Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

no Tory government is going to ultimately put people's lives before the economy sadly.

How do you think the NHS gets paid for? Yes, that’s right, the ‘economy’. Do you think all those consultants are happy to work for free? Lmao.

We only had one shot at complete lockdown. Another isn’t feasible. We’ll have to do the best we can with the measures we have. The good news is that we are learning as we go.

Anyone remember austerity? the economy is intrinsically linked to people's lives. There has to be a balance.

@Karenovirus

You’re not wrong in that there will be another wave, it may be worse than last time (considerably) and there will have to be action taken if there is.

However, the chances of us going into another full blown lockdown are incredibly slim. They’re planning to reduce outbreaks with preventative measures and flatten those that do occur with local lockdowns.

CV has to now be weighed up risk vs reward
Yes lots of people may die from a huge second wave but equally lots of people will die if the economy completely collapses. MN is full out angry voices, wanting drastic measures put in place to protect lives from CV but somehow forgetting that lack of food, shelter, water, healthcare...etc will kill just as many if not more.
Not to mention the violence, rioting, looting and general crime that would occur if we went into a second lockdown, with no furlough scheme (because we couldn’t afford this one let alone another). It would be absolute anarchy.

Surely there’s another way...

Yes keep going with behaviour change, wfh, SD where possible. Use screens where possible. The last peak was pre-lockdown due to behaviour change.

Waves and local lockdowns but not spikes or national lockdowns. The vast majority of people are much better informed and more scared of covid than they were back in March, we have much more and quicker testing, care homes are better protected. Things we now take for granted like social distancing, masks and hand washing all make a difference. The nhs can manage a certain number of cases very easily.

The things I’m scared of are the nhs still not opening fully for normal business and the economy because of all the businesses and whole industries that are going to disappear. Pubs can’t survive as they are, public events and entertainment ditto. Very very scary few years ahead.

MN is full out angry voices, wanting drastic measures put in place to protect lives from CV but somehow forgetting that lack of food, shelter, water, healthcare...etc will kill just as many if not more.

Also the lack of awareness that in order for most to stay in their homes many had to continue working to facilitate this.

@Delta1

It’s a difficult balance but the economy is people’s lives

Well said. I wish more people understood this. There'll be local lockdowns. The rest will have to get on with life.

My DH has only recently been permitted to go back to work after 15 weeks with no pay and only JSA at £75 pw (taxable). There are approx 3M self employed who are not/have not been in receipt of any income since 24 March. If you were furloughed, you were one of the lucky ones. We/the country simply cannot afford to have another lockdown. It would bankrupt us/the country. Unfortunately that is the reality as unpalatable as it is.

They will try test and trace and then local lockdowns.

However, a lot of people are still in denial about the nature of a pandemic. If we get a big surge (and personally, I think we could avoid it) the cost (BOTH lives and financial) of not locking down is higher than the cost of locking down.

There is this idea that it is impossible to actually get substantially poorer; it isn’t. We can afford a lot of lockdowns before the cost of letting a virus rip us less than the cost of locking down.

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

So people are basically saying we will have to just cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy? Surely there’s another way...

well hopefully not all infections will lead to deaths. What other way do you suggest?

I am hoping for the testing and trace system to work, so we will have local spikes, but not national ones. I am crossing all my fingers! It is not possible finantially, I think the company I work for will not make it out of another one, but mostly I cannot bear the thought if getting that backwards, it is too much of a mental load. And at least locally, here there is very few new cases, and they have highlighted some spikes quickly, so I do keep my hope up.

Op, things have changed from March and a second lockdown can be avoided..

Most people now understand what the risks are. We know the symptoms, isolating is now accepted as sensible & necessary, masks are mostly accepted, social distancing is understood. If I had told my boss in early March that I was self -isolating for 14 days, he’d have fired me.
NHS better understands the disease, we have drugs that shorten hospital stays, deal with blood clots, they know how to minimise the use of ventilators.
Businesses have adapted, councils have powers to enforce local lockdowns for hotspots, can close beaches etc.

