Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@MrDarcysMa

Does anyone here know anything about the Greece trajectory? Meant to be flying out on 14th to Rhodes which I think is very low but I'm a bit about having to quarantine on return

Switzerland and Czechia have just been added to the naughty list with (14 day cases per 100k popn) rates of 38.9 and 36.4 respectively. Greece currently stands at 29.8. I understand the alarm bells start ringing at 30 but more will be taken into consideration than just the case rate.

Switzerland and Czechia have rising cases and Greece has been reasonably stable in the last couple of weeks (after a steep rise). However, situations can change rapidly so I wouldn't be going anywhere if quarantine would cause problems for me.

Were there really only 21 cases in England yesterday? coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

Something really weird happened with the figures over the past couple of days.

More concerning with school and Autumn soon are the continuing issues with the % of failed tests from home kits and with track & trace systems

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/27/nhs-test-and-trace-hit-by-delays-and-covid-home-test-failures

@herecomesthsun

Were there really only 21 cases in England yesterday? coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

Something really weird happened with the figures over the past couple of days.

... No, there wee technical difficulties with the daskboard

PHE tweeted this and stated 1,048 new cases yesterday

I think herecomes was referring to this from boys3

There seems to have been a bit of catching up as well in England looking at the specimen dates. So in terms of today being Day 0 the number of cases added are:

Day -1 : 21
Day-2 : 652
Day -3: 384
Day -4 : 27
Day -5 : 38
Day -6 : 37
Day -7 : 22

Just thought I'd mention what Tim Spector has just said on inside science on bbc radio 4; that symptoms in children have been shown by the Zoe app to be different to adults. Sore throat, fever, headache, loss of appetite, fatigue.

If it's from the Zoe app though, then it would be "symptom -> request test", and with symptoms being unlikely in children in would hugely increase the chance of the symptoms being from another virus caught at the same time as covid, so this isn't actually super reliable evidence of symptoms, especially with the extremely low levels of positive tests at the moment.

I think cases and deaths always have some catch up; they are not really just what happens on a particular day, but when it is finally recorded officially and added on

So there will probably be some cases from today that are delayed in the stats and only added on to days over the next week or so

Restrictions are broadly working in Greater Manchester and cases are coming down in most areas:

@sirfredfredgeorge

Just thought I'd mention what Tim Spector has just said on inside science on bbc radio 4; that symptoms in children have been shown by the Zoe app to be different to adults. Sore throat, fever, headache, loss of appetite, fatigue.

If it's from the Zoe app though, then it would be "symptom -> request test", and with symptoms being unlikely in children in would hugely increase the chance of the symptoms being from another virus caught at the same time as covid, so this isn't actually super reliable evidence of symptoms, especially with the extremely low levels of positive tests at the moment.

Wouldn't they have thought of that and somehow accounted for it?

Office for National Statistics (ONS))@ONS*

Police recorded crime levels during the lockdown period were much lower than respective months in 2019, a pattern seen to differing degrees across most crime types
http://ow.ly/jidO50B9k0B

@HoldingTight

I think herecomes was referring to this from boys3

There seems to have been a bit of catching up as well in England looking at the specimen dates. So in terms of today being Day 0 the number of cases added are:

Day -1 : 21
Day-2 : 652
Day -3: 384
Day -4 : 27
Day -5 : 38
Day -6 : 37
Day -7 : 22

No the graph to which I linked showed 21 cases yesterday here -it's sort of interactive,so it is difficult to save and upload on here as an image rather than a link.

If there is a glitch with the system then that would explain it.

VHealth Passport and rapid testing kit - developed in Manchester

Maybe good for schools if trials are complete ?
Looks much less stressful than a swab test

Results within 10 minutes, with 98.7% accuracy.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-zara-and-mike-tindall-trial-covid-19-rapid-testing-kit-and-receive-results-on-camera-12057820

@NeurotrashWarrior

Just thought I'd mention what Tim Spector has just said on inside science on bbc radio 4; that symptoms in children have been shown by the Zoe app to be different to adults. Sore throat, fever, headache, loss of appetite, fatigue.

I think they've shown other symptoms eg cough but those have been the top 5.

