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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 21:37

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
104
BigChocFrenzy · 26/08/2020 21:53

Boys Probably due to population density, much lower in the East
Also tends to have fewer international connections / travel

There is a vague theory about older residents in the East having a more powerful BCG vaccination, but there is no evidence or proper study so far.

Also different vaccinations would have been before 1990, when the former DDR ceased to exist
i.e. at least 30 years ago
The fomer Eastern states have a population of 16 million, but I don't have data for how many are aged 40+
(BCG would be after age 10)

OP posts:
boys3 · 26/08/2020 22:27

www.destatis.de/EN/Service/EXDAT/Datensaetze/mobility-indicators-mobilephone.html

from Germany again however some fascinating infographics on mobility and commuting. There are a lot of transport stats for the UK, however I've not seen anything like the time series maps for Germany. But if anyone has and could post the link(s) that would be great.

PrayingandHoping · 26/08/2020 22:29

[quote BigChocFrenzy]**@Firefliess I notice in your link that in the USA from this year, obese people and elderly people will receive a double dose of the flu vaccine, due to generally weaker immune systems
and that it is thought they will too for COVID

Anyone know if there will also be a double flu vacine in the UK ?

I wonder also what counts as "elderly" here:
I'm a normal BMI, but age 64, hardly ever get colds etc, so I'll see what my GP advises when it comes to the COVID vaccine
So far, I've only ever had a single dose of flu vaccine, but as I'm getting on ....[/quote]
Some people in UK are already given a higher dose of the flu jab. My FiL has a serious blood condition that effects his heart and is given it every year.

MRex · 26/08/2020 22:57

Google has interesting global mobility maps @boys3, select a country and open the PDF: www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

MRex · 26/08/2020 23:13

What's interesting (to me) about the UK Google mobility data is that there is little relationship between movement compared to baseline and current infections; compare London with Manchester. BUT retail has picked up in the last month in various areas that have rising cases. Anyone else spot patterns?

Also Cornwall looks rammed compared to what must be a busy holiday baseline, are they 3 to a bed this month?!?!

BigChocFrenzy · 26/08/2020 23:55

That's interesting about your FIL, Praying

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chipshopElvis · 27/08/2020 07:34

Thanks @MedSchoolRat, that's all good to know. I'm glad obesity is exciting for someone 😁.

IceCreamSummer20 · 27/08/2020 08:54

@boys3 great changing map on mobility in Germany. Very visual.

alreadytaken · 27/08/2020 10:32

Interesting to compare Cornwall with Devon and Dorset. All 3 have had low virus levels but while Cornwall does look like they are 3 to a bed the other 2 dont, although Torbay is doing better than the rest of Devon. Also noticeable that supermarket sales are rising sharply in Cornwall - but that none of the 3 had lower levels than normal throughout the time period covered. Could be that delivery services are not good there or that people are not as reluctant to venture out when virus levels are low.

Conwy and Pembrokeshire are also having good summer seasons.

sleepwhenidie · 27/08/2020 10:35

MRex I am in Cornwall, spent two weeks around the end of July and it was very busy, back again for another week and now it is crazy, yes quite possibly three to a bed! Interestingly however, according to LittleOwl’s great website, the positive test rate in Cornwall and Scilly Isles continues to fall, seems to be very few cases. Reinforces the theory that beaches and even busy streets aren’t a problem-shops are being ultra careful here and restaurants sensible. Also, if you think about it, unless you are busy pub or clubbing type of people most probably stay more in a family bubble on holiday than you would at home, meeting friends and extended family and being in other people’s houses.

whenwillthemadnessend · 27/08/2020 10:43

I'm in Cornwall too. The shops are pretty much operating a one family in one out system. Every pub I've been too is taking numbers and tables are spaced out. The beaches I've been to are busy but not horrendous as there are a lot to choose from and I defy any virus to hang on to a human in the sea!! Ha ha waves are huge.

Only had one incident on a bench where a cozy women actually sat on my dd to sit on our bench! Even tho it was clearly full by my family.

whenwillthemadnessend · 27/08/2020 10:45

Dozy not cozy. Tho it was pretty cosy. 😂

EducatingArti · 27/08/2020 10:49

@MRex

What's interesting (to me) about the UK Google mobility data is that there is little relationship between movement compared to baseline and current infections; compare London with Manchester. BUT retail has picked up in the last month in various areas that have rising cases. Anyone else spot patterns?

