Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Vinoonasunnyday

How many tests have they done tho as it’s all about proportion positivity and symptoms

Nothing to suggest we didn’t have say 20000 a day asymptomatic in March as we never tested them!

.... The real number of cases in March was likely hundreds of thousands per day, hence the 1,000+ daily deaths in March-April compared to v low deaths atm

However, I expected we'd top 2,000 early this week, not almost 3,000 today

It’s important to note that these are not likely all symptomatic

At least 2/3 aren’t displaying any symptoms lately

Previously the exponential rise was seen in admissions and the unwell

This hasn’t happened

The sick numbers aren’t increasing like they did last time

We can’t compare like for like as we didn’t test asymptomatic or mild cases earlier

Scientists have confirmed yeatersqy (bbc interview) that we are nowhere near a second wave and that it’d take 3 years to get anywhere near the level we had in March at current rate

I wish they’d apply same criteria for comparison

Overall figure and those sick enough to test

By March standards I bet hardly any of these positives would have even got a test back then and we’d never have known bout them

@herecomesthsun

Like everyone else, I have been puzzling over the death rate. Of course, we had been shielding till August 1st like many others, emerging blinking into the sunlight and feeling it was rather weird to go into a shop.

Shielded people only started to go back into the office in August and children only started back, in different places around the UK, in the past few weeks. The case numbers have gone up first but the deaths are lagging. I think we haven't really seen much infection in the shielded this time round.

Yet.

... the death is quite consistent with now only having a few % of the cases that were at peak

We can't really compare the number of confirmed cases when we were testing so little and the % positive tests were skyhigh then

Look at the confirmed total (orange line) compared to estimated real number of cases

Like many others I was totally shocked to see the numbers today. I was aware that cases were rising - but that's a big jump. Anecdotally, talking to medics they are still not seeing a rise in people sick or needing admission like we saw in the spring. That's true of GPs and hospital docs even in Hotspots in Yorks / Brum - although I don't know many from the NW

There are far far fewer cases now;
it's just that we are testing and finding far more than in March-April

Also the age of infection now is much younger

As Spiegelhalter wrote in his recent article:
if 5,000 30-year-olds are infected, that would only lead to 2-3 deaths.
Whereas if large numbers of over-80s get infected, as at peak, the death rate for them can be 10%

I can't see the testing figures- has anyone seen anything? Is it possible that we've tested significantly more? Certainly there are reports of difficulty getting tests, which there haven't been before.

Oh god, we're doomed if someone's making a prediction like that!

Bad figures today, looks like most of the Greater Manchester region is up. Far more than 100 cases around Bolton and in fact all the way around the edge of Manchester.
Increases looping around Birmingham too.
Spotty bits of increases elsewhere don't look too significant to me, well... undesirable of course, but not worrying.

Agree my mates an icu consultant and said no increase at all in their hospital

He also said almost 80% of their covid deaths had covid but were in hospitals for other things and never died of covid but with it

They would have died anyway

For me even if we are seeing 50.000 does it really matter if admissions low

Prediction was about @Vinoonasunnyday's comment.

Need what prediction?

Admissions have only started to take off in France, but they have rocketed in Spain

• there is a tipping point of sufficient cases among the middle-aged especially

and also there is a week or so delay before infections work through to hospitalisations

However, the UK is still far below the level of Spain, so I wouldn't expect a big rise yet
Hospital numbers in England are rising, but from a v low level

Just adding to choux’s post

195 add Ed to Brum

74 Bradford

31 Bury

39 County Durham

27 Gateshead

37 Kirklees

92 Leeds

36 Leicester

51 Liverpool

34 Newcastle

36 Sheffield

51 Sunderland

23 Warrington

22 Wirral

By region

East 108

East Midlands 207

North east 232

North west 706

London 308

South east 126

South west 87

West Midlands 420

York’s and Humber 371

"it’d take 3 years to get anywhere near the level we had in March at current rate"

I don't know who that scientist was, but it took only weeks from a few cases to get to the March rate before

Exponential growth is very dangerous and very rapid once the slope starts moving to the vertical

• e.g. see in that infections graph I posted, the rate of estimated growth after week 9

@Vinoonasunnyday - "Scientists have confirmed yeatersqy (bbc interview) that we are nowhere near a second wave and that it’d take 3 years to get anywhere near the level we had in March at current rate"
Sorry, the thread is whizzing by, so your comment, my reply and my clarification all got split up.
I was saying we're all doomed if someone's making such a positive prediction...

