Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

re advice for class:

Unfortunately, masks and distancing are the only really effective measures

I'd recommend you Email the head again for permission for him to wear a mask

• say you know they are allowed to make such decisions and you will be holding them fully responsible for the safety of your child and your family.

In the meantime:
Keep him home for any sniffles or ailment - v unlikely to be COVID, but it buys time for another U-turn
Put on / take off the mask in the class, before leaving / entering the room
Take all breaks outside if possible, including packed lunch
Take plenty of sanitiser and wipes

Thanks.

I keep seeing posts on school threads with people telling teachers to just get on with it like the NHS who apparently have worked as normal throughout. So this is my latest NHS experience, I have a condition that means I need to have blood tests twice a year, I knew mine was a bit late but knew they would get in touch when things were moving so yesterday I got a text telling me to contact them as i needed my blood test. Great. I know I can't just pop into reception as normal but that's OK I'll phone. I listen to a great rigmarole about covid and then told to go to their website unless it is covid (go somewhere else) or hang on. So off I go to the website.

Now the website gives me various options, to get advice, to ask to see a doctor, to request a sicknote etc. Nothing about booking a blood test so I send an admin message asking if I can book a blood test or advice about how to do it.

Chapter 3, I get an email telling me to phone them as the econsult can't deal with blood test requests (it was their request not mine) the number given is the one I tried originally or I can e mail them. So I email them. I think I'm now expected to sit by the phone and wait for them to contact me but who knows?

The NHS working as normal? Don't make me laugh. The staff on the wards yes but that is a small part of the NHS and some of the rest seems to have gone into isolation.

numbers falling in the past week in England despite increased testing (from 6616 to 6115 per week)

1522 cases today. Wasn't expecting it to be that high

1,522 cases today, a big leap. Hopefully driven by identifiable clusters, but need to drill down.

Sorry to be a pest @BigChocFrenzy if I keep him off for a sniffle for example will he have to have a test?

He wouldn't tolerate a test he has ADHD and I'm not sure he could be forced. He's the size of a grown man.

it looks like you can now download data by Lower Super Output Area (so a lower level of geography again than the MSOA map on the dashboard)- albeit less than 3 cases in a week still look to be suppressed, which limits the value certainly in low case number LAs. Nearly 33,000 rows mind.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#cases-by-lower-super-output-area-lsoa

@PatriciaHolm

1,522 cases today, a big leap. Hopefully driven by identifiable clusters, but need to drill down.

I think / hope that will explain today's increase. Excel clicking into action.

oldbag I hear you on the school concerns.

Unfortunately, many heads I know (despite media representations of teachers) are real macho posturing types who also want to please government and Ofsted often before their staff or students.

I think, though, that any head who refuses a child permission to wear a mask is on sticky ground.

Write an email or letter saying 'I wish to inform you, Leopold will be wearing a mask and request that you tell your staff not to speak to him about this or tell him to take it off'

Don't ask. Tell. I wouldn't even give a reason...

We have a head who has told staff we are not to wear masks. I have told my union rep I will be wearing one to do bus duty.

@herecomesthsun

numbers falling in the past week in England despite increased testing (from 6616 to 6115 per week)

I can’t read that as it’s behind a paywall. Can you sum up what it’s saying please, I could do with reading something positive.

Thank you piggy

For some reason it hasn't put it behind a paywall for me...

The number of people testing positive for coronavirus has declined for the first time in six weeks - despite an increase in tests.
Only 6,115 positive cases were recorded by NHS Test and Trace across England between Aug 13 and 19, down from 6,616 in the previous week.
The figures were released on Thursday, as ministers decided whether to impose more local or regional lockdownss_ in order to suppress the virus.
Restrictions remain in place in Greater Manchester, parts of Lancashire, Leicester, Luton and Northamptonn_.
Since the beginning of July, the statistics provided by Test and Trace had shown a steady weakly [sic] rise of positive results, outstripping the increase in the number of tests conducted.
They were used as evidence by some experts to argue for the reintroduction of lockdown measures.

(There's more but I don't believe a word of it I'm afraid)

@HoldingTight

For some reason it hasn't put it behind a paywall for me...

The number of people testing positive for coronavirus has declined for the first time in six weeks - despite an increase in tests.
Only 6,115 positive cases were recorded by NHS Test and Trace across England between Aug 13 and 19, down from 6,616 in the previous week.
The figures were released on Thursday, as ministers decided whether to impose more local or regional lockdownss_ in order to suppress the virus.
Restrictions remain in place in Greater Manchester, parts of Lancashire, Leicester, Luton and Northamptonn_.
Since the beginning of July, the statistics provided by Test and Trace had shown a steady weakly [sic] rise of positive results, outstripping the increase in the number of tests conducted.
They were used as evidence by some experts to argue for the reintroduction of lockdown measures.

Thank you

just received information about school start (primary and secondary) next week.
no school trips at all. the kids are very sad about this one
no mandatory masks (not uk) but teacher will be behind a screen or keeping distance.
pe only outside.
anyone with any cold symptoms, fever, loss of smell will have to stay at home and the whole household will have to isolate and get tested.
that will be an interesting winter...

This is very quick and dirty first look. LAs adding 8 or more cases to today's England total. 760 cases out of 1350 added in England - so another 590 still to account for. The list is case numbers only, no population context added yet.

There seems to have been a bit of catching up as well in England looking at the specimen dates. So in terms of today being Day 0 the number of cases added are:

Day -1 : 21
Day-2 : 652
Day -3: 384
Day -4 : 27
Day -5 : 38
Day -6 : 37
Day -7 : 22

then day -8 and beyond but still in August 157 cases (as compared with a net reduction of 1 case yesterday for that time period)

Then 12 additions covering March to July specimen dates.

No big increase in Breckland as far as I can see yet (poultry factory outbreak)

next set adding between 4 and 7 cases - Breckland does appear here with 7 cases added.

Thereafter

43 LAs added 3 cases
56 LAs added 2 cases
71 LAs added 1 case
57 LAs added 0 cases

@Oldbagface

Sorry to be a pest *@BigChocFrenzy* if I keep him off for a sniffle for example will he have to have a test?

He wouldn't tolerate a test he has ADHD and I'm not sure he could be forced. He's the size of a grown man.

... Sorry, oldbagface but I don't know UK school regs in sufficient detail I expect someone else here does though ?

[sigh]well in view of the 1,500 figures, the news doesn't look so good. The Telegraph figures reflect the situation from about 1-2 weeks ago, although it didn't seem likely at the time that the numbers were falling.

Does anyone here know anything about the Greece trajectory? Meant to be flying out on 14th to Rhodes which I think is very low but I'm a bit about having to quarantine on return

Hospital admissions and deaths remain very low - those figures are far more important than national case numbers

I don't know why the Telegraph claims figures are falling
Cases seem fairly stable, but with a slight upwrads trend

1,522 new cases on Uk dashboard
Hospital admission increasing over the last few days, but still at a very low level indeed

Just thought I'd mention what Tim Spector has just said on inside science on bbc radio 4; that symptoms in children have been shown by the Zoe app to be different to adults. Sore throat, fever, headache, loss of appetite, fatigue.

I think they've shown other symptoms eg cough but those have been the top 5.

Cases creeping in in my area.

Still generally low at 2-3 cases a week. But after weeks of nothing and then 8 in a week followed by 3 (so far!) The following.

Could be people returning from abroad or visiting places or even holiday in U.K.

But it's this point to watch imo as if test and trace is defective and isolation effective it shouldn't take off.