Also Cornwall looks rammed compared to what must be a busy holiday baseline, are they 3 to a bed this month?!?!

The NorthWest still had a higher proportion of cases than London when lockdown started to lift ( Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said that he thought it was too early to lift lockdown here) so I suspect that is why we have had a higher incidence of new cases in the North West despite more movement in London. Of course if the R is over 1, London may yet see the same problems. It is just that it started from a lower baseline.
BigChocFrenzy · 27/08/2020 11:23

BMJ paper :Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?

Necessary social distance depends on masks, occupancy, indoor vs. outdoor, silence vs. speaking vs. shouting, ventilation.....

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223

"Environmental influences are complex and are likely to be mutually reinforcing.

This is shown, for example, in meat packing plants, where outbreaks have been attributed to the combination of high levels of worker contagion, poor ventilation, cramped working conditions, background noise (which leads to shouting), and low compliance with mask wearing.

Similar compound risk situations might occur in other crowded, noisy, indoor environments, such as pubs or live music venues.

Physical distancing rules would be most effective if they reflected graded levels of risk.

Figure 3 presents a guide to how transmission risk may vary with setting, occupancy level, contact time, and whether face coverings are worn.

These estimates apply when everyone is asymptomatic.

In the highest risk situations (indoor environments with poor ventilation, high levels of occupancy, prolonged contact time, and no face coverings, such as a crowded bar or night club)
physical distancing beyond 2 m and minimising occupancy time should be considered.

Less stringent distancing is likely to be adequate in low risk scenarios.

People with symptoms (who should in any case be self-isolating) tend to have high viral load and more frequent violent respiratory exhalations."

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15
OP posts:
ancientgran · 27/08/2020 12:12

I'm in Devon and we have had low numbers but I've noticed Torbay and Plymouth seem to be creeping up. I suppose it was likely with the holiday makers in Torbay as in the rest of Devon the figures would cover holiday areas and quieter rural areas.

ancientgran · 27/08/2020 12:15

Just seen the problem in Plymouth was a group of 30 teenagers who had been on holiday in Greece and many of them are testing positive.

Augustbreeze · 27/08/2020 12:48

Re the new payment of SSP equivalent to qualifying isolaters in "lockdown" areas:

Are there are any data /estimates as to how many that may affect when it starts on Tuesday?

Apparently it will only be rolled out to more high risk areas if it can be proven to work. How will bit be proven??

EducatingArti · 27/08/2020 13:51

I saw that paper BigChocFrenzy. It has made me quite worried about schools restarting here in Greater Manchester.

Oldbagface · 27/08/2020 14:28

I've not caught up yet. I've not read that paper but I'm very nervous. We are in Greater Manchester and have decided to send our DC back because his mental health is declining.

Worried sick. Any sage advise would be welcome.

He is not allowed to wear a mask in class but wishes to.

He is going to strip and shower on return home.

What else can we do?

EducatingArti · 27/08/2020 14:37

Does anyone in your family have increased risk from Covid19?

Oldbagface · 27/08/2020 14:59

Yes me and the dc returning to school.

Also dh is my full time carer and carer to our disables DC.

Of he ends up laid up with it we will not manage.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/08/2020 15:36

"He is not allowed to wear a mask in class but wishes to"

I thought staff & students could choose in lockdown areas ? Hmm

I'm astonished it isn't at least optional everywhere in the country
some kids will be nervous; 90,000 others are only a few weeks out of shielding
Then there are all the middle-aged staff and vulnerable family members

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Oldbagface · 27/08/2020 15:40

Sorry bigchoc. I wasn't clear. He has to wear it while moving about the School but is not allowed to wear it in class. Utterly bonkers.

Any ideas how we can minimise transmission apart.from the obvious.

Very nervous.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/08/2020 15:42

I'm surprised it isn't at least optional in class too
It is here, in those states where it is not yet compulsory

Horrible not to let nervous staff or students wear masks if they wish

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walksen · 27/08/2020 15:43

Oldbagface

Try writing a letter or email to the school setting out the issues in your family and requesting your DC be allowed to wear a mask. If this is refused you could ask to see the risk assessment done for pupils?

Even before the guidance changed lots of schools were going to allow discretionary use. Some refused on the grounds of the government's stance on impeded communication but this may now change.