Some reassuring news about schools being really safe

[TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]

I know there's a huge amount of (justifiable) worry about schools going back soon and I saw a piece of news today which deserved it's own thread in case people wanted some nice news.

Public Health England has looked at the evidence from June when 1,646,000 pupils went back to 23,400 schools in total. They found just 67 cases of the virus as a result of that. Only 0.01% of schools actually experienced an outbreak. That means that not only are children exceptionally unlikely to suffer any serious effects from catching the virus if they do get it but they are also really, really likely to catch it or spread it around in school. I know that won't reassure absolutely everyone, particularly if you have a child with additional health needs, but it is so lovely to be able to look at the evidence and say that, in terms of this virus, schools are actually really low risk.

Story from here www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools?utm_source=01ce0967-35e6-401b-92c7-8d5c486b1fe3&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

@RealityExistsInTheHumanMind

Hi Op I'm with you all the way on this.

People seem to make their minds up and then choose the data that fits it and there is data aplenty for both sides BUT day by day more and more reports are concluding that the evidence you showed is more likely to be correct.

Even Witty agrees there is more danger to kids being off school than in school.

@IncludeWomenInTheSequel Sun 23-Aug-20 22:08:41
A school local to me opened 8 days ago and has closed because 22 staff members and 3 kids have it, plus 3 members of the wider community. Every family with kids at that school is now isolating until early September. It's not that safe really.

What this says is that it is teachers that are bringing it in - and then a few kids are testing positive.

Testing is finding positive cases with no or minimal symptoms. This is a good thing - it shows that in most people it is a fairly minor disease. 30% of 'common colds' are caused by Coronaviruses. Most of which were probably fatal to large numbers of people when they first infected humans - now they cause minor illnesses and manflu.

Without knowing how many teachers and pupils have been tested you could also conclude from @IncludeWomenInTheSequel post that children don't actually transmit this virus they way we thought. Given that there's a higher number of children to teachers in schools and children are less likely to social distance youd expect there would be more positive cases in children than teachers. So statements like that without the full facts of whose been tested and who hasn't are absolutely pointless as they are open to interpretation either way.

my DS was one of those pupils. he was in a bubble of 10, being taught by a teaching assistant. The school was able to open to 2 year groups, spreading the kids out among multiple classrooms and multiple staff members in a way that was only possible because it was only 2 yeargroups out of seven.

if they could keep the same ratios of pupils to space and pupils to staff while opening up to all yeargroups, but also ensure each bubble has a qualified teacher, I would be 100% confident. They aren't proposing this though. bringing all pupils back with no distancing and no additional safety measures is not something that the results from June have any bearing on.

Perhaps it has shown that small class sizes are effective at vastly reducing cases verses full attendance. Let’s hope the trend continues when classrooms are packed full and distancing becomes impossible.

It’s lovely you are seeking to reassure but the classes were all socially distanced. Most people’s concerns are centred around the lack of social distancing in schools in September.
The data your referring to is no more relevant than the photos of the large, airy classrooms that the bbc sticks alongside its return to school articles.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe. If you still want to worry about this, that's your prerogative but I think it's nonsensical not to be reassured by these findings on some level. They are such good numbers given all the fear about the virus.

Well, bully for you!

People are allowed to hold different opinions.

Some people might have done plenty of reading.

If you can explain why the virus won't spread with no social distancing, I'm happy to listen???

OP. I agree that it is very positive news. All years went back to my DC’s school in June (nursery to year 6). There was over a 90 per cent return rate and not one case of Covid-19. Yes, it’s a private school so the classes are smaller, but so are the classrooms so the kids are just as squashed in as they are in a state school. In fact, there was more space in my old 1970s state primary school!

