Some reassuring news about schools being really safe

[TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]

I know there's a huge amount of (justifiable) worry about schools going back soon and I saw a piece of news today which deserved it's own thread in case people wanted some nice news.

Public Health England has looked at the evidence from June when 1,646,000 pupils went back to 23,400 schools in total. They found just 67 cases of the virus as a result of that. Only 0.01% of schools actually experienced an outbreak. That means that not only are children exceptionally unlikely to suffer any serious effects from catching the virus if they do get it but they are also really, really likely to catch it or spread it around in school. I know that won't reassure absolutely everyone, particularly if you have a child with additional health needs, but it is so lovely to be able to look at the evidence and say that, in terms of this virus, schools are actually really low risk.

Story from here www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools?utm_source=01ce0967-35e6-401b-92c7-8d5c486b1fe3&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

I don't find this reassuring at all. Classes were not full in June. Most were operating at half capacity or lower. I had only 8 children in my bubble in a normal sized classroom. Add in 22 others and this virus will spread.

But all years groups weren’t back!

I'm sorry but nearly 2 million children is not an insignificant number and 0.01% is also such a low number for a contagious respiratory virus. If you aren't reassured in the slightest by such a low percentage then your worry is out of proportion with what the facts are actually saying.

The June return at my kids’ school involved splitting year groups and kids only going in for short sessions, after ~12 weeks’ lockdown when the infection rate was very low locally. Effectively 1/10 of the school population were in at any one time. It was a great dry run for the school to finesse its circulation routes, mustering points and distancing measures, but not remotely like the school at full capacity for 5 full days a week.

There were hardly any children in, could go outdoors and most schools had minimal staff in so nothing at all like September will be.

Schools have been closed 🤷‍♀️

6 children, easily distanced vs 32 crammed together (for example)

It is good and better than not.

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe. If you still want to worry about this, that's your prerogative but I think it's nonsensical not to be reassured by these findings on some level. They are such good numbers given all the fear about the virus.

My child went back to school in June. Two year groups were back in total and my child was in a group of 7 children. They sat at desks 2m apart and spent most of their day outside!

In September he's going to be in a class of 30, the school will be full and they will spend most of the day in a packed classroom in close contact with each other. Hardly comparable.

As another PP says, the bubbles were small too. In my son’s class only 7/15 eligible children attended.

The issue is that what was happening in schools in June (my local infant sch for example had only reception and nursery, 2/3 of those opted to be in, in groups of up to 15, mostly learning outside) is not going to be what’s happening in sept (everyone in so closer contact, weather not so good so less learning outside , older children in year group bubbles of hundreds and using public transport). I have read plenty of articles citing studies to suggest children spread at least as much as adults. I can’t think it’ll be smooth sailing, but maybe I’m just a pessimist.

My son went "back" in June. He had six sessions of 1.5 hours, sat socially distanced in a small group in a large room. His was the only year group in school and only 1/4 of the year was in at a time.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

There were hardly any children in, could go outdoors and most schools had minimal staff in so nothing at all like September will be.

Yes - and outdoor learning in summer. Outside as much as possible.

As a teacher I'm familiar with how quickly norovirus and chicken pox spread in overcrowded classrooms. Covid will also spread. If children touch surfaces with covid on them and then touch other surfaces they will spread the virus around. In my school 150 children use the same block of 3 toilet cubicles.

It's evidence schools are really safe

That’s some extrapolation!

What it actually suggests is that having tiny numbers of children back, means social distancing is possible which helps reduce the likelihood of transmission.

Vulnerable children were not in

This is nonsense. We had bubbles of 12 maximum. Not even HALF of a class. Plus the weather was great and we were mostly outside. There was space for every bubble to have their own toilets.

Come September we will have 30 children in a classroom and 120 children sharing 3 boys and 3 girls toilets. There is not room for everyone to be outside. There is not room for everyone to eat lunch in separate bubbles. There are not enough staff for them to have an adult per bubble with no mixing. There is not space for adults dropping off and picking up children to be socially distanced. It is so completely incomparable it’s a joke that they are even suggesting it is.

Well I'm sorry OP, but working in this environment means I know exactly how difficult it is to control infection. Data from a different scenario is not reassuring to me. The end.

It’s not all that useful given how schools operated in June is very different to how they operate in September.

Oh yes. And in June the bubbles did 2 days on 5 days off, morning or afternoon, except key worker children who were in smaller bubbles.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe. If you still want to worry about this, that's your prerogative but I think it's nonsensical not to be reassured by these findings on some level. They are such good numbers given all the fear about the virus.

It's evidence that it's really safe to have children back in school in small groups, part time, outside a lot with social distancing measures.

Doesn't tell us anything about what will happen in September with a completely different set up though.

What it actually suggests is that having tiny numbers of children back, means social distancing is possible which helps reduce the likelihood of transmission.

Correct. We are not going to have those measures in place.

[quote TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]I know there's a huge amount of (justifiable) worry about schools going back soon and I saw a piece of news today which deserved it's own thread in case people wanted some nice news.

Public Health England has looked at the evidence from June when 1,646,000 pupils went back to 23,400 schools in total. They found just 67 cases of the virus as a result of that. Only 0.01% of schools actually experienced an outbreak. That means that not only are children exceptionally unlikely to suffer any serious effects from catching the virus if they do get it but they are also really, really likely to catch it or spread it around in school. I know that won't reassure absolutely everyone, particularly if you have a child with additional health needs, but it is so lovely to be able to look at the evidence and say that, in terms of this virus, schools are actually really low risk.

Story from here www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools?utm_source=01ce0967-35e6-401b-92c7-8d5c486b1fe3&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate[/quote]
Erm lovely. Bit irrelevant to what will happen when they all go back though, innit?

OP you really need to use some critical thinking skills here, not just put your fingers in your eyes and say la la la.

All that data says is that small socially distanced controlled groups in school are safe.

Great, so now let's do the opposite and cram everyone in just as per normal.