Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Keepdistance

I feel quite sick too. I dont know if it is the schools. But it really isnt going to help. Numberous threads on here with people Refusing to tests for whstever reason thinking they can choose to SI Others determined it's not because (its a wet cough or they also have a runny nose) Other not isolating after holidays. But anyway it is clear schools are not purting enough in place /able to put enough in place to stop coughs/\temps going arounds. And that is putting pressure on testing. Handwashing is not enough! And is very misleading causing everyone to go indoors thinking they are ok if they do.

How high will it shoot when people actually get hold of the tests!

What is the current ons? 1/2000 or so?
As i worked out that is someone in 10% of schools (obviously most should be si).

yes 1/2000 but that was estimated on the week going up to 25th August, so refers to 2 weeks ago.

Schools figures from ONS:
There are 8.89 million pupils in England in 2020. This is an increase of 71,000 from 2019
These pupils attend 24,360 schools, an increase of 37 from 2019

Elsewhere the figures for fulltime and parttime pupils at schools is given as 10.3 million for 2019

So if 1/2000 are infected with covid that is 4445-5150 people If you distributed people one at a time through schools, that would be 20% schools approx .

However, it is far more likely that a) as you say lots will be off self isolating and b) they will be concentrated in a few schools. Mainly.

@Jrobhatch29

Hi all, do we have any information on hospitalisation rates? I think I read somewhere it's about 3% of cases in the UK atm but I can't find it anywhere online.

... The last data on hospitalisation was on 2.9 when 124 were hospitalised

However, as it takes about a week from confirmation to hospitalisation, we'd need to look back those days
Roughly then 1500 cases

So my ballpark calculation is about 8% hospitalisation

That 8% is pretty much the same as the hospitalisation rate in the RKI table for Germany

So I'd go with that figure

@BigChocFrenzy thank you for that info about Germany letting vulnerable people continue to wfh. Has that come from the German government or is it just what employers seem to be doing? My employer (a German co.) was fantastic while I was shielding & said there is need for me to rush back as I was doing well wfh along with everyone else. Now suddenly they want me back in 1-2 days a week. I think it’s since Boris said it’s ok to go back to work. I am a bit worried after seeing today’s rise in cases 🙁

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy! Is that 8% of confirmed cases or is that what the estimate when included estimated cases too? I wish we had better info like that for the UK.

[quote Littlemiss74]@BigChocFrenzy thank you for that info about Germany letting vulnerable people continue to wfh. Has that come from the German government or is it just what employers seem to be doing? My employer (a German co.) was fantastic while I was shielding & said there is need for me to rush back as I was doing well wfh along with everyone else. Now suddenly they want me back in 1-2 days a week. I think it’s since Boris said it’s ok to go back to work. I am a bit worried after seeing today’s rise in cases 🙁[/quote]
...
My post was wrt schools in Germany

Companies in Germany do have stringent rules normally about employee health and German unions in most sectors are very powerful too,
with work councils deciding many employee-related matters, probably this too.

In German companies, I'd expect the most vulnerable, equivalent to formerly shielded would be protected

• it is very difficult to sack anyone in Germany once past the 6 months probation period, especially when absence is health-related

However, if you are working for a German company in the UK, they would follow UK law and UK govt advice,
so your situation would depend on local management

@Jrobhatch29

Thank you *@BigChocFrenzy*! Is that 8% of confirmed cases or is that what the estimate when included estimated cases too? I wish we had better info like that for the UK.

... That is only for confirmed cases - as is the German table

LittleMIss The UK cases are still low, even after today
Your risk should be low of actually catching COVID

It may well be that if cases get to Spanish levels - where they are still low enough to produce low deaths - that your employer will change policy back to WFH for vulnerable employees

@Vinoonasunnyday Scientists have confirmed yeatersqy (bbc interview) that we are nowhere near a second wave and that it’d take 3 years to get anywhere near the level we had in March at current rate

Do you know which scientist said this on BBC? I am frankly astounded someone would claim this!

Good thread on today's rise in cases (not just for journalists).
mobile.twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1302635196458598401

Interesting short blog post about behind the scenes of the Covid19 dashboard:
publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/09/04/the-covid-19-dashboard-bringing-together-data-and-statistics-in-one-place/

Israel

With a very high incidence rate and still climbing, the government will vote on reimposing lockdown on the 30 worst-hit cities

This would mean those cities closing schools and non-essential businesses

France

Cases dropped to 7,071 after nearly 9,000 yesterday
However, I don't know if their case confirmations usually drop on Sundays

1,704 were hospitalised over the last 7 days, 288 in ICU
That totals about 4,700 hospitalised atm for COVID

@Bercows

Are the numbers on a Tuesday still usually the highest like they were at the start? Weekends and Mondays were lower and gave a false sense of hope. I've not followed the UK numbers for a couple of months now or whenever they stopped the daily briefing. I'm concerned testing on the local numbers mainly as in GM.

