Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

It does include all cases from the beginning of the year too including March when infection rates were high and no one shielding.

I think it is useful to look at exact trajectories of cases in this age group to give info not just on death but icu and symptoms. Obviously how the press use it is a different matter but as part of the “we know more about the virus now” than we did in March I think it is a very useful study that will help understanding covid And children. It does for example give information on the impacts in babies too - it’s not all about schools!

Oh , no, I agree!

It's the timing and the reporting that is politicised, not the report itself.

That Guardian letter says that the nearest test centre for the daughter who lived in Brixton was 65 miles away - that isn't strictly true as there are test centres in Greenwich, Twickenham, Heathrow, Chessington, Newham to name just the ones I know. Maybe none of them had any appointments that day but the letter is a bit misleading. I know several people who have been able to book drive through tests in the London area the same day or the next day. You can also order a home test kit. I don't think any of it is being managed well but think that letter may paint a slightly inaccurate picture of testing possibilities.

Cross posted with MarcelineMissouri!

Not typical, but quite likely at least some people will experience difficulties, so the letter was about these

Some centres might not be open, or be fully booked up.
They may have wanted appointments the same day,
and / or within particular hours, to work around school and work

If they genuinely looked at the NHS site, they would see that they ought to isolate if they have symptoms. People are told not to get tests without symptoms because of the risk of false negatives when it's too soon, it makes sense to isolate and wait. Why were that family roaming around so much anyway if they genuinely thought they were infected instead of getting a home test if they couldn't get a convenient appointment?

There are multiple walk-in test sites around Birmingham, while London has supplementary mobile testing units that travel about, plus she had a car and there are multiple drive-through sites. It certainly wouldn't be 65 miles away, I can see now it's been in Olympia again just last week, which is easily walkable from Kensington, never mind driving.

People can't get testing to "work around school and work", if they don't have symptoms it's largely pointless unless it's spot-checks for high risk care workers etc. If someone had symptoms they are supposed to isolate and then are free to make any test time.

A small note in fairness though if she was looking in Brixton - my borough, and I can see the same for at least 10 other boroughs before I got bored checking, has a dedicated page that gives lots of support info and also says when and where the mobile testing unit is when it's coming. Lambeth does not, it only has old content on support that looks to be from the start of the pandemic. They are fairly useless at any time as a council, but it does show there are risks if councils are expected to support some of the information sharing.

"People can't get testing to "work around school and work"

In practice, many people will want this, will want to avoid having to isolate for days, regardless of whether they "should"
especially because they can expect many bugs over Autumn & winter

Many can't afford to take time off work and / or are desperate for their kids not to miss even more school

Reality of many ordinary people clashes with "should" so services need to move towards what more people will actually do

Yes I agree @BigChocFrenzy the health services and government in general need to make it as easy as possible to do the safe thing.

I can't see that the "nudge" experts have had any large say in the current arrangements, even though they sit on SAGE.

They may have all gone into work after they couldn't get a test, which is probably what most people will do in practice,
if they don't have full pay, an understanding boss and no problem isolating for days

Many would just shrug and give up after this set of responses:

"She phoned her GP, they said they have run out of tests."
"We are not a test centre, go home."
"We only do antibody tests I’m afraid."

It can also be much more difficult for those who don't have a car, like the daughter, since they won't want to take a taxi

Merkel has just warned the pandemic is likely to get worse over the next months:

"It is serious. As serious as it ever was. And keep taking it seriously,"

Schools will be prioritised.
The government would do "everything so that our children are not the losers of the pandemic. School and daycare need to be the most important things,"

I agree the process needs to be simple. We're being asked to sympathise with these particular people though, and it's very hard to do so when there are blatant lies such as "no test centre for 65 miles". Why are these people calling a GP, or turning up at either of the other places without an appointment, when nobody has ever asked anybody to do either of those things and the online advice says to book the test online?

A small note in fairness though if she was looking in Brixton - my borough, and I can see the same for at least 10 other boroughs before I got bored checking, has a dedicated page that gives lots of support info and also says when and where the mobile testing unit is when it's coming. Lambeth does not, it only has old content on support that looks to be from the start of the pandemic. They are fairly useless at any time as a council, but it does show there are risks if councils are expected to support some of the information sharing.

I was looking for a test (based in Brixton) yesterday coincidentally. It was sending me to a walk through in North London (no car) while telling me not to take any public transport.

could you send the link above about support info MRex?

decided to try and see where my nearest testing centre might be - but I'd have to put in a mobile number or phone, according to the government website. I'd like to know where my nearest testing centre is before I might need to use it, so I know if I'd need to order a home test.

Seems that if you dont drive you need either to plan well in advance to get your home test or risk infecting other people by using public transport. If you have left it a few days you may then find that you need to go to a testing centre rather than waiting for a home test to be delivered. Then you turn up at a testing centre and it isnt a testing centre any more.

The scheme has been a shambles.

I wish we had Merkel. Johnson might play lipservice to education being important but would throw it under a bus if it suited him to do so

I tried to book a test on Wednesday, I live in SW London, there are lots of test centres near here. I was offered Birmingham Airport. Tried again a few times during the day and that was all I got. Rang the booking number 119 and was told it’s a known problem with the service, people are being directed to sites miles away, they have the same problem so couldn’t book anything nearer over the phone. Whether it’s a glitch and/or increase in demand as people return from holiday they clearly need to get it sorted out ASAP.

It’s not that there are no sites, there are plenty in my area, it’s that the online booking system offers you one choice and for some reason (availability or glitch) people are being directed hundreds of miles away.

metro.co.uk/2020/08/26/people-sent-hundreds-miles-coronavirus-tests-online-booking-system-13179891/

Thank you to the people who have confirmed that this is actually another computer failure - so the Guardian letter is to be believed. Maybe they tried the government website first and looked for alternatives when they couldnt believe where it wanted to send them.

Oh that's interesting. Thanks for explaining about the computer failure - that clarifies the letter. To be clear, I have no confidence in anything that has been implemented, I just knew there was plenty of capacity in London.

Mrex Many people are not as clear as you about what they are supposed to do - which is in itself a serious issue - so they will go out and try to get tested in the time they have available.

Some are, to be blunt, not very competent at anything outside their usual comfort zone and give up easily,
whether that is learned helplessness, or just already too near their stress limit

There obviously are test centres within 65 miles, but as professorPootle posted, she could have been directed to that one via the online booking system

@1990s - this one? www.lambeth.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid-19/get-support-for-yourself-or-a-vulnerable-person.
Searching on your postcode here may get you help too: covidmutualaid.org/.

I hope you're ok now, or get better soon!

Am just geeking a bit over all this info. It's really interesting:

www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/08/27/most-approve-of-national-response-to-covid-19-in-14-advanced-economies/

Yes, I noticed that Pew poll earlier

People in the Uk and USA are the most dissatisfied, not surprisingly, but are also the countries with the most party political polarisation on the questions - which we've noticed