Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

Obvioulsy no one knows and we're all guessing although I don't really quite get the obsession with trying to predict the unknowable but I can't see another national lockdown it's simply unsustainable.

If people spent more time working with the new normal than endlessly going on about why they can't do it we'd be able have a relatively stable future.

I accept all this but what is the alternative to a national lockdown in the event the virus gets out of control again (so local lockdown/track and trace impossible)?

Maybe I’m missing something but this is what I don’t understand.

This is why they’re pushing the flu vaccine mask wearing and track and trace - government just can’t afford another total lockdown.
We will have local lockdowns rather than a national one

Somehow we have to learn to live with this

I can't see how it would get out of control again enough for a national lockdown. We know a lot more about the virus now than we did in March. People are generally more cautious and aware of symptoms. Local lockdowns yes, but not national.

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

Well surely if there’s another mass outbreak (and potentially worse than last time god forbid, recent studies say Covid worse in cold weather) then there will have to be a national lockdown, right?

You mean the government will just let hundreds of thousands of people die ? Even BJ is saying it is an option - even if it is the ‘nuclear’ option as he calls it

Of course Boris and Dom will let people die - that's what they have already done in care homes, and generally by not locking down sooner - even though we were one of the few countries that had the 'luxury' of seeing things play out in Italy and Spain etc. You honestly don't think Dominic Cumming cares about the nation as individual people?

I personally can't see there being a second national lockdown, the economy may never recover if there was and no Tory government is going to ultimately put people's lives before the economy sadly.

No need for a lockdown, all the Ikea flat pack hospitals are sat there with nobody in them.

Matey has delegated lockdown powers to LAs, so he won't have to do it again anyway.

There is not alternative to a national lockdown under those circumstances that will not do even more harm. Sweden has shown that we can not trade lives for a better economy.

Therefore we must avoid getting into that state.

Unfortunately we have a prime minister who is so keen to get back to normal that he would take us there. He wants civil servants in the office to show it's ok now and to buy coffees and lunch.

So keep your distance, 2 meters , avoid crowded indoor places, go shopping when it's quieter , wear that mask, work from home if you can. Some people will not have the intelligence to see how necessary this is, but hopefully enough will

If people follow the rules, keep their distance, wear their masks and avoid avoidable gatherings, no we won't have a second wave. We are in a very different situation now to March.

It's in your hands folks. Either you have to "get back to normal" with congregating with your friends in the pub, or you carry on seeing them at a distance outside. I know it will be difficult in the winter, but perhaps sales of weather-proof clothing will increase a lot!

no Tory government is going to ultimately put people's lives before the economy sadly.

It’s a difficult balance but the economy is people’s lives.

agree with others there will be no national lockdown.
there will be local mini lockdown.
the nhs has been predicting wave 2 for September since May.

There will be spikes for sure because obviously the virus hasn’t disappeared, and that will mean local lockdowns.
But if we wear our masks, people who work from home continue to do so, and we stay away from large crowds then we can do something to minimise the spread and the likelihood of lockdowns.
The problem being there are too many idiots and selfish people.

It’s a difficult balance but the economy is people’s lives

Well said. I wish more people understood this. There'll be local lockdowns. The rest will have to get on with life.

"If people follow the rules, keep their distance, wear their masks and avoid avoidable gatherings, no we won't have a second wave. We are in a very different situation now to March."

People weren't all doing this during the peak of lockdown! People are certainly not following the rules on social distancing and mixing households where I live.

@MarshaBradyo

no Tory government is going to ultimately put people's lives before the economy sadly.

It’s a difficult balance but the economy is people’s lives.

The government has to put the economy first, people need jobs and keep a roof over their heads. Redundancies are increasing at a hell of a rate and it's going to get far worse.

Locking down the country again will cause absolute hell for a far larger number of the population than this virus will kill.

So people are basically saying we will have to just cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy? Surely there’s another way...

Yes mass unemployment (even more than we are facing after furlough) would be devastating, and cost lives.

I’d be more worried about a government who didn’t balance it as part of the equation.

If infection rates get so high that you end up with loads of staff off work then lockdown may not be avoidable. For instance if there are not enough teachers in school for them to actually run properly. It may be necessary to lock down before we get to that point? A country with vast percentage of its working age off sick could be worse for the economy than a lockdown couldn’t it? Perhaps the new normal and living with the virus involves changing the way we live drastically.

The economy is people's lives...and people's lives are the economy. You kill off hundreds of thousands of people the economy will tank. Fear will stalk the streets. Food shortages will occur as lorry drivers will not be able to quarantine for 2 weeks in France if they deliver to the uk. Cancer treatment will be stalled for years due to lack of doctors and nurses to treat people ....

We have to avoid getting that way, and it's not beyond the wit of women

@IKEA888

agree with others there will be no national lockdown. there will be local mini lockdown. the nhs has been predicting wave 2 for September since May.

September is now less than 5 weeks ago, again with the proviso that no one knows, it's almost unimaginable that in that time we'd go from under 1000 infections per day and an R0 of 1 (high end of estimates) to tens of 1000s or more per day given all the measures we now have.

Unless something catastrophic happens that has got to be a tiny possibility surely.

I haven't seen anyone saying we will have to cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy?

If we want to have a health service to provide health care for covid then we need a fuctioning economy the two are not independent and yes clutch your pearls all you want but that includes pubs which pay a huge amount in tax every year. If someone can come up for a viable plan to fund public services without the taxes paid by the leisure and hospitality sector then I am all ears but I have yet to see one!

Hopefully not a national lockdown, but maybe regional ones.

"I haven't seen anyone saying we will have to cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy?"

That was @Hamandcheeseandpickle by the way.

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

So people are basically saying we will have to just cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy? Surely there’s another way...

Where has anyone said that?

Continued infections doesn't equal huge numbers of deaths, I think it's universally accepted that the virus isn't going to disappear overnight, rational people know that there will be continuing infections as we have now but death rates aren't increasing.

The “other way” is that we stick to SD etc. The news today is about reducing obesity to try and help, there are things we can do. No right thinking person is saying we give up and let everyone die, that's silly.

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

So people are basically saying we will have to just cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy? Surely there’s another way...

Yes, I'd say that's what has to happen.