Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@SparkleSW

France seems to be spiralling out of control. 6111 cases today, from what I can see on Worldometer, that's the second highest figure they've ever recorded.

from the French public health site linked by @HoldingTight the positivity rate is 3.8% although not sure if that is for recent tests or overall?

Their hospitalisation have been a lot higher than ours for quite a while

for the most recent week the key points set out www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/documents/bulletin-national/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-du-27-aout-2020

In France

Exponential progression of SARS-COV-2 virus transmission (+ 58% in W34), faster in young adults
Increase in the number of people with symptoms (+ 74%) representing more than half of cases
Increase in screening rates (+ 32%)
Increase in new hospitalizations and intensive care admissions
14 departments with an incidence above the threshold of 50/100 000 inhabitants and 10 classified in high vulnerability level
Continued increase in the number of clusters
Increase in the number of reports in nursing homes

I've not seen (or found yet) anything to suggest that their hospitalisation increase trajectory is anything like their case increase trajectory - likely due to more younger adults being confirmed with cases; which in turn implies lack of SD adherence etc

geodes.santepubliquefrance.fr/#c=indicator&f=0&i=covid_hospit.hosp&s=2020-08-27&t=a01&view=map2 French hospitalisation graph since start of pandemic

@IncludeWomenInTheSequel who is refusing? I thought you could get a test with a fever?

@IncludeWomenInTheSequel you can get a test by just answering "Yes" to the Have you got symptoms question, and "Other" to the Do you have one of the main symptoms question, which comes later in the booking process. Only useful if it's before Day 6 of her symptoms though. At least you could a couple of weeks ago.

The rolling 7-day case total and 7-day incidence figure give a more reliable trend than the daily case figure issued on the dashboard

COVID-19 outbreak at Greggs distribution depot in Leeds
t&t ongoing

I didn't realise fever was in the list, she doesn't have one. My mistake

Really interesting crime figures @BigChocFrenzy drugs offenses going up, most others going down but many the same. I wonder why.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/coronavirusandcrimeinenglandandwales/august2020

April 2020 therefore represents the only month where full UK lockdown measures were applied throughout,
during which time the police recorded their lowest number of crimes in England and Wales across all months in the year ending May 2020 (Figure 1).
This figure also represents the lowest monthly figure for April since April 2015.

The crimes that went down are the crimes that are difficult to do when most of the prospective victims are at home

Drug crimes went up - something to do in lockdown !

Drug crimes went up - something to do in lockdown!

I imagine it was actually that the police had a lot more time on their hands, so could pick up the small time dealers whilst not spending their days writing up reports and attending courts of their nights dealing with alcohol related stuff.

Haha Bigchoc I clicked into thread and read ‘the crimes that went down’ and thought ‘that doesn’t sound like Bigchoc’s voice‘... then realised you meant ‘incidence reduced’ rather than ‘happened’

On the drugs... as I understand it, all the people usually at work, confined by lockdown, were reporting their drug dealer neighbours whose activity that a)they might not usually notice and b)was forcibly confined to residences more than street dealing (I live in Camden )

I read that the neighbourhood pushers were an excellent example of private enterprise adapting very quickly:

They switched to a home delivery service, squirted each bag with sanitiser, received their cash, on to the next drop off

the crime stats are as interesting for what they don't include as well

Initial findings from the Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales (TCSEW) estimated a significant 32% reduction in total crime excluding fraud and computer misuse during April and May 2020 compared with a two-month average in the pre-lockdown period.

and thats before we even start thinking about domestic violence

@BigChocFrenzy

I read that the neighbourhood pushers were an excellent example of private enterprise adapting very quickly:

They switched to a home delivery service, squirted each bag with sanitiser, received their cash, on to the next drop off

criminal creativity and innovation should not be underestimated. There was an article a few months back essentially along similar lines (no pun intended) to this - except it applied to international drug supply chains and how the more forward thinking cartels were completely re-inventing their global strategies.

League tables are controversial in schools, let alone care homes, but so is keeping them secret.
Rather like not releasing survival figures for surgeons, if there are only just enough of them to go around
A difficult ethical issue.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/27/data-covid-care-home-deaths-kept-secret-protect-commercial-interests

Covid-19 death tolls at individual care homes are being kept secret by regulators in part to protect providers’ commercial interests before a possible second coronavirus surge
.....
England’s Care Quality Commission (CQC) and the Care Inspectorate in Scotland are refusing to make public which homes or providers recorded the most fatalities
amid fears it could undermine the UK’s care system, which relies on private operators.

In response to freedom of information requests, the regulators said they were worried that the supply of beds and standards of care could be threatened if customers left badly affected operators.

Also in the light of this study:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/27/fuller-care-homes-with-fewer-staff-had-more-covid-cases-study-finds

“Higher staff to resident ratios and reduced occupancy are critically important to reducing the spread of infection,”
< no shit, Sherlock >
concluded the study, which was funded by the government-backed Economic and Social Research Council.

Interestingly the argis map now shows areas with 0-2 cases, but they're still unshaded.

There's only a few patches of pale blue in my area, but clicking on a couple of the blank areas today has brought up '0-2.'

So when it lists a few blank surrounding areas next to a shaded, they're 0-2.

Eg: (this isn't my area.)

The CovKId project in the USA has tracked:

½ million cases for age 0-19
out of the US total 6 million confirmed
i.e. 1/12 of the total cases

but only 1,200 ICU admissions
and 114 deaths out of the US total of 185,000 confirmed deaths
i.e. 0.06% of the total deaths

covkidproject.org‬

Re the research announced today which shows that children are at extremely low risk of hospitalisation, intensive care and death from Covid:

has anyone seen the age range, I can't find it reported on or a link to the study?

Apparently it found that the 10-14 year old age group were among those more likely to be severely affected (also pre-existing conditions and BAME) so I suspect the upper age limit of the study was 14, but would like to know.

Thinking of secondary schools and sixth form colleges.

The arcgis map in London is slowly changing from almost entirely unshaded to a smattering of wards across London becoming pale blue suggesting increasing community transmission in line with news coming out of France, Spain Germany, Italy.

And in case you are thinking we have better testing availability now read this from the Guardian live feed. Three family members in different locations all experiencing problems accessing testing.

Study was on children up to 19

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3249

Basically children very unlikely to be affected at all but those that were affected by the syndrome were in the older age range.

I suppose my main quibble with that study is that shielded children were -well- shielded when the study was done. There is no doubt that when school age shieldees return they will be exposed more to every sort of medical hazard.

I really hope those stats are robust.

Obviously, this is timed to coincide with school reopening but I don't think any teacher thinks it is the children that are necessarily endangered. I still think if I had a CV child, I would be expecting more safety measures than the reality.

@choux I have to say I’m a little dubious about that guardian comment.

So the daughter in central London is saying there are basically no testing sites in London if the closest was 65 miles away. I did a very quick google which brought up a number of sites in London, a couple of which were half an hour or so by tube from either Brixton or South Ken. Ditto the hospital consultant. If he finds he can’t get tested at his hospital for whatever reason then surely he could still go to a testing centre or apply for a home test.

In any event isn’t the advice currently still not to get tested unless you have symptoms which neither of them did at that time. So if they had had sufficient contact with the girl who was actually unwell (who presumably could also have sent off for a home test if she couldn’t find anywhere to get tested to confirm if it was Covid or not) then they would have needed to follow procedure and isolate for 14 days which it seems neither of them did. So all in all I’m a little about that.

Obviously there are still plenty of holes in our system but I think it has improved a great deal.