Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

One things for sure , I am really not looking forward to teaching when the inevitable hokey cokey kicks off...

@cathyandclare

No English admission data since 2.9- they're usually better at updating than that.

I don't think they update on weekends now and are always a few day behind anyway. Should see catch up tomorrow

Well ,when bigchoc starts swearing, things have got serious..

Can't believe I have no choice but to send my DC's in with numbers like this (and if someone says "just deregister" I may scream).

"And it would be great if the government get their act together, for example to allow homeschooling where possible and stop penalising people for keeping their kids safe"

I've always thought this on principle, at least for formerly shielded households:

the risk of SAGE's "reasonable worst case" is small, but it is not near-zero, or it wouldn't be a "reasonable" worst case
Parents should be allowed to decide

Also, that the most vulnerable staff be allowed to WFH, as in Germany,
Even in the low population German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which has had a total of 20 deaths a current 7-day incidence of 1/100,000
3% of staff were allowed WFH

@Piggywaspushed

Well ,when bigchoc starts swearing, things have got serious..

... I have little patience with wilful stupidity which is the case if there genuinely is an ICU consultant promulgating it

@BigChocFrenzy "he death is quite consistent with now only having a few % of the cases that were at peak

We can't really compare the number of confirmed cases when we were testing so little and the % positive tests were skyhigh then

Look at the confirmed total (orange line) compared to estimated real number of cases"

Well, even so, we have a tiny tiny number of deaths currently. I agree that we had a lot more undetected cases then.

But, as elsewhere on the thread, people are saying that the low number of deaths means they don't want to take the rising number of cases seriously (especially if it suits folk to read things that way).

I think that this could lead to opening things up so far that the extremely clinically vulnerable get exposed. (lots of pressure with the return to schools for example).

Then we will suddenly see some deaths if we get exposed vulnerable people and exponential growth.

@Beebityboo

Can't believe I have no choice but to send my DC's in with numbers like this (and if someone says "just deregister" I may scream).

Serious suggestion although it may not be viable for you- ring up on Monday, and say they have been told to self-isolate due to test and trace. Keep them off for two weeks.

In two weeks time, we'll have a very early indication of how school reopening is affecting figures and you can perhaps make a more informed choice.

I had noticed the hospital admissions were only up to 28.8 for the last few days
so have only this wekend updated to 2.9

They seem to be at least a week behind
which is frustrating,
especially as it takes about a week for cases to work through to become hospitalisations

I still hope this peak will stabilise once the holidaymaker cases have petered out
BUT that depends on whether track & trace and voluntary isolation have managed to stop those cases spreading too far

.

tbh, I would have thought that anyone, staff or student, can claim they have a cough or temperature and stay home for a while
In particular, students cannot be forced to take a test, so those "unwilling" students would have to isolate

I feel quite sick too.
I dont know if it is the schools. But it really isnt going to help.
Numberous threads on here with people
Refusing to tests for whstever reason thinking they can choose to SI
Others determined it's not because (its a wet cough or they also have a runny nose)
Other not isolating after holidays.
But anyway it is clear schools are not purting enough in place /able to put enough in place to stop coughs/\temps going arounds. And that is putting pressure on testing.
Handwashing is not enough! And is very misleading causing everyone to go indoors thinking they are ok if they do.

How high will it shoot when people actually get hold of the tests!

What is the current ons? 1/2000 or so?
As i worked out that is someone in 10% of schools (obviously most should be si).

Are the numbers on a Tuesday still usually the highest like they were at the start? Weekends and Mondays were lower and gave a false sense of hope. I've not followed the UK numbers for a couple of months now or whenever they stopped the daily briefing. I'm concerned testing on the local numbers mainly as in GM.

@sansasnark they have only been back three days and will be gutted to have to be at home again, completely gutted. I have no idea what to do.

2 deaths is so incredibly low.

It’s hard to know what is coming next. Obviously there’s a lag.

We are very far below the cases we had at peak, but let's not minimise how very grave that peak was

In numbers we may be far behind the peak, but not in days.
I've been keeping record of weekly numbers, week starting on Mondays:
Approximately:
Week beginning 23/3: 13500
Week beginning 30/3: 28000
Week beginning 6/4: 36500
Week beginning 13/4: 36700
Then started to go down.

