Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

DS's school has abandoned the one way system. The teachers didn't stick to it. DS had to reprimand them several times. But mask wearing is 100%. No problems at the moment - let's hope.

... Your DS sounds a strong character, from your other posts too ! I hope he feels reassured by the continued mask-wearing - and also Germany's cases have been declining slightly the last 7-10 days

One-way systems sadly require less time stress than in most schools
Masks are simpler - require less thought to comply - although not easy

The second hospital table with total admissions is updated to 4th Dec even though the other is not. Sorry, can't copy as DH is starting film.

Also that swabs could be picking up old virus that is no longer infectious.

@Piggywaspushed

I know there are jitters in Lincoln because it has a large student population compared to its size, and one testing centre which is drive through and miles out of town so not ideal for students! At the moment , Lincoln has very few cases.

Lincoln had very few cases - bit of a surge over recent days; up to almost 30 cases per 100,000 for the most recent 7 day period, second highest in East Midlands after Leicester

Nothing bad yet, total patients in hospital on 4th: England 454, Scotland 258, Wales 35, NI broken but 17 or 18 yesterday.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

BigChoc
Thank you! He is autistic and clever.

@MRex

The second hospital table with total admissions is updated to 4th Dec even though the other is not. Sorry, can't copy as DH is starting film.

That table is always a couple of days ahead of daily admissions for whatever reason. Both should be updated tomorrow if same as last week (they give figures for 3 individual days rather than catch up 3 days in 1 iyswim

Stansted is over an hour’s drive away - not great if you’re feeling unwell!

It's a 35 min journey actually

Lincoln had very few cases - bit of a surge over recent days; up to almost 30 cases per 100,000 for the most recent 7 day period, second highest in East Midlands after Leicester

Still only 14 cases when you look at the actual figures. But yes a jump from 4 the previous week.

Can anyone explain to me why England has over 10 times the number of Positive tests compared to Scotland but less than double the admissions to hospital

Perhaps there’s a difference in who goes for testing one Scotland - are people waiting til they’re more sick for example?

@JacobReesMogadishu

* Lincoln had very few cases - bit of a surge over recent days; up to almost 30 cases per 100,000 for the most recent 7 day period, second highest in East Midlands after Leicester

Still only 14 cases when you look at the actual figures. But yes a jump from 4 the previous week.

@JacobReesMogadishu

Problem is I actually do look at the actual figures, writing a simple excel formula has been more taxing though

31 confirmed cases in Lincoln for the 7 day period between 27th Aug and 2nd Sep

@Srictlybakeoff

Can anyone explain to me why England has over 10 times the number of Positive tests compared to Scotland but less than double the admissions to hospital

Could be a higher level they admit in England. Possibly would they be more inclined to admit if the hospital is further than a certain distance which would happen more in rural places? Another possibility is the suggested vitamin D link-it generally will be lower in Scotland for obvious reasons.

What I mean is that in Manchester now they’re are huge spikes but that’s cos they’re on alert and more people are being tested

The more you test, it’s obvious that you’ll find more. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s that much higher than a lot of cities if they’re mild cases

Whereas in Liverpool where I am, yes there are cases but people are hardly following rules on distancing and masks but equally are not jumping thru hoops to be tested either

I know loads who are unwell but are like ‘it’s just a cough’ ‘just a cold’ etc

The attitudes I hear on hear seem alien to me - locally no one arsed near me genuinely

So it could be to do with how worried people are?

Less worried = only being tested if ill -do more chance or being seriously ill as a % if that makes sense

Be interesting to see if the % of positive cases is increasing , as the delays and difficulties in getting tested surely means more tests happening and this could be interpreted either way .

@boys3. Fair enough, the bbc have the wrong figures then when I inputted a lincoln postcode. Is 31 high though for a city that size? Should people there be worried?

I am generally worried, especially with schools going back, university students moving about, etc.