3 years is very slow in exponential growth terms!

@Vinoonasunnyday

Agree my mates an icu consultant and said no increase at all in their hospital

He also said almost 80% of their covid deaths had covid but were in hospitals for other things and never died of covid but with it

They would have died anyway

For me even if we are seeing 50.000 does it really matter if admissions low

... oh fgs, then he's an fucking idiot 🤦🏻‍♀️

The UK had > 60,000 deaths more than usual for just the 11 weeks during which COVID was high
Most other countries experienced similar peaks

No English admission data since 2.9- they're usually better at updating than that.

For me even if we are seeing 50.000 does it really matter if admissions low

For me cases in march April mean the same as hospitalisations now so it is nowhere near as serious but that doesn't mean it doesn't matter.

As it it the testing system seems to be spluttering. Most schools were only this week many on a phased basis so the extra strain hasn't fed through yet and universities are back soon.

Cases are definetelu rising now so the testing system will be on its knees soon. Plus it is more likely more people kids etc will have to isolate for weeks at a time just from community Infections never mind any transmission in schools.

Up to now it seemedike test a d trace was limiting the rise in cases and local lockdowns squashed peaks in Leicester and Oldham etc. At one point greater Manchester was trending down as well but it' s been evident it hadn't been working well over the last week or so.

As long as people keep telling themselves deaths arent going up so it doesn't matter cases may keep increasing and eventually feed through to more vulnerable people.

Let's hope bcf's theory about holiday makers seeding cases is correct!

Is there a way to see the numbers for each area/region now?
Would be interested to see how many cases locally now

😱at today’s figures. Expected that sort of rise in a Week or so but not so quickly.

The ONS state there were > 57,000 deaths registered with COVID as the main or subsidiary cause of death

and the UK government stats people calculated how many would NOT have died otherwise
and the lost years of life up to 1 May

UK gov: Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity
(DHS , ONS, Govt actuary & HO)

Category A: Health impacts from contracting COVID-19

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf

We estimate that from the 32,000 COVID-19 deaths registered between 21st March and 1st May,
25,000 were “excess deaths” in that they would not have occurred otherwise within 1-year.

Under the COVID-19 Static Scenario (CSS),
it is estimated there would be an additional 53,000 COVID-19 deaths to March 2021,
42,000 of which would be “excess deaths”.

In total this equates to 530,000 lost Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and 700,000 Years of Life Lost (YLL) over the 12 month period (21st March 2020 to 19th March 2021).

For people who contract COVID-19 and survive,
there are likely to be morbidity impacts particularly amongst those hospitalised and needing critical care, including cognitive, physical and mental health impairments.

We estimate these equate to 40,000 lost QALYs within 1-year.
The long-term health impacts are unknown.

I’m still so shocked at how high the numbers were in Feb/March and despite knowing it was coming we really had no idea. It’s going to be very interesting when the govt response is analysed in years to come. The pandemic planning surely will be seen as lacking massively - despite populations responding better than was predicted?

I know the figures today are low compared to March - but at which point is it considered we are back in exponential growth? Eg is this where the northwest is now? Or are we in a high but still contained period?

@Vinoonasunnyday re the rate of increase, well we had an increase of over 1000 cases today. That is nearly 40% in one day, against a background of significant lesser increases in recent days. It wouldn't take 3 years to get up to the previous levels if the numbers are increasing like this.

We need to watch what happens over the next few days very carefully

And it would be great if the government get their act together, for example to allow homeschooling where possible and stop penalising people for keeping their kids safe.

We are very far below the cases we had at peak, but let's not minimise how very grave that peak was