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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2020 18:44

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
MarshaBradyo · 28/08/2020 20:04

France shows you can lockdown hard but it’s a delay more than anything. It makes me think UK approach not so bad (ok we have schools opening, fingers crossed for next stage).

Timeforanotherusername · 28/08/2020 20:07

I'm not sure how much testing was being done when France started to open up?

We were maybe in a better position?

Also are we reacting to outbrraks better?

Are France doing extra restrictions in areas with high instances?

YoshimisMum · 28/08/2020 20:08

@EducatingArti
Salford number 29 on here

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
Thehogfatherstolemycurry · 28/08/2020 20:09

Thank you

Eyewhisker · 28/08/2020 20:17

Interesting that France now has a higher infection rate than Sweden.

MarshaBradyo · 28/08/2020 20:18

Keeping people apart in a low level seems better than hard lockdown then release.

Piggywaspushed · 28/08/2020 20:24

Vielen Dank BCF!

Qasd · 28/08/2020 20:24

I don’t know about “now” but France didn’t lift restrictions nationally but coded each area with restrictions lifted earlier in safer areas so generally they have taken a regional approach (not sure of now though) and I don’t know where they are re testing either now or at the height of the pandemic (is it like us that numbers now are just no comparable to April as no testing or did they test more from the start?).

They did get their numbers pretty low as actual number in May though often around 200/300 a day (but obviously it would depend on where they were in testing at the time I don’t know if they have an ons survey equivalent?...there is a lot about France I don’t know you may have guessed😂! Interesting to get the perspective of a french mumsnetter if there was one!)

meercat23 · 28/08/2020 20:32

Thank you for these threads, It is really good to have somewhere to come for clear and sensible explanations.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2020 20:40

@sirfredfredgeorge

*France opened up most things - iirc shops, restaurants, hotels, clubs, cinemas etc - in mid-June which may have been too early, although nothing like as early as the USA*

It may also have locked early enough to stop widespread community transmission before lockdown - so the actual number of people at risk of catching it is higher compared to more impacted countries, even low levels of herd immunity still dampen growth rates particularly where group size is also limited through continued measures.

.... It is unclear whether anywhere in Europe has sufficient herd immunity for this to play much of a role yet e.g. N Italy probably has the highest level in Europe, but Italy's figures are also rising rapidly, especially as holidaymakers return

The requirement for herd immunity may be quite high in densely populated areas
Recent serological surveys in high COVID epicentres have shown v high levels of antibodies, e.g.

  • 93% in Iquitos, Peru
  • 78% in some areas of New York City
  • 57 % in Mumbai slums

Germany locked down v early in the epidemic, probably the earliest when the number of deaths at lockdown is compared between countries
Hence - especially considering its v low deaths / million, about 1/6 of these countries - likely has lower immunity than e.g. Italy, France, Spain

However, the rise in Germany is much slower and the 7-day incidence is in fact not yet as high as in the UK

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2020 20:49

@Eyewhisker

Interesting that France now has a higher infection rate than Sweden.
.... Sweden still has much higher 7-day incidence than its Scandinavian neigbours, with whom it should really be compared, as well as 5-12 x the total deaths / million

Sweden also has much higher infection levels still than the UK, which has 12 x its population density

It is surprising that a country with such a low density population is still seeing this level,
as it presumably has higher levels of immunity than elsewhere, going by the deaths
Supporting the hypothesis that no European country is yet near effective herd immunity

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2020 20:59

Some other European countries which released restrictions several weeks earlier than the UK have seen a resurgence of cases.

The issue will be whether the UK sees a similar resurgence with a few weeks offset, or whether the long UK lockdown drove down cases to a sufficiently low level to hinder rapid infection growth later

OP posts:
MRex · 28/08/2020 21:08

France tried really bloody hard and it's a shame to see the infections rising. I do see some clear common factors with counties with rising cases in the EU though.

  1. Clubs and size of gatherings. Spain opened nightclubs in June. France allowed the boat clubs to operate as well as having an issue with lots and lots of illegal parties. Quite a lot of Europe enabled gatherings of 200/500/1000 people including Belgium. The result broadly has been increased infections among young people. The UK similarly has had illegal parties, but they've been smaller in general, maybe because the legal limit of 30 or so low. The legal limit for all these events that are effectively indoors + noisy has remained low. From the research, lots of people and noise inside are the biggest issues.

  2. Romania and other countries with lower testing and much higher positivity. Spain and France opened borders with some countries that the UK considered too risky and retained quarantine restrictions on.

  3. One thing I've no idea about but have a hunch on is air conditioning. UK guidelines have prompted checks on air conditioning systems, and the legionnaire's disease threat after lockdown made that particularly important. Did every country include that in their guidance per industry? Some of those wall-mounted air conditioners are more common in little hard and restaurants, but dreadful for viral spread.

EducatingArti · 28/08/2020 21:20

[quote YoshimisMum]@EducatingArti
Salford number 29 on here[/quote]
Thank you @YoshimisMum
So they are lifting extra measures in Trafford which has increased its rate but not in Salford which has decreased its rate and is now lower than Trafford.

Disclaimer. I live in Salford about 1/4 from the Trafford border. I think it is too early personally to be lifting things here but particularly confused about Trafford!

