Elimination / zero covid approach

[Orangeblossom78]

The Guardian have been going on about this but they seem vague and do not say how they plan to do this along with not totally locking down the country again.

It seems vague and about being 'stricter' can anyone tell me what they mean and how it would work. They talk about places like New Zealand and Iceland which are quite different to hear. and even those places have a small amount of cases.

It would be good in theory, but in practice it’s impossible. It’s already in the community so we would need another lockdown. But not lockdown lite, a severe lockdown with some way to ensure that families didn’t mix or attend community events. This would have to last weeks to make sure the virus had died off.

Meanwhile the virus rages elsewhere, so we’d have to keep our borders closed for... years. Italy had a very strict lockdown. They have a flights ban from severely-affected countries. However, all the time migrants are arriving from Africa. I think several hundred were found to be infected with Covid, and many escaped from the arrival centre, so off we go again, with people merrily spreading the virus.

NZ also had timing on their side.

Lock down occurred on the same date? Iirc March 23

For them it was right at the beginning with few cases, also a raft of evidence meant the population accepted it more easily

I wonder what date would have been comparable in U.K.

What would people do differently for next one? Maybe everyone would close to China early (overlooking the cover up around the time of the Dr)

@MarshaBradyo Japan aren't doing that well these days, their rate is rising every day.

But basically you can easily see that most Asian countries have done far better than most western countries, despite coronavirus arriving in Asia before Europe.

I don't think NZ is the only example. Even in Europe there are countries with much better coronavirus success than us: Norway, Austria (Greece in the first wave at least).
It is not a success only achievable by the circumstances of NZ. It could be achieved by any country.
In terms of the effect on the economy of aiming for elimination/eradication, I doubt this would have been any more harmful than the economic damage being done now and for the foreseeable future due to continued medium-term restrictions being required due to circulating virus numbers in this country and the consequent reluctance of the UK population to go out and spent money. A short sharp but full lockdown in March to achieve elimination/eradication would probably have had less of a damaging effect on the economy than this interminable restrictions on normal life that we in England are going to have to live with now for many more months to come.

E.g. never during lockdown were there any restrictions on flights in or out of the UK. Many coronavirus cases continued to be imported from Europe during lockdown just so the aviation industry could continue. But this just postponed the problem as we are now seeing. The unrestricted flights in and out of the country from other coronavirus-affected countries is not sustainable and is already having to be curtailed.

Of course tackling the rate of obesity is a valid intervention, and not just a method of 'deflecting blame' as some people seem to think.
There isn't one thing that is going to work, every possible step to reduce the impact has to be tried.
It's becoming very obvious over the months that this virus is much more damaging and difficult to stamp out than was initially thought.

I am also in NZ, but my Mum is in the UK and I would love to get back to see her, but the thought of doing 2 weeks quarantine in UK on arrival and then 2 weeks quarantine on return to NZ means at the moment I am staying here.

I have had two flights cancelled up to now and have another for the end of October but am not holding out much hope for that.

I know quite a few people in NZ who would love to get back to the UK to see family but just too difficult at the moment. I do worry about something happening to my Mum as she is 90 and sometimes I wonder if I will ever see her again - it is a tough time, but we are all well and I am thankful for that.

Japan is actually still doing very well despite never having locked down and it’s nigh impossible to get tested. They don’t really do track and trace but try to somehow identify superspreaders?

In fact, there’s just a lot we don’t know. But despite the advanced age of society, their low obesity rates must help a lot.

Over a thousand cases of covid returned via flights and entry to the UK prior to lockdown which is why the urgent approach to stopping flights to Spain now.

UK saying can't afford another lockdown though. So would be the local ones if needed.

I don't agree on Japan sorry they are having more cases recently and it's a concern there- big rise in recent weeks..

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

Interesting Mango whole post but especially this ‘but try to somehow identify superspreaders?’ If so I wonder how

1001 deaths is very low though.

Did they even do lockdown?

Yes Marsha I agree on low death rates and possible underlying health..