We may have a second wave but we’ve all spent 4 months learning how to deal with it.

And we can’t afford a second lockdown.

Yes, heading for a second wave but this time we will just have to get on with it otherwise there will be nothing left afterwards. We will just all have to do our best and use what we have learnt to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe and do what we can to help others.

This could have been avoided if more people in this country had taken the first lock down more seriously and had a smidgeon of common sense.

@larrygrylls exactly, those saying there is no money for a national lockdown it will destroy the economy fail to realise that Covid spreading unchecked throughout the country would cost the economy more in the long run. I agree that the support package from Rishi won't be as generous.

If the virus starts running rampant again we can't afford not to lockdown. If we don't the economy will collapse in an uncontrolled manner. This will mean it takes far longer to get back on our feet. Furlough may be less generous but it will still exist, it has to.

Funding pandemics is like funding wars, you turn on the money hose and worry about it on the other side.

@MarshaBradyo

Surely there’s another way...

Yes keep going with behaviour change, wfh, SD where possible. Use screens where possible. The last peak was pre-lockdown due to behaviour change.

Exactly. Masks will help massively. Most people still working from home and those not are SDing. We are in a very different place compared to February and I think numbers will increase but not like March/April numbers. We have opened up a lot already and there has been a slow slight but not statistically significant increase.

I think it will be fairly a fairly miserable Winter though and all the stuff that we normally look forward to will be cancelled. No Santa grottos, no iceskating, no Christmas light ceremonies etc.

those saying there is no money for a national lockdown it will destroy the economy fail to realise that Covid spreading unchecked throughout the country would cost the economy more in the long run

It won’t spread ‘unchecked’ though. There will be many measures in place to check it, just not as drastic as full lock down.

What I don’t understand is how people think we’ll pay for even very basic public services with tax receipts plummeting and borrowing at insane levels already?

The public sector is going to be knocked for six as it is, let alone with another lockdown in play.

What I don’t understand is how people think we’ll pay for even very basic public services with tax receipts plummeting and borrowing at insane levels already?

Yes, i'm confused too. Do we just borrow more & heap a load more debt onto the younger generations?

This could have been avoided if more people in this country had taken the first lock down more seriously and had a smidgeon of common sense.

I thought the evidence showed the vast majority complied with lockdown?

Do we just borrow more

If we’re even able to. Certainly the rates we’re getting at the minute cannot be sustained even in the very short term.

That was my understanding but wondered what the other posters suggest.

Imo furlough was generous to help aid lockdown but now if people have lost jobs, furlough is less etc then they are not necessarily going to comply.

I don't think a second wave is a certainty at all. I think there will be localised flare ups but we are in a hugely better position now that we were in March when we had pretty much no testing at all and no measures in place.

I'm also reasonably hopeful that the vaccine will be available for the most vulnerable this side of Christmas although I completely appreciate that we have to make plans without the vaccine being a consideration.

I think a second lockdown is unlikely, Leicester came back under control with fairly limited measures for a fairly short period of time. Things would have to go very wrong for the level of infection to be high enough to require nationwide lockdown for a long period again. It's not impossible but I think it's unlikely.

I dont disagree that taxes pay for public services (and i dont think there will be another lockdown) but i also dont think that you can have a pandemic without a lockdown and no ecomonic impact either so you need to make sure you are comparing pandemic economy v lockdown economy not lockdown ecomonmy v normal economy. I guess the government has to balance which is worse. If cases had continued to rise exponetially would people really have been going to the pub, cinema, cafes etc with no safety measures. Our school had 50% of it cohort coming in two weeks before schools closed as people were scared and people were ill. We had 70% in once the bubble thing was set up as people felt safer and werent ill.

How's Sweden's approach looking to you all still?

Well, they flattened the curve, in fact more than - have a look at this.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53498133

The WHO were being positive about this being a way forward as well...also Holland's approach is similar and they seem to be managing OK.

I think many of us don’t care anymore. We’ll just have to ride it out and hope for the best.