EducatingArti · 28/08/2020 21:20

That should say 1/4 mile

MRex · 28/08/2020 21:24

Has Trafford perhaps had a particular factory or care home outbreak, making the increased numbers a bit meaningless because it's known not to be community spread?

EducatingArti · 28/08/2020 21:28

Not according to the Manchester Evening News report I linked to up thread. Most of the council and 2 out of the 3 Trafford MPs as well as local public health think it is 2 early.

FingonTheValiant · 28/08/2020 21:31

@Qasd

I don’t know about “now” but France didn’t lift restrictions nationally but coded each area with restrictions lifted earlier in safer areas so generally they have taken a regional approach (not sure of now though) and I don’t know where they are re testing either now or at the height of the pandemic (is it like us that numbers now are just no comparable to April as no testing or did they test more from the start?).

They did get their numbers pretty low as actual number in May though often around 200/300 a day (but obviously it would depend on where they were in testing at the time I don’t know if they have an ons survey equivalent?...there is a lot about France I don’t know you may have guessed😂! Interesting to get the perspective of a french mumsnetter if there was one!)

France-based mumsnetter here. Honestly, I'm looking at the rocketing daily numbers trying to work out how it went so badly wrong. There are a couple of possible factors I can think of. Firstly, although school transmission is unlikely, we made the last two weeks of the academic year compulsory for all students. I'm not suggesting people were infected because of that (they clearly weren't, looking at the dates), but to persuade everyone it was a good idea there was a hard sell of "everything' s fine, it's under control, and the young are at basically no risk". Which meant lots of people really eased up outside of school, and lots of my colleagues started saying the restrictions were unnecessary, or ridiculous even, and everyone stopped SD and mask wearing in the staff room and started meeting up outside of work "as we all work together anyway".

Which brings me on to secondly, large gatherings of friends and family. On the 14th July we were invited to the 6th birthday party of the daughter of colleagues. DH, the two colleagues and I all work in the same school, we knew one other colleague was invited, and all our children go the the same school. So we figured that was fine. We got there and there were 24 adults and 14 children. The rest do not work with us and the other kids were from different schools. No one caught covid at that party, but I know from other friends and family that large numbers of French people really cut loose at the start of the holidays.

Thirdly, whilst cutting loose a lot of French people started doing the bise again (the cheek kissing), which we have been very clearly told to stop doing by every bloody doctor and scientist in the country. Even today I was asked by a neighbour if I was doing it or not when we said hello (she was going to do it, but happy to respect me not wanting to, and she has an illness that originally put her on the equivalent of the shielding list...).

And finally, they've buggered off all over the country on holiday. In general the French holiday more in-country than the brits do. Back in May/ early June colleagues and friends were all "ooh, I don't think we're going away this year, we don't want to risk it..." but by the end of June everyone had planned multiple weeks of holidays all over the place. Mixing with various other family groups in different places. I can't really throw stones for this one, we took the boys to futuroscope for 2 days.

I'm sure most people have been absolutely fine, but I do think some people have been careless. I also think that the huge compliance with mask wearing has lulled people into a false sense of security.

And that's before you factor in the young people a raves and secret parties etc.

DS3's godfather just tested positive. He lives in Paris, went to spend the summer with his partner's family in Marseille. All fine. Partner's brother went for dinner with his ex, spent the night with her, and she got symptoms and a positive test two days later. Two weeks later everyone in the house is positive. Brother and ex are mid 20s. Friend is 40, but his MIL is 62.

Anyway, it's all totally anecdotal, but I can't find any information here which actually identifies what's happened. The news are basically saying it's all irresponsible young people.

FingonTheValiant · 28/08/2020 21:32

Sorry, that was massive post 😶

InMySpareTime · 28/08/2020 21:44

Trafford is community spread, small numbers of cases across most areas over the last month, but no "dark blue" patches anywhere.
Seems to be largely driven by 15-25 year olds meeting up socially (with or without Lockdown rules). The lifting of restrictions is baffling but is probably down to Graham Brady's influence.

HoldingTight · 28/08/2020 21:51

Thank you Fingon, that's really interesting. We 💕 France and have an apartment in the Alps. Sad not to have visited this summer.

FiveFootTwoEyesOfBlue · 28/08/2020 21:52

Fingon Thanks, that's really interesting. I wonder if it's a similar story in Spain.

Etinox · 28/08/2020 21:56

@FingonTheValiant, it was a massive post Grin, but relevant and interesting

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/08/2020 21:58

The requirement for herd immunity may be quite high in densely populated areas

I didn't say anything about herd immunity to eliminate though, I said sufficient immunity in the herd to dampen the growth. It's nowhere enough to eliminate a virus, but it is enough to decrease the growth rate, that doesn't matter in the end of course, but it flattens the grown in the early days of the exponential growth.

OhTheRoses · 28/08/2020 22:03

Very interesting though @FingonTheValiant. We have a home in SW France and some Gites. Interestingly our UK bookings cancelled. Our French and Spanish bookings didn't. After much soul searching we went to Cornwall instead.

Let's hope in two month's or so we may have something to thank Boris for. Possibly more of we'd closed the chuffimg borders in late Feb taking cognizance of our privilege of being an Island.

My DC are back to uni in early October and I work for one. Compliance will be a challenge among the young. Both mine have been told no guests in hall. Ha bloody ha about that one! DS has been whingeing about having a single bed.