Those are the exact symptoms my daughter has but we can't get her tested as she doesn't have temp/cough/taste and smell loss

@HoldingTight I think that is postive tests with a specimen date of yesterday (as in the test was taken yesterday). The figure will be added to over the days to come. The figure PHE report for cases (the 1500 or so today) refers to results reported back to them by 9am today, the specimen dates for these date back over several days usually.

@herecomesthsun yes, that's not a glitch - it's showing 21 cases in England with a specimen date of 26th. Which is a different measure to that of cases actually announced yesterday, which will incorporate cases with a variety of specimen dates, which is what boys3 is referring to.

That 21 will added to over the next 4-5 days.

Sorry, tagged wrong person there as was looking at the quoted text! Was meant for herecomesthesun

Thank you @HoldingTight and do you happen to to know what figure above 29.8 would trigger Greece being added?
I'm getting really overwhelmed with all the conflicting info I'm reading 😩

France seems to be spiralling out of control. 6111 cases today, from what I can see on Worldometer, that's the second highest figure they've ever recorded.

@SparkleSW

France seems to be spiralling out of control. 6111 cases today, from what I can see on Worldometer, that's the second highest figure they've ever recorded.

This is the site for reporting french cases. Yes, it's concerning. www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-chiffres-cles-et-evolution-de-la-covid-19-en-france-et-dans-le-monde

"6111 cases today, from what I can see on Worldometer, that's the second highest figure they've ever recorded"

Anyone have any insight as to why cases are growing so quickly in Spain and France They seemed to open earlier than we did and have cases under control for most of the summer

Is it people getting complacent after prolonged periods of low cases hospitalisations etc?
Returning holidaymakers?
The effect of opening schools?
Less effective contact tracing in Spain/ France Vs say Germany?

@MrDarcysMa

Thank you *@HoldingTight* and do you happen to to know what figure above 29.8 would trigger Greece being added? I'm getting really overwhelmed with all the conflicting info I'm reading 😩

Apparently UK use a 7 day number of 20 cases per 100k pn. Who knows what'll happen in the next three weeks? I guess you just keep watching and make a decision nearer the time - if your nerves can take it! We cancelled our french trip three weeks ago and booked a walking holiday in Wales

Wales is beautiful @HoldingTight, sure you'll have a great time.
We have to decide and change flights by tomorrow in order not to lose the money. So would be a gamble to wait 2 weeks.
Anyway sorry to derail the thread! X

I don't think the French schools have returned yet - I think that is next week.

No the graph to which I linked showed 21 cases yesterday here -it's sort of interactive,so it is difficult to save and upload on here as an image rather than a link.

If there is a glitch with the system then that would explain it.

There is no glitch in the system. so far 21 cases with a specimen date - eg the date the test was actually taken so the only meaningful date for any local decision making purpose - of yesterday have been reported and added to the overall cumulative confirmed case total* - this all being for England.

the 21 came from (single case unless stated)
Manchester
Bradford (3)
Kirklees (2)
Trafford (3)
Middlesbrough
Elmbridge
Bath and North East Somerset
Enfield (2)
Wigan
Chiltern
Lewisham
Islington
East Hertfordshire
Epsom and Ewell
Babergh

The 1350 reported today for England is made up of the 21 with a specimen date of yesterday, and then over previous days as I posted earlier.

If you take Birmingham the additional 71 cases added today include cases with specimen dates of 2nd May and 24th April - admittedly not many of course :)

Looking at it from another perspective last Thursday 1035 cases were reported in England, so initially today looks a lot worse - over 300 cases or 30% higher. Armageddon has arrived. But of course it hasn;t.

Thus far, and it should be pretty much there by now, there were 1217 confirmed cases last Thursday, these were reported through as follows:

Friday 21st - 4 cases (so another 1213 to be added)
Saturday 22nd - a further 671 cases added to the 20th
Sunday 23rd - 192 more
Monday 24th - 111 more
Tuesday 25th - 164 more
Wednesday 26th - 53 more, and finally,
today, Thursday 27th - 22 more to bring the total for last Thursday to 1217.

Whether today's actual case number proves to be higher or lower than last Thursday we don't yet know; but the likelihood of it turning out 30% higher - therefore close to 1600 cases - should be pretty low

An example of track and trace working.

Hope there are repercussions for the man.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hazmat-officials-remove-man-from-ryanair-flight-after-text-tells-him-of-positive-covid-19-test-result-12057854