Some reassuring news about schools being really safe

[TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]

I know there's a huge amount of (justifiable) worry about schools going back soon and I saw a piece of news today which deserved it's own thread in case people wanted some nice news.

Public Health England has looked at the evidence from June when 1,646,000 pupils went back to 23,400 schools in total. They found just 67 cases of the virus as a result of that. Only 0.01% of schools actually experienced an outbreak. That means that not only are children exceptionally unlikely to suffer any serious effects from catching the virus if they do get it but they are also really, really likely to catch it or spread it around in school. I know that won't reassure absolutely everyone, particularly if you have a child with additional health needs, but it is so lovely to be able to look at the evidence and say that, in terms of this virus, schools are actually really low risk.

Story from here www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools?utm_source=01ce0967-35e6-401b-92c7-8d5c486b1fe3&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

Just to clarify, this study looked at primary schools only. None of these figures apply to secondary school. Primary schools arent the only ones returning in a week's time, and considering secondary students move around more, share teachers, share lunchtimes and bathrooms, and are (obviously) older, this study is basically just PR for the government.

It is really useful data to show that classes of a max of 15 with lots of other measures in place work. (Eg focusing on younger children) Now we need to see how classes of 30-35 older teens work.

ears not eyes!

I'm sorry OP but the conditions back in June and July were nothing like the conditions schools will face in September. If you want to extrapolate those findings to state that all schools will now be safe when the variables are changed then feel free but those of us educated to know better will disagree.

Schools didn't "go back" in June.
YR and Y1 went back in bubbles of 8 plus a class of key workers pupils.

My two are back in 12 days time to secondary year groups of 200+. I feel sick as the day gets closer tbh.

Are you one of the influencers who have been asked by the government to convince parents that schools are safe, OP?

Op do you just believe what you read without questioning it? Maybe you don’t have school aged children. In June pupils were socially distanced, children at DS school were in groups of 10 with 2 adults so really groups of 5. Majority of lessons were outdoors. No wonder infection rate was “62 outbreaks”. Maybe if we looked at it a different way the data is DEFINITELY NOT reassuring...with all those measures still 62 outbreaks! In September it’s back to classes of 30 or year groups of 300. That data is as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

Coming out of lockdown
X8 more children going in sept
What wasnt open?
Soft play
Shops just opened
No before or after school
No clubs/gymnastics etc swimming
Pubs
Zoos
Gyms
And very limited travel.
People werent supposed to be meeting in houses

The numbers of outbreaks grew every week

Vs positives since then -masks

We are still getting outbreaks in education setting with them shut. So presumably that is nurseries.

Look at Germany.
Seemed very few outbreaks last term but lots in i think the first weeks. Due to travel etc

Op i feel you just cant see the maths of the interconnections. 1 extra person even with everything open is minimum of 3 others at home and parents work/the pub/gym/clubs etc /parties

The only other advantage is slightly higher immunity

Wow.

My classroom will be stuffed full with 32-33 11-16 year olds; we won’t have bubbles except for lunches because apparently the curriculum won’t be as interesting and broad; and year groups will mix in the corridors without masks or sd. That’s the reality. In June and July, we had students in a maximum class of 8; they didn’t move around; the teachers moved to teach them and they were secluded from other groups. It is not the same.

This is ridiculous. I had 8 pupils in my classes in June/ july and about 100 pupils in total in the whole school - of course there were no / very few cases. This is not comparable to what will happen in two weeks time when the whole year group of 150 kids will be "bubble" and 1200 pupils will all be back in school. So no, this does not reassure me at all.

I seriously think a Tory bot has written this.

Well whatever happens I hope they don’t go back to the shite show of offering children an education based on either their date of birth or their parents job.

Or maybe we should randomly pick some year groups to go back so the safe distancing can continue - hey lets have years 3 and 5 this time just to mix it up baby.

Oh wait...

[quote TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]I know there's a huge amount of (justifiable) worry about schools going back soon and I saw a piece of news today which deserved it's own thread in case people wanted some nice news.

Public Health England has looked at the evidence from June when 1,646,000 pupils went back to 23,400 schools in total. They found just 67 cases of the virus as a result of that. Only 0.01% of schools actually experienced an outbreak. That means that not only are children exceptionally unlikely to suffer any serious effects from catching the virus if they do get it but they are also really, really likely to catch it or spread it around in school. I know that won't reassure absolutely everyone, particularly if you have a child with additional health needs, but it is so lovely to be able to look at the evidence and say that, in terms of this virus, schools are actually really low risk.

Story from here www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools?utm_source=01ce0967-35e6-401b-92c7-8d5c486b1fe3&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate[/quote]
You do know that in the UK there are 11.7 million kids in schools usually? The reason it was fine in June was because so few actually went back and therefore those that did could be fairly robustly socially distanced – and not many secondaries returned. It's going to be a totally different scenario next week.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe. If you still want to worry about this, that's your prerogative but I think it's nonsensical not to be reassured by these findings on some level. They are such good numbers given all the fear about the virus.

Gosh, there's really no getting through to some people! That data is flawed. You simply cannot compare what schools were like in June to what they will be like next week, with 30 kids packed into each class again and all those pupils moving between classrooms, dining halls, etc. Oh, and with no PPE for school staff.

Oh OP no one wants to hear it? Have you not learned that from the previous thousand school threads. On mumsnet you only have anything worthy to say if you are assuming the absolute certain death of every teacher and pupil in the country by Christmas!

And the no vulnerable children were in school comment, do vulnerable children transmit a virus more than an otherwise healthy child or are they just more likely to suffer for more serious effects of it?

I disagree with this. I don't think you understand the differences between how things were in June in schools and how they will be in September. Massive differences. Lots of other things were not open in June also so transmission rates were low generally and students were able to spend a lot of time outside.
There were 6 cases where they think students gave Covid19 to teachers, even with the social distancing and small groups, none of which will be possible in September.

OP you are comparing apples with pears.

To be fair though, everyone was hysterical that schools going back on June 1 was going to end in disaster and that it was too soon and that the R number wasn't low enough etc and that only parents who didn't care if their kids DIED would dare to send their kids back then because it was just too big a risk....

Should change the forums name from Mumsnet to catastrophizers anonymous

I think it is somewhat reassuring. Over a million children back in some form or another, and social distancing working. That's all good as it shows it can be done.

On the other hand, it doesn't predict what's going to happen in two weeks time in England. Secondary school is so different, and we don't know the profile of risk/transmission is more similar to small children or to adults. If there's a big spike in cases then we will know that earlier data is not that helpful. I still think going back is the way forward, but on other threads people have detailed a lot of ways this could be safer- I'd be in favour of half the week, more space, more social distancing, and see how it goes for a month for starters.

I am watching to see what happens as I work at a university and if it all goes wrong then we are unlikely to go back face to face, whatever is being said right now.

A school local to me opened 8 days ago and has closed because 22 staff members and 3 kids have it, plus 3 members of the wider community. Every family with kids at that school is now isolating until early September. It's not that safe really.

@Therarestone

Should change the forums name from Mumsnet to catastrophizers anonymous

Since when does people pointing out the data is flawed make them catastrophisers? And it's an s, not z. We're not American.

Include I must live near you!

Schools aren't that safe but we just have to get on with it 🤷🏼‍♀️

Every September I brace myself for 6 weeks of constant illness due to all the bugs the DC bring back from school and pass round the family. I find it hard to believe that covid is some kind of exception that is magically repelled by children?