Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Derbygerbil - plus Birmingham, increases there right now.

A discussion of the scotland vs England figures here. I thought it might be suspected vs positive test but apparently not. It is a little odd.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/18693197.coronavirus-top-academic-says-scotland-may-overcounting-number-covid-patients-hospital/

a corrected East Midlands table, the most recent 7 days was a bit under-cooked on the original posting

Oliver Johnsonn@BristOliver* has been looking at France

His graph - log scale is important here - looks like cases there are doubling every 15 days now

The % positivity in tests is increasing, which is also very concerning,
as it > the 3% limit the WHO suggests before sharp action is needed

UK not yet at that stage, with positivity < 1%,
but I'll be scrutinising these log scale plots for the UK if cases continue to rise next week

@Derbygerbil

Based on some of the comments on here, I can see things getting a lot worse in the U.K., with the North-West and Yorkshire being the epicentre. It’s going to get messy sadly, with people not changing behaviour until the wave hits, just like March.

Those charts by boys were illuminating (did you do them or are they from elsewhere? If you, wow hats off!)

I knew York would be a slice of green in the Yorks and Humber ones. I also know the north east is very mixed. There are pockets and areas of deprivation but not on the scale of manchester or other areas in the north.

@BigChocFrenzy thanks, this seems to be the key stat to follow nationally, as well as the local stats for individual areas. Let’s hope some of it has been driven by returning holidaymakers and the increase at least slows its pace, although I can’t see it going in any other direction .

If the UK reaches 13,400 cases over 7 days, that would be the 20 / 100,000 7-day incidence at which it quarantines visitors from other countries

Getting near that already

@boys3 So is the conclusion from your LSOA analysis that deprivation matters a bit, but region and proportion of young people matters more?

Today's spike is really concerning though. An r rate of 2 (ie doubling every week) would soon put us back in the same place we were in March, and if testing is already at its limit, we'll soon have to start rationing it again. DD's sixth form don't go back for face to face lessons for Y13 for another two weeks - I can see her then having returned to fully online by then if this continues.

@NeurotrashWarrior, I still think one of the most striking things is how few, out of c33,000, LSOAs actually had three of more cases in that specific week. Given the case numbers being reported over the past few days the number of LSOAs may increase of course, but even if they double from the 529 in the last PHE file that is still less than 5% of the total.

To be perfectly blunt though the PHE report referenced in the Graun should be openly published. I don't see how not being open about the problems will help resolve things.

If the UK reaches 13,400 cases over 7 days, that would be the 20 / 100,000 7-day incidence at which it quarantines visitors from other countries

If the U.K. exceeds 20, to say, 30, it makes little sense to keep the limit at 20.... as effectively any returnees from countries between 20 and 30 would, statistically at least, serve to dilute the infection levels!

This thread is about to run out of space btw

[quote Firefliess]@boys3 So is the conclusion from your LSOA analysis that deprivation matters a bit, but region and proportion of young people matters more?

Today's spike is really concerning though. An r rate of 2 (ie doubling every week) would soon put us back in the same place we were in March, and if testing is already at its limit, we'll soon have to start rationing it again. DD's sixth form don't go back for face to face lessons for Y13 for another two weeks - I can see her then having returned to fully online by then if this continues. [/quote]
@Firefliess I think deprivation is certainly one factor in some areas, and actually perhaps the income deprivation domain is more pertinent - if people are on low wages whilst they may want to do the right thing and self-isolate, putting food on the table will most likely trump that.

The LSOA report is only updated weekly, but when the next one comes out I'll look again to see if the same patterns start to repeat. Always lots of risks with a single week's data and it would be so much easier if numbers less than three were not suppressed

It also makes clear that whilst we are all in reality second guessing things if a bit more data were made public that would aid understanding hugely.

My youngest DS also just started Y13, how long his bubble of over 1000 will remain unpricked remains to be seen. We are in a very low case area, eg in the lowest 20 in the country, but have seen over the past few days numbers starting to tick up.

If the U.K. exceeds 20, to say, 30, it makes little sense to keep the limit at 20...

Unless the majority of positive cases reported in the UK are in fact from returnees from other countries.

I think countries where the holiday season ended earlier were "lucky" because their holiday makers did not get a chance to import the same level of infections as we might be seeing now. From my own experience, I keep hearing about new positive cases among the people I know. Absolutely everyone got COVID when they were abroad in supposedly low risk countries. These are largely families and not young people partying in Zante.

I guess we will have to wait and see whether our "world beating" test and trace is up to the task.

@Derbygerbil

If the UK reaches 13,400 cases over 7 days, that would be the 20 / 100,000 7-day incidence at which it quarantines visitors from other countries

If the U.K. exceeds 20, to say, 30, it makes little sense to keep the limit at 20.... as effectively any returnees from countries between 20 and 30 would, statistically at least, serve to dilute the infection levels!

... This was what I was wondering ! 😂

➡️ NEW thread: 📉 📊

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4016356-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-17?watched=1

Over 1000 in DD's year group too. Though the college are claiming they're in 3 separate "bubbles", one for each Alevel. I'm not sure about the concept of overlapping bubbles conceptually But think they mean they won't send the whole year group home if one student is positive, and will just send (at most) up to three classes home which seems realistic. They've been hesitant about opening at all (hence alternate weeks online) so I'd cases are rising fast again I can see it maybe not happening at all

Thanks for the new thread @Bigchoc :)

"if people are on low wages whilst they may want to do the right thing and self-isolate, putting food on the table will most likely trump that"

Yes, while I've no patience with mask-dodgers trying to act cool,
it's completely different when it comes to isolation vs paying essential bills and keeping a roof over your head

• it's perfectly reasonable to prioritise yourself / family over a society that abandons you in that desperate position

Whatever the situation in "normal times", isolation in a pandemic should have income made up to full wages by the state, i.e. the taxpayers who benefit from not being infected by the person staying home
and phone checks to see if help is needed, e.g. with delivery of groceries or meds

elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

Really interesting article here about how a super computer has analysed covid data and makes hypothesis about the disease and suggests treatments.

. .

...

Yes, very high death rates in April some of the occupations with no sick pay and also a quick return to work. Most of the construction industry pays no sick pay and look how quickly they got that industry back up and running. Also lots sub contracted so possibly couldn’t be furloughed.

It's quite hard to construct anything from home as well! Being outdoors with capability to distance from each other in many cases, there wasn't really a need to actually stop at all.

You've reminded me of some very silly comments about certain workers back in late March/ April. Construction sites had to be made safe, they couldn't just be left for months on end open to the weather in whatever state they happened to be in on the lockdown date. Water, electricity, gas, phone, rail and some road engineers all had to keep working throughout because those are essential services; that means their support teams had to work (e.g. dropping off stones, filling holes etc). Some of those poor people were abused for going out to work. I do think it's rather different from the zero hours contracts for care workers etc. That said, I believe minimum pay should be brought in, there needs to be some form of protection for these workers. Largely the service companies who have zero hours staff are actually outsourced from councils and central government, something like 80-90% of zero hours staff, the rest being hospitality. If central and local government don't like the impact then it's very easy for them to actually fix the problem.

It's quite hard to construct anything from home as well! Being outdoors with capability to distance from each other in many cases

Outside of large scale new builds - loads of construction happens indoors. Men were back travelling in cars together before that was officially sanctioned and then working indoors together. Saw loads in my area.