This week is approximately 12 500, so comparable to 23/3, so could be around peak week numbers in 2 weeks if we go the same way as last time.

It looks like France's second peak will be worse than the first.

@Beebityboo I'm having the same worries. I've had to fight with school this week to make it safe for me to take ds and collect him. I'm due to go back to college on Friday but think I'll see if I can postpone.

I'm just so angry and upset. I agonised for weeks about it and I really got strong armed in to sending them back even though I knew in my gut it wasn't the right thing to do but thought it would be weeks until the wheels fell off like this. I'm now trying to think of options to keep us home and buy some more time that don't involve outright dishonesty.
Sorry, just having a rant. Cannot believe these numbers.

Big choc

You are right that ons shows the year on number of deaths from covid to be huge

But it also showed the year on avaerage of all other deaths were lower compared to last year

So unless covid suddenly cured cancer and dementia etc then it’s not that clear cut surely

@Witchend

We are very far below the cases we had at peak, but let's not minimise how very grave that peak was

In numbers we may be far behind the peak, but not in days.
I've been keeping record of weekly numbers, week starting on Mondays:
Approximately:
Week beginning 23/3: 13500
Week beginning 30/3: 28000
Week beginning 6/4: 36500
Week beginning 13/4: 36700
Then started to go down.

This week is approximately 12 500, so comparable to 23/3, so could be around peak week numbers in 2 weeks if we go the same way as last time.

It looks like France's second peak will be worse than the first.

We do not however have nearly such a huge number of untested people as last time, The real daily increases at the end of March may have been in the 100, 000s and the total numbers at peak may have been around 2 million (but no one really knows).

The current figure is surely higher that 12.500 for that period tested, but the unknown excess is likely to be far less.

@Beebityboo

I'm just so angry and upset. I agonised for weeks about it and I really got strong armed in to sending them back even though I knew in my gut it wasn't the right thing to do but thought it would be weeks until the wheels fell off like this. I'm now trying to think of options to keep us home and buy some more time that don't involve outright dishonesty. Sorry, just having a rant. Cannot believe these numbers.

If you have a reason to be concerned (e.g. clinically vulnerable people in the family) then I wouldn't worry about the dishonesty.

If you are just worried about the general risk of them/you getting ill, I would give it a week and see how they get on in school.

But if you/they are vulnerable, I wouldn't risk it in school at the moment. Two more weeks will also mean that anyone who caught it on holiday will have shown symptoms and hopefully got tested.

@Beebityboo

I'm just so angry and upset. I agonised for weeks about it and I really got strong armed in to sending them back even though I knew in my gut it wasn't the right thing to do but thought it would be weeks until the wheels fell off like this. I'm now trying to think of options to keep us home and buy some more time that don't involve outright dishonesty. Sorry, just having a rant. Cannot believe these numbers.

[hug]

You are clearly trying to do the right thing.

I honestly don't think in the circumstances it would be unreasonable to keep your child at home, I did look at your thread and apologise for not having posted to support you.

We will prob send one but still not completely sure about the other. Our school would like to see DC1 but were planning to be tolerant for at least a week (and this was before the rises over the weekend).

I imagine lots of parents will be a bit put off, to be honest.

@Vinoonasunnyday

Big choc

You are right that ons shows the year on number of deaths from covid to be huge

But it also showed the year on avaerage of all other deaths were lower compared to last year

So unless covid suddenly cured cancer and dementia etc then it’s not that clear cut surely

.... The drop in deaths from other causes was very small, much smaller than the peak from COVID deaths So overall, the UK is still running at about 60,000 deaths more than usual

It is only the last 3 months that total deaths have been around normal, or slightly below
It doesn't go anywhere near compensating for the COVID deaths

Look at the curves upthread for total deaths

Look at the link I posted of goivernment estimates of those who would have died anyway and those who wouldn't, up to 1 May, plus the total estimated years of lost life

Hi all, do we have any information on hospitalisation rates? I think I read somewhere it's about 3% of cases in the UK atm but I can't find it anywhere online.

France

Their dashboard is only up to yesterday, when cases increased by almost 9,000

Their R-number was recently about 1.5, but seems to have dropped the last few days to about 1.3, see chart

7-day incidence of just under 57 / 100,00 which is consistent with ECDC 14-day rate

Hospitalisations yesterday totalled 4,667 but only 14 new admissions - maybe weekend delay