Elimination / zero covid approach

[Orangeblossom78]

The Guardian have been going on about this but they seem vague and do not say how they plan to do this along with not totally locking down the country again.

It seems vague and about being 'stricter' can anyone tell me what they mean and how it would work. They talk about places like New Zealand and Iceland which are quite different to hear. and even those places have a small amount of cases.

It doesn’t work unless you can shut your boarder I guess technically we could as an island (but only as part of a pact with Ireland) but for most countries it’s impossible as China found as cases always come across the boarder. Basically you lockdown early and until all cases are gone but I struggle to see how it would work outside specific very isolated nations (New Zealand has an issue that it wants at least an air corridor with Australia but can’t as they have cases!)

It’s a tough tradeoff. New Zealand’s economy is fucked but I’d give anything to be living a completely normal life there right now.

But even if you did, how could it work in a high density populated country like the UK now it is endemic here? and not even symptomatic on many cases? Unless we did something like another extended lockdown for months and months...which would destroy the economy/

and what about the adverse effects and weighing up the harms of such an approach?

Scientists in the Guardian said they thought NZ economy was fine. But they were scientists not economists. I thought it was suffering.

And of course New Zealand imports a much lower proportion of its food (11%) for a much smaller population. And none of those imports come in on a large number of lorries with limited/no biosecurity controls.

NZ is much closer to self sufficient, and is a fuck of a long way from anywhere else. Both huge advantages if you want to cut yourself off.

Presumably the idea is to remain isolated until there is a vaccine.

If there isn't one, then what do they do?

The approach is laid out in the pdf document which is linked to on this page:
www.independentsage.org/independent-sage-on-achieving-a-zero-covid-uk-i-e-the-elimination-of-the-virus-from-the-uk/

It seems to be the favoured approach of the Scottish and Northern Ireland governments. It has also been explained by Devi Sridhar, who is a public health policy academic and an advisor to the Scottish government.
mobile.twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1287295555761311744

It means getting cases down to a very low level (I think 5 cases per million has been suggested), having an effective test, trace and isolate system in place to maintain that level and a quarantine system in place to prevent imported cases.

This would allow a return to relative normality (or at least a new normal) rather than a constant stop/start local lockdowns/ whack a mole approach which would be more harmful in both economic and health terms.

Also explained here:
mobile.twitter.com/wef/status/1275836084564324352

It's an interesting question. Clearly it wouldn't be easy, but we are an island(s) nation and also one of the richest countries in the world, so if it's worth at least considering anywhere it surely is here. I hope that someone somewhere in government is crunching the numbers, to see how the costs and benefits work out in detail. It would mean some harsh trade-offs and focus a lot of pain on the travel and airline industries but maybe it would be worth it if other things could come back to normal? If some businesses and industries are going to suffer anyway, would it be better to pick and choose those that might let the largest number of other industries, education, health and so on go back to normal? It's definitely worth asking those questions I think.

I would rather like in a country like NZ’s where economy is messed up, but my kids go to school, and life is normal again. People have high confidence in going out, have a good time and spend money and go to work.

UK’s economy is messed up too even though we didn’t close our borders like NZ. The coming winter is shouting doom and gloom. We don’t know whether our kids are going to school and how big the second wave is.
Many people have no confidence with how the virus situation is being tackled, me being included. I don’t have the confidence to eat out in a restaurant as the virus might be present in the community. So we have three things here in England: messed up economy, potential of a second wave and little confidence in the CV19 handling. We are losing on all fronts.

I know which country I’d rather live in now.

@Rhianna1980

I would rather like in a country like NZ’s where economy is messed up, but my kids go to school, and life is normal again. People have high confidence in going out, have a good time and spend money and go to work.

UK’s economy is messed up too even though we didn’t close our borders like NZ. The coming winter is shouting doom and gloom. We don’t know whether our kids are going to school and how big the second wave is.
Many people have no confidence with how the virus situation is being tackled, me being included. I don’t have the confidence to eat out in a restaurant as the virus might be present in the community. So we have three things here in England: messed up economy, potential of a second wave and little confidence in the CV19 handling. We are losing on all fronts.

I know which country I’d rather live in now.

