Elimination / zero covid approach

[Orangeblossom78]

The Guardian have been going on about this but they seem vague and do not say how they plan to do this along with not totally locking down the country again.

It seems vague and about being 'stricter' can anyone tell me what they mean and how it would work. They talk about places like New Zealand and Iceland which are quite different to hear. and even those places have a small amount of cases.

@Orangeblossom78 I don't really understand your question. The Quarantine fee is not yet current and there is supposed to be options for returning kiwi's in financial hardship. But until it's actually working no one can say how well it's working for our vulnerable.

No problem with healthcare here. There would have been if we had been overwhelmed with covid but we arent. We have catch up with operations that were cancelled in lockdown but apart from that I think it's business as usual.

@Orangeblossom78 I don't think there is any more concern over health care in NZ than any other country.
I've worked in the health system there and it's not without issues but comparable to most other countries I've worked in.

@MintyMabel I think it's too early to call that! Wait for a year or two and then see who the winners and losers are.

I think it's too early to call that!

To call what? Wrong answers?

I'm not sure we need to wait a couple of years to see if Trump has wholly failed the US on Covid.

"It’s not practical. Perhaps if there was a reasonable vaccine on the horizon we could hold out? But is there?"

140 vaccine candidates, 6 of which are already in stage 3 trials (with efficacy data expected in as little as 2 months from now) and vaccine efficacy already demonstrated in primates.

The likelihood of a vaccine being available in a 6 month to 1 year time period (first quarter 2021 to mid 2021) seems quite high.

www.statnews.com/feature/coronavirus/drugs-vaccines-tracker/
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

I'm just wondering how long do they intend it to last for. Good to hear healthcare is good.

I'm in NZ and working in public health. Elimination was the right strategy for NZ. The health care system is good but doesn't have excess capacity especially in ICU so would have struggled very quickly with a significant outbreak.

I dont think the economy will be any worse off in the long run. Internal economy seems active - lots of domestic tourism and bars / restaurants busy. Retail sales at close to normal levels.

On the quarantine charge it's really to prevent NZ people from going on holidays and expecting free quarantine on return. People moving home permanently won't be charged and there are all sorts of exemptions for various reasons.

And fact is if everyone did what NZ did there wouldn't be a problem anywhere now.

I'm particularly grateful that my DD has had minimal interruption to her education. Unlike her cousins in Ireland who have missed close to 4 months and may have further disruption.

NZ may eventually have to open up even without a vaccine. But will happen in the context of knowing a lot more about how the disease works. When the decisions to do a hard lockdown were made no one really understood the impact of BMI etc. TBH there are a lot of other factors such as blood pressure, age, sex etc that have a significant impact too.

In the meantime we are building better national systems for contact tracing and reviewing all our systems so they can cope with any future cases.

I think we are fortunate in NZ as we are in winter, but we do earn huge revenue from tourism. I live in an area which benefits hugely from cruise ships and there are many tourist attractions that will suffer greatly when the cruise season does not recommence in spring. I think we are all just hoping that a vaccine will be found before the decision to open up has to be made.

I do not think our government will change anything until after the election in September - it would not be an election winner to let Covid19 back in NZ.

I'm generally okay with the charges that have been put in place. These seem to be aimed at stopping people from holidaying, either from NZ or from overseas to NZ. I'd feel weird about charging kiwi's including our indigenous people/tangata whenua to return home.

I see the current crisis as on par with the second world war. Although I feel for those with families they want to visit, I think we need to make sacrifices in this situation at this point in time. All of my extended family are in the UK so the charges would apply to me if I have to go. I know several people who have not been able to already due to lack of flights and the difficulty of taking the amount of leave that would be needed.

NZ has a housing overcrowding problem which is linked to an extended family model in our Maori, Pacifika and increasing Asian populations. I used to work in a job where I'd read about families living 20 to a 4 bed house or 12 to a two bed. You can see that Covid would spread fast in these situations. Add to that higher levels of obesity, diabetes and heart disease. and the possibility that these groups are more genetically susceptible. They were decimated by European illnesses such as the 1918 flu in the past. Data from Pacific peoples in the USA suggests a Covid infection rate 2 or 3x higher than other ethnic groups. I feel it's really important that we protect our most vulnerable and I'm willing to be restricted for that.