Hello, Us4Them robot!

from the horse's (or rather report authors') mouth

There are, however, important limitations when considering the generalisability of our findings. Educational settings opened after national lockdown when SARS-CoV-2 incidence was low and only in regions with low community transmission. Settings that opened had stringent social distancing and infection control measures in please and, in addition to school attendance not being mandatory, there were strict protocols for class and bubble sizes, which may not be achievable when schools opening fully in the next academic year (and indeed, updated schools guidance now recognises that bubble size may need to be increased from September to ensure that a full range of activities is feasible). Only 1.6 million of the 8.9 million students nationally attended any educational setting during the summer mini-term. Additionally, very few secondary schools opened (and those that did, did so with small class sizes) during the summer mini-term and our results, therefore, are not likely to be generalisable to secondary schools, especially since the risk of infection, disease and transmission is likely to be higher in older than younger children. Moreover, each situation was risk-assessed on a case-by-case basis and only a few settings were selected for wider testing

And to be clear the 1.64m is for all educational settings and relates to the final day of the analysis period. On June 30th according to the data table that accompanies the report the number of DCs attending primary or secondary was 1.03m, and the average day over the analysis period for primary and secondary schools was 0.67m.

I write all the above with a DC due to start Y13 in Sep. I absolutely want schools back full time, but there are risks and to pretend this is not the case is symptomatic of the failing of the education system in this country for at least the last five decades, if not longer denying reality. I'd agree with Chris Whitty that the risks associated with not going back are though far higher.

I’m another who isn’t massively reassured. The community transmission was low, class numbers low, lots more lockdown surrounding. It is a bit of a misleading experiment.

However there are worldwide reports that schools are not the massive incubators that people fear. They are not meat factories. I find that reassuring.

What I’d find really, really reassuring is Public Health, School Guidance, the Media and Politicians to stop ‘reassuring me’ about how safe schools are! And bloody well get on with making schools much safer in the absence of definitive evidence that they are so low risk that we can just put everyone back without:

• good ventilation
• mask wearing as far as possible
• immediate isolation of anyone with symptoms
• smaller class sizes
• hybrid of online and actual schooling
• different levels of measures depending on community rates locally
• a really good test and trace system locally

OP's logic: sterilising baby bottles in Milton is safe, and data from numerous studies shows that babies can swallow a small amount and be just fine. Therefore it would be perfectly OK to fill the whole bottle with undiluted bleach...

I guess someone somehow missed all these neat infographics explaining how social distancing (and small contact bubbles) prevent a combinatorial explosion of cases.

Just like the dose makes the poison, the sheer concentration of people simultaneously sharing the same enclosed space makes the R number.

The June return was completely unrepresentative of what September is supposed to be like, and it's completely disingenious (or ignorant) to present it as such.

Some people won’t be happy until the infection rate is zero

Which means they are never going to be happy

My 9 year old or any of her friends would be able to spot the flaw in extrapolating from this information to the full opening of schools.

I'm curious @TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair, had this not occurred to you too? Were you paid to post this?

Bubbles in June/July were 8 at my daughter’s school, 10 including staff staff staff.
In September they will be 96 (entire year group) 106 including staff

Plus, numbers of children attending were low. Compared to mandatory attendance from September.
Big difference. Plus daily infection numbers are rising again.

So no, that report does nothing to reassure me, quite the opposite, in fact.

Oh, and also.....in June and July social distancing was possible because of the small numbers. If the whole school returns there will be no social distancing at my daughters school - the classrooms simply aren’t big enough to accommodate more than ten children per class and maintain a 1 metre distance.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Some people won’t be happy until the infection rate is zero

Which means they are never going to be happy

How do you extrapolate that from the answers here? I am reading a lot of people saying they would be happy if the return was with the same conditions that this study reported?

Personally I want them back but think Government has set this up to fail and lack of clear plan B utterly negligent.

This article concerns me more than relieves me - when my kids went back in June, even playgrounds weren't open.
We had double the normal classroom space (adjoining room was used) with only a third of the class in! I'd love that again! lockdown measures have eased dramatically since then, people seem to be socialising with whoever they like and classrooms will be crowded etc. The two scenarios are just not comparable - it's concerning that the government have issued that as a press release. If anything it highlights that schools should not go back with current measures and should go back with similar measures to june!

