking after them.
And lockdowns have to be released. Then what?
We have to learn to live with it. Change our way of living. Protect the most vulnerable. There might never be a vaccine, and if there is, it will, by the nature of immune systems, probably work best for the people who need it least.

I said proper lockdown. Like they did in Spain, France, Italy, and many other countries around the world. That, together with closed borders (with proper quarantine for emergency travel) would allow us a return to relative normality before Christmas.

Is there evidence that France/Italy/Spain’s lockdowns led to a significantly greater reduction in cases than ours did? Otherwise, I cannot see how that would be justified just for the sake of it.

I agree @outofthemoon.
This sort of semi lockdown, in and out local lockdowns, on off, on off, is awful
We should've used our island advantage, like NZ, Australia, and the Isle of Man did.
Short (1-2 months) proper lockdown, then - with closed borders for 6-12 months - resumed mostly normal lives. Shops, offices, schools, theatres, etc. All open.

We could do the same even now if we wanted a normalish life before Christmas. I doubt we will, but it remains an option.

I think we’ve spent too much for it to be an option now plus case numbers are high.

Proper lockdown works for so long but then you have Spain and France when released.

NZ did it with very low numbers. Aus too but even Victoria got caught out.

It only works with closed borders continuing after lockdown lifts. Spain, Italy, etc don't have the advantage of being an island. It makes border restrictions harder to enforce and police.

1-2 months strict lockdown to get cases down, then open up - but with borders remaining closed.

I very much doubt, even now, that there's enough public or government foresight (or hindsight) but it's not impossible, therefore it's an option (albeit an unlikely one).

Victoria is tackling it's cases. They're taking action. Most of Australia is living largely normal lives. I have family in South Australia, and extended family in NZ.

Victoria isn’t living normal lives, the discrepancy is big. And I have family there too in zero COVID state.

Shows how easy it is for it to get out of control.

The time to close borders is at the start. And re-doing furlough and grants now is vast.

Most of our food comes from road freight over the channel and we are not self sufficient. Even now lorry drivers are correctly exempt from quarantine. New Zealand has shown how easy it is for a case to be introduced and that is without land freight providing around 40 percent of our food!

There was no chance a full lockdown and boarder closure would have worked unless we significantly reduced our food supply and given the panic buying that happened despite that I am not sure you would get a great level of support for it!

We're nothing like NZ though. We're not remote (thankfully) nor a hub. It's just not comparable. And for how long can NZ cut themselves off?