Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

Yes

I think we are facing a second wave but I don’t think we will be put in lockdown again. The country can’t afford it and that seems to be the priority now.

Thanks @WurraBurra!

So is everyone just resigned to this now and convinced it will happen? I’ve been planning for schools to reopen, to return to some version of normal but maybe I’ve been deluding myself...

We won’t lock down again. Where’s the money coming from to do that? Lockdown was a one shot deal I think and the rest we will just push through.

x post @Pixxie7 - but without a lockdown, if there’s a major spike, how will we flatten the curve again? I think that’s what I don’t understand... will track and trace be enough in that scenario?

I think they will attempt to shut down pockets of infection and pretend everything is ok. So no change really.

I too think there will be no second lockdown, financially the first one has brought the country to its knees, I don't believe there is money for a second one, hopefully with all the measure put in place since easing lockdown such as social distancing and mask wearing will be enough to keep it to a level that is manageable, only time will tell I guess.

They can use all the redundant nightingale hospitals then. As proper fever hospitals. Stop mixing all the patients up with non infected and allowing it to spread.

It won't be as bad anyway. You're just seeing pockets where too few people were exposed and are now starting to be again. If you live in an area where it didn't really take off, be worried. If you live in London, you're probably fine.

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

x post *@Pixxie7* - but without a lockdown, if there’s a major spike, how will we flatten the curve again? I think that’s what I don’t understand... will track and trace be enough in that scenario?

The majority of office workers are working from home and are continuing to do so even though restrictions are lifted. This will be a huge factor in a second wave being smaller than the first.

I agree Karen, the Nightingale hospitals could be useful as Covid treatment centres over the winter. Just saw this on another thread, rapid testing should help the NHS separate out COVID patients/asymptomatic carriers so that there are fewer nosocomial infections- www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-testing-hospital-covid-19-results-how-long-dnanudge-a9635226.html

The nightingales are only a little use, Wher do the doctors and nurses come from?
If we let it spike like it did before, a lockdown will happen or the country will go bust, but probably in a more violent way than under a controlled lockdown
If we lockdown quicker, it will be far shorter
Last time, the french were planning to stop ferries with food supplies coming to the Uk as our rates were so bad
So we need to avoid that at all costs.
Many more local lockdowns , increased testing , effective test and trace, use an app that already works stop faffing about building a "better" one
Hum. We need s government who does not believe that is you want something hard enough it will happen by magic

Yes the people working from home will make a big difference, but most are still out and about.

@Karenovirus

They can use all the redundant nightingale hospitals then. As proper fever hospitals. Stop mixing all the patients up with non infected and allowing it to spread.

It won't be as bad anyway. You're just seeing pockets where too few people were exposed and are now starting to be again. If you live in an area where it didn't really take off, be worried. If you live in London, you're probably fine.

Recent research is suggesting there isn't long term immunity for Covid. I think the research was saying declines in antibodies around 3 months.

So being from an area that got hit hard in the first wave is no guarantee of being safer if there was a second wave now.

Wfh helps a lot and other behaviour changes.

Each LA has the power to do local shut down now which is better. Whether they have enough extra funding is another thing. Without it and they’ll be closing many businesses.

We can't afford to pay for lockdown like last time so I don't think it will be the same. Maybe localised? It was never going to just disappear, which we have known since April if not much earlier.

How's Sweden's approach looking to you all still?

Sweden's death rate lower than ours ( not hard ) , bu5 higher than their neighbours, economy not doing better than their neighbours ( similar forecast to Norway , worse than Denmark ) , but under greater restrictions on travel to their neighbours

So they let more people die for no obvious financial gain.

Can't see another national lockdown but local ones yes.

I think for the sake of the economy we'll only be put in to local lockdowns from now on...

There will not be another national lockdown, it just won't happen. The country will go bankrupt. Localised ones if necessary but not national.

Well surely if there’s another mass outbreak (and potentially worse than last time god forbid, recent studies say Covid worse in cold weather) then there will have to be a national lockdown, right?

You mean the government will just let hundreds of thousands of people die ? Even BJ is saying it is an option - even if it is the ‘nuclear’ option as he calls it

I don’t know how we can fund another national lockdown, it is extreme. The costs are so high.

Well, I don't think the government is that interested in human lives so I don't think they'll care if people die. They wanted herd immunity at first.

People will wear masks with more grace when infections go up. The importance of not sending covid patients into care homes is now very clear. Businessess have worked out which jobs work well at home, which need to staff in part-time and which need full time staff, shops have set up their one way systems and screens, schools have been told to plan for good quality online learning to be available instantly, the governmeng have practiced local lockdowns and a lot of hospitals have quietly built new 30 - 60 bed covid wards which are just being finalised now.

There is no money to fund a second lock down. This isn't about wanting people to die or Tories being bastards (I'm not one btw) the stark reality is the government have thrown a staggering amount of money at the first lock down and don't have the funds to do this again.

If we're locked down without furlough then unemployment rate will be exponential.

The government aren’t alone re worry over economy. What has been funded this time is staggering. The costs are so high in many areas.