Can you imagine if they did a study on offices and said e.g. in Canary Wharf there has been little transmission of Covid between office workers in June - let's send everyone back to their normal distanced work environments - it must be safe?!! There are hardly any workers there at the moment! It would be like comparing rush hour on the tube in June with rush hour how it used to be! It is nuts!! It is so nuts that it is scary. It is clutching at straws nuts! It is like comparing the rate of Covid transmission in pubs doing takeaway food in May to conditions of pubs pre-Covid!

Other than staggered drop offs, encouraging more handwashing and one way systems wtf is really changing in schools in practice?!!

I'd love all to be well, want kids to go back, but ffs can't it be done in a safer way, with real risks acknowledged and a plan b in place?!

Propaganda

I’m very sceptical about it. I’m a teacher and we were tested AFTER it had been through our school. Most of the staff affected weren’t tested in June because they were very picky about who could and couldn’t have the antibody tests. In June we were all lovely and healthy. In March significant numbers of staff and children were off sick with a persistent cough and a temperature, to the point where we really struggled with staffing. I live in an area that spiked in March, so I’m sure that other areas will have a spike in the autumn. I’m happy to go back and teach but it’s just silly to say schools are somehow not affected by it.

September will mean full classes, bubbles of 250 plus, poor ventilation as it gets colder, zero social distancing and no masks.

It's a recipe for wild fire spread as has been found in other countries. We are not any different in the UK.

It's been proven that children shed more virus than adults and are often asymptomatic, a double whammy.

The recommendations are what had been happening before the summer holidays, better social distancing, reduced numbers to allow this and outdoors when possible. I'd add masks to this.

OP, The good news you speak of confirms that the June/July method of teaching, in small groups with good social distancing works. How can this carry on working if the same method isn't used?

I’m an assistant headteacher. This ‘data’ isn’t reassuring at all. Before the summer, on any given day we had less than half of our staff in the building, and only 25% roughly of our students. Classrooms were spread around the building, students were distanced within the classrooms and corridors were quiet. That simply cannot happen when we return to full capacity next week.

I’m not someone who thinks schools should remain closed but there needs to be acknowledgement that there is a risk. Even if students get the virus mildly, they could take it home to more vulnerable people. Staff are likely to get ill and I think many school staff feel a bit forgotten as the news only focus on the children. I don’t know any teachers who feel they’re more at risk than any other working group - but there seem to be more safety measures in other workplaces.

My DP works in industry and is concerned about my return to work next week where there is likely to be no wearing of masks and no social distancing. His work has strict guidelines in place.

@KittCat

Propaganda

Yup.

Doea it matter who initially brings the infection into a school, staff or student? If it spreads then, as seen in Dundee it will pass through and out of the school. The school in question is a special school, therefore staff work closer with pupils and each other, but, staff have access to and use ppe more often. Schools has larger numbers of staff than a mainstream school so more adults to catch it. Children are highly vulnerable due to health needs so in this case it is very serious.
We can look at Scotland, we have now been back between 1.5 and 2 weeks, some secondary school 1 week at capacity, so over the next 2 qeeks we should get some idea of the spread within school and the data will be useful because it will reflect the conditions in schools now and with the current stage of things being open. Hopefully numbers will stay low, if for no other reason that seeing the kids back in and happy is an amazing feeling.

The next issue will be people unhappy at kids being cold in classrooms where windows will be open fully in all weathers, but again if it keeps things safe and open it's worth being cold, unless you have underlying health needs ☹️

Gosh there's really no getting through to some people! This is really useful data. It's evidence schools are really safe.

We went back in June.
Half of the Year 10 year group (only half of parents allowed theirDCs to return).
Those that returned were split into two groups. X and Y
X attended day one, Y attended day two (and so on).
Max 70-80 children in a day including vulnerable children from other years.

Your ‘evidence’ is based on a similar scenario across schools.
You data is worthless.

It would be like comparing rush hour on the tube in June with rush hour how it used to be

This.

Suddenly have flashbacks of Priti Patel saying shoplifting had gone down in April when most shops were closed.

Haha!! OMG! This too!!!