Some reassuring news about schools being really safe

[TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]

I know there's a huge amount of (justifiable) worry about schools going back soon and I saw a piece of news today which deserved it's own thread in case people wanted some nice news.

Public Health England has looked at the evidence from June when 1,646,000 pupils went back to 23,400 schools in total. They found just 67 cases of the virus as a result of that. Only 0.01% of schools actually experienced an outbreak. That means that not only are children exceptionally unlikely to suffer any serious effects from catching the virus if they do get it but they are also really, really likely to catch it or spread it around in school. I know that won't reassure absolutely everyone, particularly if you have a child with additional health needs, but it is so lovely to be able to look at the evidence and say that, in terms of this virus, schools are actually really low risk.

Story from here www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools?utm_source=01ce0967-35e6-401b-92c7-8d5c486b1fe3&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

All that evidence proves is that social distancing is relatively successful in schools when small class sizes are maintained - so why on earth aren’t we ‘following the science’, instead our plan is quadruple those bubble sizes - I’m sure it will be fine!

Just googled to find classroom images. These are the reality of what it will be like in September.

It is a pity we can't replicate what was happening in schools in June, so small classes with plenty of social distancing but across all years.

Yeah Elaismore, the second picture is exactly what my class in Scotland has looked like last week.
With fewer hands up though, sadly.

@Therarestone

Should change the forums name from Mumsnet to catastrophizers anonymous

Yes, that's what people were saying in early March when we were advising people to be prepared for a lockdown 🙄

Elliasnore, apologies

Hahahahahahaaaaa... OP, bless.

If we were going back in September in the same way we went back in June, there is a chance school would be safe. But we're not.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe. If you still want to worry about this, that's your prerogative but I think it's nonsensical not to be reassured by these findings on some level. They are such good numbers given all the fear about the virus.

Can you really not see the difference between having 50 kids in a school, spread over 10 classrooms & spending 80% of the day outside and 1500 kids in school, 30+ to a classroom inside 80% of the time???

Really?!?!

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

I agree, there is reasonable evidence that schools aren’t major areas of transmission. Sweden’s schools (for those below 14 at least) have been open throughout, and whereas Sweden’s numbers haven’t been good, if Covid had spread widely in schools out to parents and beyond, it would likely have been catastrophic.

The figures are a bit higher but still not as scary as expected.
An outbreak is 2 or more persons.

"In England, the reopening of mainly preschools and primary schools in June 2020 following the easing of national lockdown was associated with a total of 198 confirmed COVID-19 cases (70 in children, 128 in staff members), of which 67 were single confirmed cases (30 in children, 37 in staff) and 121 were linked to outbreaks (30 in children and 91 in staff). There were 30 outbreaks nationally, with an estimated 0.5, 4.8 and 1.6 outbreaks per 1,000 settings per month in early years, primary schools and secondary schools. The number of outbreaks in educational settings correlated strongly with regional COVID-19 incidence (0.51 outbreaks for each new SARS-CoV-2 infection per 100,000 in the community; p=0.001). Staff members were more likely to be affected than students."

@Derbygerbil they used social distancing in schools in Sweden

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe. If you still want to worry about this, that's your prerogative but I think it's nonsensical not to be reassured by these findings on some level. They are such good numbers given all the fear about the virus.

Can you not see how flawed the data is o.p? Imagine a busy town centre pedestrianises a busy road for a few months, then a week before it reopens to traffic it releases a study saying how safe the town centre is for pedestrians as there have been no traffic accidents at all for several months! It is the most ridiculous thing I have heard. The government need to be honest there is a risk and this needs to be balanced with the fact that children need an education. We need a better plan and a plan B ready to go if it all goes wrong.