It isn't just elimination/eradication that helps a country survive coronavirus better. As others have mentioned, obesity and general health of the population plays a major role.
But also the existing state of the health service is a major factor. Sweden never locked down, but never had such a bad situation as the UK either. Still death levels below ours. The health service (and ITUs) were already far far better than ours. They probably ensured that they at the very least prepared properly with PPE, which our government did not do, leading to massive infections within NHS staff and patients and then wider community.
The total lack of planning for how to control infection in care homes also caused more virus spread.
Our country is once again following the policies of countries that could be said to have failed in the first wave rather than the policies of countries that arguably had better success in the first wave. Why can't we learn from our mistakes?

I know there are links to obesity but does being obese mean you’re more likely to catch the virus? Just wondering what impact that has on infection rates? I thought everyone was as at much risk of infection, but that it was factors like obesity that might determine the severity.

As for countries who have done well I wouldn’t be so sure that’ll last.

Marsha, looking at death rates is not always helpful because not every country records deaths in the same way. It may give a general idea but it's not always that accurate.

Having said that, the Japanese have a great diet, very little obesity, very clean living conditions, masks are a norm, people are generally very considerate of others, decent healthcare system, so of course they're doing better than the UK.

"As for countries who have done well I wouldn’t be so sure that’ll last."

Any country that has implemented a track and trace system that works is likely to continue to do well.

Look at South Korea for example. They practically eliminated it, then had another flare up (but still very few cases compared to Europe), then quickly contained it. Several small outbreaks here and there since then, but nothing big. There were fewer than 10 cases today. And their death rate is tiny, less than 500 I think.

Itwas true, it would be good to know more about how deaths are recorded there

Kiwi overseas here. I usually take my kids back to NZ twice a year, Xmas and June/July.
We skyped my parents this morning & while they are sad that there's limited chance of us visiting anytime soon, they fully support the border measures as do I.
What's important at the current time is protecting NZ borders, not my holiday. If I want to move home for good I still can- there's no quarantine charge for Kiwis coming back in for more than 90 days. If I want to go for a shorter time I still can, I just have to pay for my own 2 week isolation charge and to be fair, why should the government pay there for me? I haven't paid any tax in NZ or contributed to the economy in any real way in at least 5 years.
It's more important to me that my family in NZ live 'normal' lives than that I visit them.
And the economy is not fucked.

@MarshaBradyo As far as I know, in the UK if you've ever had a positive test, and then die, you get recorded as a coronavirus death. (Is that right?) But in Japan, if you have it and then die of a heart attack, even if it's related to coronavirus, it is recorded as a heart attack.

To be honest, I don't trust the Japanese government with anything. They are very invested in keeping their status as the most developed Asian country. (Nothing against the Japanese people, it's their government particularly I dislike.)

I don't agree on Japan sorry they are having more cases recently and it's a concern there- big rise in recent weeks

Deaths haven’t really gone up though? Haven’t checked hospitalisations but haven’t heard they are reaching capacity.

It seems with coronavirus that if you test for it, you will find it. But is finding tens of thousands of asymptomatic people meaningful?

I think Japan operates under the assumption that it isn’t

But in Japan, if you have it and then die of a heart attack, even if it's related to coronavirus, it is recorded as a heart attack

Iirc excess deaths are actually below average for the year in Japan, which doesn’t suggest this at all

I'm glad to see we have been able to have a rational conversation here which is not always the case with the virus discussions!

@MarshaBradyo

Sasha can’t they fly home and quarantine?

yes I think they can if they are citizens (although Air NZ has deliberately reduced the number of flights to NZ to slow down demand so they can cope with the numbers and the flight prices have gone). The problem is they have to pay for their own 2 weeks quarantine. Cost is over £3k (NZ) for one person and then £1k for each adult and then £500 for each child. So impossible for so many people - effectively a insurmountable barrier for most (apart from the rich of course) So my colleague can't afford to go home - single person. Imagine the costs for a family!

Google #teamofsixmillion if you are interested.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

On Japan..

That was written a month ago though...