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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 21:37

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
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104
TeaInTheGarden · 13/08/2020 23:18

Is it 300 positive tests? The news just now said 300 self isolating- I was assuming that included close contacts of the positive cases? Hopefully not 300 positive...?!

Timeforanotherusername · 13/08/2020 23:19

@Bb14

Thank you for all the wonderful input on this thread. Does anyone know if test that are privately carried out (such as in the recent Greencore outbreak) will be added to the number of positive tests total that is reported daily? Or are these just privately organised NHS tests. Thanks.
Good question!

I know in the recent Aberdeen outbreak, at least one of the positives had been identified through a private test (football player). I believe a NHS test was to be done for confirmation. So I guess only NHS one would count.

Here though you would have to question the logic of testing all again.

Timeforanotherusername · 13/08/2020 23:20

Tea from what I have seen reported it's 299 positive and some tests still come back.

The majority have been picked up through private testing.

MRex · 13/08/2020 23:21

The lab legally have to inform because it's a notifiable disease, no idea what timeframes they're operating to, but I guess it would count as pillar 2. (And I wonder if England's data is delayed to complete lab testing and get the big chunk of bad news into one day's figures.)

Timeforanotherusername · 13/08/2020 23:23

Apologies it's 292 cases.

79 were picked up by public testing. Remaining 213 cases privately.

boys3 · 13/08/2020 23:23

A slightly strange late evening question:

What do people make of North East Lincolnshire? I doubt many of you have been asked that before. :) That's Grimsby and well known global beach resort destination of Cleethorpes

Lowest cumulative cases per 100,000 of any top tier council area in England, and remains very low still - it's weekly rates for the past six week to w/e 9th Aug 2.5; 0.0; 3.1; 1.9; 1.9; 1.3; so no evidence of any uptick in cases.

Deprivation levels some the worst in the country; in the bottom 10 (as in 10 not bottom 10%) on several deprivation domains. So issues around underlying health conditions; obesity levels; housing etc, etc

Population density 827 per sq km; so sandwiched between MK and York, and way more than rural areas, but not as dense by some way as our larger cities and London Boroughs.

Hardly a hub of the knowledge economy so probably not the highest levels of home working opportunities.

Relative remoteness, poor transport links, no easily accessible larger cities (apologies to Hull); more limited commuting to original higher transmission areas, even the bracing North Sea air - do some / all of these go some way to explaining i?

Genuinely intrigued.

Quarantino · 13/08/2020 23:24

@TeaInTheGarden

Is it 300 positive tests? The news just now said 300 self isolating- I was assuming that included close contacts of the positive cases? Hopefully not 300 positive...?!
299 positive tests from workers - and still 300-400 not yet got results! www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-53762233

So what's the process re testing/isolating immediate friends/family, and the whole of that area? I hope there's some actual strategy?

It's an awful reminder of how infectious this bloody virus is.

MRex · 13/08/2020 23:24

I recall reading somewhere that not all labs have been certified to run the tests, so it'll depend on the company whether PHE re-run tests or not. (Though I thought the main issue with labs has always been too many false negatives, so it makes no sense to me.)

MRex · 13/08/2020 23:29

I just thought slightly harder, I suppose they have to be in the list or not and retest, because otherwise Mr Smith (chemistry teacher) could set up a lab in his allotment shed and despite contamination issues everyone's in lockdown.

TeaInTheGarden · 14/08/2020 00:01

Oh no- wishful thinking on my part then 😳
That’s a huge outbreak- how on earth was it not picked up sooner?!

SeekingCoffee33 · 14/08/2020 04:07

I live in Northampton. Prior to Covid a lot of people used to car share or take public transport to work in those areas as parking can be terrible. In watching buses go passed (also live opposite a bus stop) facemask wearing seems hit and miss. I’d hazard a guess that with that big an outbreak I doubt it’s just confined to Greencore.

Is there supposed to be some kind of update or speech from Boris today? I read on another thread that it was expected that there would be but I can’t find anything scheduled on BBC.

SeekingCoffee33 · 14/08/2020 04:10

Northampton has also been an area of concern or on the ‘watchlist’ for a while I believe. I certainly remember the council warning of rising cases since at least mid July.

GlassOfProsecco · 14/08/2020 05:05

Thanks for the new thread

tootyfruitypickle · 14/08/2020 06:04

It would be interesting to track how many of the staff get ill , and how seriously. I hope someone is doing a study , it seems a prime opportunity to understand what an outbreak looks like. If it’s been caught out of work it suggests most people aren’t aware / getting that ill? Not that that is any comfort of course that do.