But aren't you at least cross you now cannot visit your homeland or your parents for what could be years? Unless you are prepared to stump up thousands of dollars?
And your parents can never visit you? What if something happens to a loved one there? Or with your family?

But this is the difference isn’t it? I am in Australia and (not withstanding the Melbourne security guard debacle) I am not angry at all at being cut off and trapped on an island. Totally worth it to be stuck within a couple of states to be able to go out with less fear and crack on with life. When we were almost at elimination state I was so happy. The concept of basically being able to go back to normal but with the free run of the country was intoxicating. Every single person I know has been fully supportive of state and country border closures and a LOT of them are originally from overseas. If I want to see my family someone quarantines. That is just how it is.

Yes...if you look at indigenous populations in the Amazon they have been hit hard...given the vulnerable populations there and also the island nature you can see how that approach would be needed. and specific to the nature of the area as well

British people seem to be particularly non compliant
@IrmaFayLear I think you'll find that if you step away from the tabloids and social media, Brits have been just as compliant as any other Western European nationals.

I do find it odd that anyone would say they prefer the British approach to the NZ approach, when NZ now has better economic and health conditions, and people can get out and have fun.

Me too. Especially when they have, you know, 50 000 loved ones still with them to enjoy it with. And children who can go to school in safety.

I’d like to see the impact on U.K. if we closed borders at the same stage NZ did.

The date? February maybe and how long we can sustain it

But here people were roaring about racism when it was mooted that flights from China should be stopped at the beginning of the pandemic. Can you imagine if all international flights in had been stopped?

"I know someone on Guernsey as well, they are back to normal but unsure about her coming to visit due to the fines etc so she is quite isolated. Interesting to hear about though"

Guernsey and where I live The Isle of Man have opened can air tunnel to let the people go on holiday for a break away & to give a small boost to the tourism economy. It started last week and appears to be popular and working well. It's flights running by Guernseys own airline. As both islands have been Covid free for a while now it's very low risk.
But it's a step in the right direction & no need for isolation upon return.

When our borders first closed in March there were a few thousand locals stuck in UK and abroad & it's taken months to repatriate them. At the start they designated a Quarantine hotel that was taken over by our government & staffed with security 24/7. 14 days isolation in your hotel room, all meals brought to your room & designated 1 hour exercise outside each day supervised by security guards. Each resident had to pay the £1000 cost upfront before they were allowed on boat to travel.
There was a lot of complaints but as an island we just got in with it and did as asked.
I think there were around 40 arrests for breaking lockdown or self isolation and quite a few of those ended up in prison for 6, 10 or 12 weeks. Others got hefty fines. Our police didn't mess around. If you had been spoken to and warned & were caught again you were straight to court. We have a population of around 85,000
The locals too can be relied upon to report anyone breaking the rules.

Also meant to add, as an island we are very proud of what we have achieved and are in no hurry to open the borders. We are now stage 4 of a 5 stage plan. Residents can now travel off island if they wish but have to mandatory isolate 14 days upon return. This is being monitored by Public Health and the police who both phone & call at your home unexpectedly to make checks.
Interestingly on today's briefing our Health Minister was talking about the antibody tests, we have done 5000 so far, preliminary findings are that the antibodies do not stay in your body long, it's looking like a few months only.

Thanks, thing is I think the relative on Guernsey would mainly be travelling to see her two sons and grandchildren in England,she lives alone there so not sure she would want to go to the Isle of Man. Or have her grandchildren on holiday...

As I said in my post our residents are allowed to travel to UK & abroad if they want with mandatory 14 day isolation upon return. The Guernsey air corridor is to allow people to go on holiday but NOT have to isolate upon return

@MarshaBradyo

I’d like to see the impact on U.K. if we closed borders at the same stage NZ did.

The date? February maybe and how long we can sustain it

I would also like to see that. I think we're in a long term slump now. Maybe a deeper shorter v would have been better.

We'll never know!

Labyrinth yep I googled ‘What if UK did the same as NZ’ hoping for a Forbes style article.

Lockdown may have been shorter but quarantine looong. Until vaccine.

Iceland are having a new outbreak after possible elimination, maybe they let their guard down...not a high population there though I suppose