This is a statistics and analysis thread, dealing with facts & numbers
not a la-la-la thread

You seem to know a lot of ignorant and foolish people

Deaths did not rise 60,000 over a period of 3 months just because of a "cough or cold"

Cases atm are only a tiny % of the daily cases we had in March-April and are mostly affecting just the young
Hence hardly any deaths

Let's try to keep it that way

• by following public health advice instead of trying to look "cool"

@Vinoonasunnyday

What I mean is that in Manchester now they’re are huge spikes but that’s cos they’re on alert and more people are being tested

The more you test, it’s obvious that you’ll find more. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s that much higher than a lot of cities if they’re mild cases

Whereas in Liverpool where I am, yes there are cases but people are hardly following rules on distancing and masks but equally are not jumping thru hoops to be tested either

I know loads who are unwell but are like ‘it’s just a cough’ ‘just a cold’ etc

The attitudes I hear on hear seem alien to me - locally no one arsed near me genuinely

So it could be to do with how worried people are?

Less worried = only being tested if ill -do more chance or being seriously ill as a % if that makes sense

We live in Manchester, I teach here and partner teaches in Bolton; people are not following the rules and aren't being more vigilant. Kids are turning up ill, parents are letting them have parties and sleep overs (these are secondary kids). Plenty of kids are visiting grandparents etc. Weve already had complaints from bus companies about them refusing to wear masks on the bus and we are burning through supplies as parents aren't providing masks.

The entire situation is driving me insane. If there is no improvement my own Y12 daughter has asked to homeschool herself for her a levels.

Oh I think bbc are lagging a week behind . I hadn’t realised more up to date figures were available.

Whyarewe

I’m technically west lands and it’s been like that since about June here

Big kids parties sleepovers etc but equally people are relaxed about testing so testing = cases so not necessarily meaning certain cities having outbreaks

Jacob - I work in Liverpool and Lincoln population is double and Liverpool has more cases

Most of my mates are doctors and nurses and work in hospitals across Liverpool Sefton and west Lancs- no one have had any new admissions for weeks so I would expect t most are asymptomatic

Big choc

You misunderstood my post

I meant that if there are areas where people are relaxed generally about virus, then chances are that a smaller number of cases = more hospitalisations because the mild or asymptomatic aren’t being tested. That is certainly the cases of most people I know and work with inc medical staff

That’s all I meant

I’m not saying it’s right - but obviously in an area that’s being targeted for testing/ or day an area with an aging population like the Lake District where they’ll worry more, then they’ll pick up way more cases
Not that people died of a cold

[quote JacobReesMogadishu]@boys3. Fair enough, the bbc have the wrong figures then when I inputted a lincoln postcode. Is 31 high though for a city that size? Should people there be worried?

I am generally worried, especially with schools going back, university students moving about, etc.[/quote]
@JacobReesMogadishu the Beeb may well take an earlier cut off, or quite possibly not yet have picked up the cases added today. Lincoln and Lincolnshire generally has been low, and much of Lincolnshire still appears to be that way today, although after today's UK case increase, how long that will remain is anyone's guess

Lincoln is only a city by dint of a, admittedly quite spectacular, cathedral plonked at the top of Steep Hill, population is just under 100,000; so 31 cases over a seven day period is a rate of just over 30 per 100,000.

Is there anything in the local press there about any specific outbreaks - which hopefully can be quickly contained?

Based on some of the comments on here, I can see things getting a lot worse in the U.K., with the North-West and Yorkshire being the epicentre. It’s going to get messy sadly, with people not changing behaviour until the wave hits, just like March.

That graph BCF posted above seems to suggest out numbers dropped significantly the day after lockdown? Surely that cannot be accurate?

@boys3. Nothing in local press about any outbreaks or even a rise in cases. I know 2 taxi drivers tested positive in the last week but different firms I think. Someone in the next village tested positive 8 days ago and had been in the pub and now the pub is closed as staff are isolating. Sounds like they hadn’t been taking customer names so can’t do track and trace.