Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

Anyone saying 'but my children went back to school' has failed no consider the total contrast between the conditions in school - and out of school - in June and September.

tbf it depends on the school

Is anyone doubting there won't be in a spike in Sept? I'm sure there will be I just don't think it will lead to national lockdown.

Agree that conditions in schools - and everywhere - will be markedly different in winter. So much more indoor activity, closed windows, shared air... lower immune systems, flu... there will be a spike it seems but I suppose we can only hope not another national lockdown and school closures.

Those who think the government can't shut everything down again, what do you think will happen in the event of a second wave which cannot be controlled with local lockdowns?
Do you think everyone will keep going about their business as normal? Or do you think they will start to panic as hospitals become overwhelmed and people they know start dying?
How will that help the economy?

Fwiw I think the spike will come closer to Christmas, exponential growth takes time to take hold and we have some fight back measures we didnt have before. I think schools won't tip the balance by themselves but christmas and new year will.
If we can get a vaccine to the most vulnerable we might be ok.

If hospitals become overwhelmed and transmission increases so that the virus starts to run rife through the population, wider lockdowns will have to be considered.

Kurtian,

I agree that if your children attend a school where class sizes have always been 15 and below, and where no children attend any before or after school activities in cross-year group / class groups, or have any playdates or meet-ups in each other's houses, or travel to school by anything other than on foot / bicycle or in individual private cars then the differences will be small.....

While I know that there are schools where numbers in class have been below 15, the mixing outside the class will definitely be different in September. It is not the spread in school that worries me so much, but the spread VIA school to the vulnerable in the community.

Where was this reported? I haven't heard anything about an increase in school settings

What possible reason would the government have to keep this one quiet?!

If I was the parent of a vulnerable child, I would want to know this information.

'So people are basically saying we will have to just cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy? Surely there’s another way'

If you remove 'huge', then yes we will. With vast majority of deaths in the very elderly, I'm afraid we do need to get used to covid being the cause of death for more old people, potentially in quite large numbers. Don't forget 1500 people die every day in the UK. Mostly the elderly. The economy is your and my and our kid's quality of life. Viruses exist and the government can't just STOP them or remove them completely. Medicine may be able to, in time. Until then we need to understand that covid will continue to be cause or contributor to deaths in this country. But that is not reason enough to inflict economic armageddon upon us all when 98+% of those infected will not die from it.

I anticipate that it will start with local school / pub / shop closures; then local lockdowns; then an accelerating programme of regional lockdowns; finally a national lockdown again once it vbecomes apparent that other countries have been through this cycle and have found national lockdowns the best option. We will ALWAYS be behind the curve, and so we will ALWAYS have a higher infection and death rate than comparable countries. This will mean that the economy which we are pretending we are protecting by not locking down will in fact be massively worse hit than elsewhere.

Whether there will be a second wave or not, I have no idea.

I suspect, the way forward will be localised lockdowns to tackle specific outbreaks. Boris is determined to get back to "normal" by Christmas because he knows the economy is goosed.

People are out and about more but in a different way to before lockdown. Social distancing is in place, some maybe aren't distancing but many are. Masks being worn -I have seen many wearing them outside and in places other than shops. More people continue to work from home etc. So hopefully, that will help to keep infections manageable.

Schools are going back and yes there is risk there. However,I work in a massive 11-18 secondary in the North West. Prior to lockdown, we didn't have any issues with coronavirus in our school. Not one. Some parents chose to keep their children home because of the risk which is fine but we had no cases. We have been open for vulnerable and key worker pupils from our school and others. Then Y10/12 were welcomed back. Again, no issues so hopefully that continues.

I think the government will do anything they can to avoid another national lockdown.

It’s not binary. It’s not ‘total lockdown’ or ‘local lockdown.’

We have to see what happens.

Hopefully local lockdowns will work. They worked in Leicester.

If not, then it’ll be national lockdown. But not for extended periods.

The initial lockdown was in the face of lack of ventilators, unknown spread, no tracing, no PPE and no social distancing. You couldn’t even buy hand sanitiser.

Presumably everyone can see things are different now. That’s not to say there couldnt theoretically be another large scale lockdown, just it’s much less likely.

Cantkeepawayforever but national lockdowns aren’t see as the best option look at Germany
Very few countries as looking at it as an option

@cantkeepawayforever I work in a school as do a few family members. Children may have been in bubbles at school but outside of school some are still very much mixing but at least outdoors.

Most London primaries won't involve public transport due to catchment but secondary will be an issue. However some teens are still very much mixing.

What's the alternative though? not have kids back in school?

Pumpkin,

I work in a school in an area badly affected early in the pandemic. At least 2 members of staff have had Covid. At least 1/6th of the families in my class have had Covid. All this was within the first couple of weeks of lockdown. Numbers in keyworker childcare were tiny for the first few weeks, so until well after the local spike had passed.

The North West was slightly later to be affected, so the lockdown would have been more likely to have protected the school community.

What's the alternative though? not have kids back in school?

Genuine infection control in and around school - money for hugely increased school transport to allow SD onboard; extra toilet blocks to avoid sharing; full-time cleaning; part-time attendance combined with online learning; visors and screens for staff; masks for older children; outdoor sinks.

Genuine infection control outside school, fully enforced.

Lots of people have changed their behaviour washing hands, limiting social interactions, etc. My dc returned to school & Ive spent time with family however my usual life of shopping, eating out & days out is on hold. And myself & my dc have socialised far less than usual, normally we would mix with others at least twice a week & that's ignoring activities such as swimming or football. It's the same for everyone I know so while it won't eliminate Covid it will reduce the spread.

Genuine infection control in and around school - money for hugely increased school transport to allow SD onboard; extra toilet blocks to avoid sharing; full-time cleaning; part-time attendance combined with online learning; visors and screens for staff; masks for older children; outdoor sinks.

I know a few schools putting in outdoor sinks. The transport one is trickier in terms of cost however I assume parents who are wfh more often could help with this. Online learning is only applicable to those of a certain age. Our school also picked up some PPE equipment from the LA but unsure how widespread that was.

Very few countries as looking at it as an option

At the moment, of course not. Once we have been through the cycle of school / workplace lockdowns, local lockdowns then regional lockdowns, it may well be that a national lockdown again becomes an inevitable 'least worst' option.

There will not be another UK wide lockdown. There will be local lockdowns but not a national one.

@cantkeepawayforever I fear you’re right, although badly affected countries (eg the US) aren’t having national lockdowns currently are they? But maybe they should be?

I must stress I don’t have any answers - I’m just worried and don’t see much detailed discussion of these future scenarios in the media.

Kurtain, the issue is cost - I work in an area where schools are amongst the poorest-funded in the country, and the guidance from the Government specifically says that no changes / adaptations that incur extra cost should be made......

@DownstairsMixUp

So many people on mumsnet seem to know loads of icu staff who have access to magical stats that predict the second wave 😂

There are a fair few that seem to know top virologists and epidemiologists that are working on covid too.

My only claim to knowing anyone remotely involved in this, is having had the misfortune to meet and have a conversation with Professor Lockdown (or is that Pantsdown) a couple of times.