This. Although I am in Scotland which is aiming for elimination, although the border with England will make that difficult to maintain. Nicola S can’t close the borders but she could implement travel bans I guess, tbh if it was the difference between getting some normality here back and not I’d be all for it.

On balance I think it's a better plan, especially for children and elderly people.

The Guardian have been going on about this but they seem vague
Pretty much applies to anything the Guardian prints. A vague wishlist without practical solutions.

I'm rather tired of the constant comparisons made between the UK and New Zealand. One is a couple of sparsely populated islands thousands of miles from their nearest neighbour (itself with relatively few cases). The other is the fifth largest economy in the world, heavily overpopulated, 30 miles from the continent with many ferries, trains and flights connecting it (mostly to countries also badly hit), reliant on imports and international commerce to survive.

You cannot make comparisons between countries so different.

It’s a tough tradeoff. New Zealand’s economy is fucked but I’d give anything to be living a completely normal life there right now.

They won't be living a completely normal life for long if the economy is fucked and they will regret these actions soon enough. I think eradication is completely unrealistic. Unless of course they want to stay isolated forever and ruin their society. Doubtful. When are people going to face the fact that we have to live with this?

How is having their borders closed (if that's what you mean by isolated) ruining their society?

Isn't open borders but an internal lockdown worse for society?

I'm living on an island in the British Isles, our borders shut in March and we have been Covid free for 60 days now. Our schools have been back a while now, we have no social distancing, life is pretty much normal here. But we are isolated in a bubble and our borders can't stay closed forever. We do have a staged plan to open, it's dependent of the uk numbers coming down to I think 1 in 5000. It's cost our economy massively. But we now have our own testing centre on island, track & trace is on the ball. 14 day isolation & if you break it it's £10,000 fine or up to 3 months in prison. Police & locals are shit hot at making sure people stick to it

I think once you have even a few cases, it's really hard to completely eliminate it. Vietnam announced 30 new cases today and they hadn't had any in weeks before this, very strict lockdown, testing and tracing and closed border.

It is really widespread in every part of the UK, so short of quarantining the whole country for a fortnight, I don't see how eliminating it is possible.

We should have done as Taiwan did and banned people travelling from China as soon as it became apparent this was an issue. They've had no new cases in three months, nothing is closed, life is normal.

It is possible, but you need to close borders, and probably have a much stronger police presence, if not military, to enforce quarantine/self isolation. Some people just aren't following the rules, for whatever reason.

ItWasNotOk the vast majority of infections in the UK came in from Europe, mainly France, Spain and Italy, not China.

I'd be all in favour of it. We have a unique position - why not use it for once! Shutting the borders or imposing proper government led quarantine IS possible. Then we could all go back to school and actually get on with life. But it would take a well orchestrated plan and I'm not sure this government could organise a piss up in a brewery.

@feelingverylazytoday yeah I guess it wouldn't really have worked in Europe. At any rate, closing the border or a two week quarantine should have happened.

It’s a tough tradeoff. New Zealand’s economy is fucked but I’d give anything to be living a completely normal life there right now.

Our economy is no more "fucked" than anyone else's at the moment, and we were in a better shape than many other countries were to start with.

They talk about places like New Zealand and Iceland which are quite different to hear. and even those places have a small amount of cases.

I can't speak for Iceland, but all the cases in NZ are in people who are in quarantine.

I’m in New Zealand and everything is back to normal here apart from zero overseas travel. The only cases here are at the boarder in quarantine - imported cases from overseas contained in quarantine as all arrivals have to quarantine for 14days in a designated quarantine hotel. There are zero community cases and that has been the case for 80 days.
The economy is not fucked.
Obviously the boarders will not remain closed forever but we are currently in a lucky position to live life pretty much normally while the government can plan for the future without simultaneously trying to firefight a community outbreak and all that entails. We are an island and have a smaller population , however there are very densely populated cities. Our lockdown was very strict and I would say the majority of people followed the rules.

Well said @JustTheOneMrsWembly

If you get the infection level low enough then it's safe enough for everyone to live a relatively normal life - which is what we all want isn't it?

I don't understand the negativity.

You need two things: a decent find test trace isolate and support system and a population that understands that this is the best option.