Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

For the UK, I think we will see possibly localised lockdowns or areas of concern, as we have already in some towns...so partial lockdowns but not a national one...in fact this is part of the strategy is it not?

Or possibly a closure of the last phase of measures across the country (so the most recent openings, such as nail bars, etc..) but think the former more likely as the economic impact would be too high across the country

So it might well vary a lot on where you live in the UK, and your local rates..

@kurtain we keep borrowing, or failing that print money.
The inflation will come down the line and be painful.

As a shielded person (until next week currently!) the thought of rejoining society was scary but I knew I had to do it at some stage - I live alone.

The thought of a second wave is terrifying. The thought that we're willing to let the virus run rampant for the sake of money is horrendous. Yes people die due to poverty and due to austerity, but both of those things are in the hands of the Govn to address. We are the 5th richest country in the world and despite what the media might tell you, austerity is a choice. Look at homelessness, that's always been "impossible to fix', too expensive etc and yet we managed to completely eradicate it within weeks when the pandemic started. It's a choice.

People worrying about tax receipts, if everyone is off ill perhaps on SSP, if we have more deaths than the last wave and more job cuts (which we're already seeing now) tax receipts are bound to reduce anyway - but let's let thousands of others die anyway?

I worry about a society that seems to have more and more dislike for each other.

so you need to make sure you are comparing pandemic economy v lockdown economy not lockdown ecomonmy v normal economy.

Of course. Though as we’ve seen risk appetite varies wildly.

Equally you can’t compare the impact of the first lockdown (very high compliance, due in part to very generous support) with the impact of a second when compliance will be much lower, (partly because of fatigue and partly because furlough cannot be replicated to the generous degree it was). Once people start to see the medium term effects on public services thus will get worse.

So a second lockdown may not even work very well to suppress the disease, especially if the support isn’t there.

It’s very much in the governments interest to make the measures we have at the minute work.

I think many of us don’t care anymore. We’ll just have to ride it out and hope for the best.

I sort of feel this way. I don't have the mental energy to deal with this any more. I've decided that I can only just about manage with my own family now and I am going to have to start putting us first whereas before I saw myself as fit and healthy and prepared to queue/ work in lockdown and take it on the chin if I got it. Now I am not prepared to do that. I'm mentally spent and physically worse off than I was 4 months ago.

I can’t see how we will avoid a second wave. The increase in cases in educational settings over June and July was clear-weekly cases were often higher than in care homes and that was with barely any pupils in. With schools open as usual, the transmission points will be high and very difficult to control.

Spain is in the situation they are because they have totally failed at track and trace. 75% of cases in Cataluna have no contacts traced at all.

That's what we really need to be tightening up on now.

we keep borrowing, or failing that print money.The inflation will come down the line and be painful.

So what happens then?

Fedup21

That’s interesting. Where did you find that information?

@fedup21

I can’t see how we will avoid a second wave. The increase in cases in educational settings over June and July was clear-weekly cases were often higher than in care homes and that was with barely any pupils in. With schools open as usual, the transmission points will be high and very difficult to control.

Where did you find these stats, @fedup21 ? I haven't heard this.

People worrying about tax receipts, if everyone is off ill perhaps on SSP, if we have more deaths than the last wave and more job cuts (which we're already seeing now) tax receipts are bound to reduce anyway - but let's let thousands of others die anyway?

There will be plenty of people who will not be affected badly by this disease and people who will want their lives to continue as close to ‘normal’ as possible.

Trust me, you need those people to be out there working and spending in as safe ways as possible. Otherwise your public services will be cut to the absolute bone.

I worry about a society that seems to have more and more dislike for each other.

I worry about a society that thinks it’s okay to pile debt, debt and more debt on the generation coming after it.

@fedup21

I can’t see how we will avoid a second wave. The increase in cases in educational settings over June and July was clear-weekly cases were often higher than in care homes and that was with barely any pupils in. With schools open as usual, the transmission points will be high and very difficult to control.

Where can I find that data, I try to keep up but this is the first time I've heard that. Is it on the ONS site?

People worrying about tax receipts, if everyone is off ill perhaps on SSP, if we have more deaths than the last wave and more job cuts (which we're already seeing now) tax receipts are bound to reduce anyway - but let's let thousands of others die anyway?

I don't think expressing concerns about the economy = happy for thousands to die.

A second wave isn’t an inevitability surely. It takes someone to have the virus and spread it. This happened before when we had no suppression measures in place...now with cases right down and things not back to normal (SD etc) I’d hope it could be avoided. There’s no way the government will pay for more national lockdown/furlough. Nor should they. Time to start living with the threat of the virus instead of hiding away in fear.

We wont national UK lockdown again that is certain - the 4 nations are on very different routes.

England certainly wont local lockdowns all the way part of the problem we have now is we nationally lockdown.

London should have been locked down earlier that it was. Other areas were locked down in a national lockdown way before they should have been

Italy and Germany are looking better because they have always have a smaller local approach

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-25/local-covid-19-lockdowns-in-germany-italy-portugal-offer-hope

I don't think the second wave will be as bad as the first. Think back to how things were at the end of Feb/early March when cases were first being reported - people were cramming into supermarkets to panic buy toilet roll, still cramming onto public transport to get to work, cramming in factories and offices like normal, cramming into pubs and nightclubs and football stadiums and horse-racing events and Stereophonic gigs. The virus spread like wildfire because the proximity of people allowed it too. Now, people are working from home, socially distancing (mostly), wearing face coverings and there are no gigs, sports events, etc etc. So yes, a second wave seems inevitable when you look at Spain, but on the same scale as before? I honestly don't think so.

Apparently in the UK a London lockdown was considered before the National one but was thought to be unfair.

Bear in mind the aim of the first lockdown was just to “protect the NHS”. Saving lives was just a “bonus” of that for the Tories, not the priority. Somewhere along the line it seems to have been transposed to “try and everyone getting it/dying” which I’m not sure is realistic. I think shielding and support for them might come back but not a full lockdown and people will make their own risk assessments ultimately.

You mean the government will just let hundreds of thousands of people die ?

But it’s not going to be the government killing them. It’s the virus.

Orangeblossom78 I live in London and we pretty much put ourselves into lockdown anyway! Despite what was reported in the media, the week before the lockdown was made official the city was like a ghost town – people who could were working from and taking their kids out of school. Shops were empty. My daughter's class of 30 had only five kids there on the last day. I think it's why we actually came through the worst quicker than areas like the north east.

the nhs has been predicting wave 2 for September since May.

No, they have been preparing for a second wave.

The increase in cases in educational settings over June and July was clear
I too am standing by for your source ...

People weren't all doing this during the peak of lockdown!

Except for the masks, they really were actually. Compliance was very high, despite this MN trait of thinking everyone is doing it wrong except them. Why else do you think cases fell?

Fed up we are all wanting to know your source.

The Nightingale Hospitals are exhibition centres, these are being reopened on 1st October and the hospital equipment stored on site, they're not being left set up ready to go, probably because there was never the staff to safely operate them anyway.