Agree methods of getting to work may be the issue- it would certainly be my biggest concern about going to an workplace.

borntobequiet · 14/08/2020 06:30

In places where there are one or two big employers, employees are often family members, on the principle of it’s who you know. Even in my own place of employment which is only a big-ish employer in the area, it’s striking how many people have mums/dads/siblings/cousins working there. Ditto grandparents.
So infections might spread simultaneously via the workplace or the home.

Oldbagface · 14/08/2020 06:52

Thanks for this

NameChangeBingo · 14/08/2020 08:46

boys3 North East Lincolnshire has a very poor, white population. I think if you are rich enough to go skiiing, you are rich enough to live far, far away from Grimsby and Cleethorpes. I don't think it was initially seeded in the same way as many other places and following that, I don't think it had as much population movement. I think it may be being seeded currently, by the summer season in Cleethorpes. If Covid reaches the frozen food factories, they will be ripe for clusters to develop (close quarters, cold, noisy) as the people working in that area currently are quite disbelieving of its existence at all.

TeaInTheGarden · 14/08/2020 08:58

Let’s hope they do mass community testing in Northampton to figure this all out and stop the spread....
Is the factory still open do we know?

itsgettingweird · 14/08/2020 09:03

Hi here!

My sanity thread in all this madness!

alreadytaken · 14/08/2020 09:05

Northampton is pretty obviously a failure of track and trace since levels have been high for some time. I saw a reference to 4 outbreaks but wouldnt be surprised if they all tracked back to the factory. It was noticeable in Isle of Anglesey that when they dealt with the outbreak the level of infections was lower than before.

I've looked again at the study of 6 London care homes, finding the actual research report www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7387283/

It paints a rather different picture to the slant being placed on it. First the care homes studies probably did not have staff moving between them - not entirely clear but they dont appear to have been chosen with that in mind and their caveats include staff not wanting managers to know if they were working elsewhere.

Second the report talks of staff who worked in more than one home having higher infection rates. "Within this group, 15–18% of staff working in a single care home were infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the peak, which compares with 17.5% community sero-prevalence in London at that time.8 SARS-CoV-2 infection among staff working across different care homes, however, was 3-fold higher."

"Genomic analysis identified staff-only clusters, including clusters between patient-facing and non-patient staff, supporting staff to staff transmission. However, although identical viruses were identified in staff working in different care homes, WGS analysis could not distinguish whether this might have arisen by community transmission due to the low genetic diversity amongst circulating viruses."

and
"Finally, we identified a proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive staff members, especially among those working across different care homes, who were symptomatic at the time of testing (Fig. 1). A recent study reported that more than 70% of care home staff felt obligated to come to work even when they were sick.10"

Pretty clear from the actual report that they did consider staff moving between homes as a risk and they saw staff interaction in the homes as behind the increased risk.

The slant placed on that report was clearly biased.

The Devon live website reported the outbreak in this way

"As the South West coronavirus total rose from 15 to 22 - with all the known confirmed cases in Torbay - we went to visit the village of Churston, where the church has been closed for deep cleaning after a parishioner who attended last Sunday's service was later confirmed to have the virus.

There are also at least two confirmed cases linked to nearby Churston Ferrers Grammar School, another primary school pupil at St Margaret Clitherow Catholic Primary School in Brixham and now a church goer is ill with the virus.

The exact number of confirmed cases in Torbay has not been released - but two GP surgeries in Torquay have been closed for at least a fortnight."

So it was quite likely that initial care home infections in the South West came via that outbreak. I see no evidence being provided that the initial push to get patients out of hospital increased infection in care homes.

EducatingArti · 14/08/2020 09:08

Greater Manchester is due an update today on whether the tougher restrictions remain in place. My guess is that they will because some boroughs like Oldham are still doing badly.
Anecdotally lots of people here don't seem to be taking it that seriously. I live in flats with communal gardens and there were children and teens from 7 different families all playing together in close contact on Wednesday. People are still having friends and relatives meeting in gardens despite it being prohibited.

alreadytaken · 14/08/2020 09:09

Northampton now has 20 outbreaks apparently www.northamptonchron.co.uk/health/coronavirus/health-bosses-dealing-twenty-covid-19-outbreaks-northamptonshire-2941966

The factory certainly stayed open after the first batch of positive tests, although you would think public health would want it closed. The Iceland facility at Swindon also stayed open after the initial tests.

In contrast the Isle of Anglesey had all people from the factory self isolate. www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/anglesey-coronavirus-outbreak-how-community-18469120

Frazzled2207 · 14/08/2020 09:15

Thanks for the new thread. Just checking in.

tootyfruitypickle · 14/08/2020 09:17

I read an account (who knows if true!) that people were being taken out of the production lines as their positive tests came through, like something from a dystopian world. Must be a horrible time for everyone involved.

whenwillthemadnessend · 14/08/2020 09:22

Place mark Smile