[quote Derbygerbil]@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

I agree, there is reasonable evidence that schools aren’t major areas of transmission. Sweden’s schools (for those below 14 at least) have been open throughout, and whereas Sweden’s numbers haven’t been good, if Covid had spread widely in schools out to parents and beyond, it would likely have been catastrophic.[/quote]
You might want to read this before praising Sweden. The reason there haven't been reports of it spreading in schools is because the authorities decided not to inform parents when there was an infection breakout and teachers and staff have died and but it's not being reported on.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/how-sweden-wasted-rare-opportunity-study-coronavirus-schools

I felt safe with only 15 children in my class and weather nice enough to spend a lot of time outside and only half the usual numbers sharing toilets and sinks. June and September are not comparable.

DDs school had 70 people in at most throughout the lockdown, and the 1 week they were open to YR and Y1 before being locked down again.

On Wednesday they reopen to 700 children, each class having 30 children with no social distancing at all, no staggered starts or ends....

I don't think those 2 scenarios can be directly compared.

My kids secondary school had 120/1680 pupils attending (25% of y10 and y12) which is less than 10% of the school.

Your data proves that bubbles of 15 and 3/7 of the school years is safe in primary schools. That's less than half of the school attending.

Try 30 plus in a class, no social distancing from one another and no mask wearing!
I am from Scotland and a cases have been bubbling up. I cant imagine what it would be like if the virus was prevalent like it was in April!
My first week back and I have managed to catch a cold. I have been sanitising my hand and trying to keep my distance. So much for that then! . Just shows how quickly a virus can be caught.

Swedish class sizes are typically a lot smaller than UK ones and they did do significant social distancing in schools so again not comparable to September here.

Agree with Foobydoo.
Suddenly have flashbacks of Priti Patel saying shoplifting had gone down in April when most shops were closed.

imo instead of just resuming classes like there is no thing called covid, they should have looked at a long term sustainable way of keeping children at school. Small groups, more teachers.Instead its a bit like being a guinea pig with everyone back and lets see how it goes!

@SqidgeBum

Just to clarify, this study looked at primary schools only. None of these figures apply to secondary school. Primary schools arent the only ones returning in a week's time, and considering secondary students move around more, share teachers, share lunchtimes and bathrooms, and are (obviously) older, this study is basically just PR for the government.

Yeah, this.

I want and need my DC to go back to school in September, and I feel fairly relaxed about the primary-age DC and less relaxed about the secondary-age DC. Different environments completely.

How primary schools operated in June/July with 50% of pupils is not good indicative data for how all schools will operate in September/October/November.

External clubs are beginning to operate too - by September the ways in which children will be mingling with others bears absolutely no relation to how things were in June & July.

I feel sorry for teachers. I need and want my DC in school but I have every sympathy with teachers feeling concerned by the proposals of their working conditions.

Hi Op
I'm with you all the way on this.

People seem to make their minds up and then choose the data that fits it and there is data aplenty for both sides BUT day by day more and more reports are concluding that the evidence you showed is more likely to be correct.

Even Witty agrees there is more danger to kids being off school than in school.

@IncludeWomenInTheSequel Sun 23-Aug-20 22:08:41
A school local to me opened 8 days ago and has closed because 22 staff members and 3 kids have it, plus 3 members of the wider community. Every family with kids at that school is now isolating until early September. It's not that safe really.

What this says is that it is teachers that are bringing it in - and then a few kids are testing positive.

Testing is finding positive cases with no or minimal symptoms. This is a good thing - it shows that in most people it is a fairly minor disease. 30% of 'common colds' are caused by Coronaviruses. Most of which were probably fatal to large numbers of people when they first infected humans - now they cause minor illnesses and manflu.

I think it's evidence that schools did a bloody good job enforcing social distancing.

I really don't understand how people can get so muddled.
Data showing low levels of transmission .when lots of mitigations were in place does not prove that there will be low levels when there are practically no mitigations in place,. Maybe handgel if we dont run out in the first week

There is no knowing who brought the virus first into the school in Dundee is there? It would only need one adult or one child.
But they were in a school without social distancing and without mandatory mask wearing, and that is down entirely to the government.