Tuesday still sees a larger number wrt deaths due to reporting delays over the weekend giving lower numbers on a Sunday/Monday although this is less marked recently. There isn't really the same effect wrt cases as far as I can tell, they are more up and down. At one point there was a pattern of lower cases being reported on a Tuesday (perhaps as people couldn't be arsed to get tested on a weekend) but not noticed this as much recently

My departement in France has just been put back into the red today. More than 50/100,000.

We found out on Thursday morning that the parents of two children in the primary school got positive results on Tuesday evening. Their kids were in school on Tuesday despite the parents waiting on results one in DS2's class and then the other in nursery with DS3. Those kids are now isolation pending test results. On Thursday afternoon a colleague announced her husband was getting tested due to a fever for a couple of days. Again, she's in teaching and her kids are in school knowing her husband has a fever. One of her DC is also in DS2's class. She took them out on Friday until her DH gets his results.

Yesterday morning DS2 was coughing non stop, had a sore throat and a fever. And by the evening DS1 had a fever, cough, sore throat and runny nose. I phoned the on call up number and they told me the boys needed testing asap, but there's no tests left in the departement. Fortunately they managed to get a delivery transferred from a neighbouring departement at midday so boys were both tested this pm. And the doctor in the clinic told DH that DS1 has to stay at home until his results, but all the rest of us can go in to school

no wonder it's bloody spreading! No one is being sensible about anything.

We saw my parents on Thursday evening, so I called them to warn them the boys are being tested and got a total mouthful from my mum about being paranoid, neurotic, no common sense etc. So I'm feeling really pleased about the whole thing.

Needless to say, I'm keeping all three of mine at home until the results come in.

As an avid lurker on mumsnet, what I find worrying is how many people do not realise that you should test even if you only have 1 of the 3 main symptoms. That lack of awareness plus the problems getting tested at the moment is a huge worry to me. People already seem to be forgetting about Covid and Everything is “just a cold” So I won’t bother getting tested.

Which is exactly what one of my relatives said to me earlier. After having spent the day at another elderly relatives house. Their 5yo had a cough. I queried whether they had got a negative test and was told well it’s “just a cold”

France often has a dip in numbers over the weekend.

At first sight today's numbers are horrible, not helped by not having published figures on hospital admissions. They were updated 2 or 3 days ago. I think they should have been updated yesterday.

I wouldnt believe anything Vinoonasunnyday says. I dont believe any ICU consultant in the country or anyone who had been near an ICU would say what was claimed, that undermines anything else they say.

This could be a success of track and trace - if many of the tests are young people returning from holiday they are more than usually easy to trace, the airlines will have data for them. More young people infected now means lower levels of transmission in winter when the NHS is also dealing with flu, it's not all bad.

The big unknown is whether this will spread to the vulnerable and as I've said before I think people have a better chance of avoiding infection now with more mask use and more online deliveries available. Also immune systems are stronger at the end of summer than they are in winter - so likely to be fewer deaths. Add in better treatments and once again fewer deaths.

So although the figures are bad it isnt time to panic. I'm still going away for a few days (not abroad).

Germany

Cases yesterday and today < 1,000
but confirmed cases usually much lower at the weekend, then add on the backlog to Monday and Tuesday

Deaths averaging about 3 per day

7-day incidence 8.8 / 100,000

Interesting fingon and not too different from how I think things will pan out here with the emphasis on being n school at all costs.

I hope you and your family will all be OK.

Fing How stressful for you - and your daft mum adding to it
Yes, of course your boys need to stay home and they should soon be fit again, being so young

• they are lucky you are sensible, as it seems common sense is leaving the building

It's not schools; many haven't been back more than 3 days and they aren't back till Tuesday here; still a big spike though.

I think it's people returning from holidays and spread amongst the young.

I am seeing huge groups of late teens /early twenties around. The LA has publicly linked many cases to restaurants and bars. Local HCPs have told me it's predominantly younger age groups which last week's PHE report confirmed.

Doesn't help schools though.

DS's school has abandoned the one way system. The teachers didn't stick to it. DS had to reprimand them several times. But mask wearing is 100%. No problems at the moment - let's hope.

Thanks Piggy and BigChoc

To be honest, I'm not convinced the boys have covid, but it seems irresponsible to do anything other than get tested and isolate until results. I will not be happy if when it turns out some of my students have been sent in with symptoms, so it's just basic courtesy to my primary colleagues and the boys' classmates not to potentially put them at risk. Especially with cases rising as they are here.

Ha prokup, I like the sound of your DS!