Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

National lock down was only done so we didn't overwhelm the NHS nothing else. We have the nightingale wards, we know more about the virus than before, people are practising social distancing, (ok not always everyone 2m apart but definitely less contact overall than in March). People are more aware and self conscious than before. Any 2nd wave won't shouldnt overwhelm the NHS. We won't lockdown nationally again, possibly local lockdown though in certain areas spike. I think this is the best approach tbh, like PP said we can't afford national lockdown like before so local lockdowns mean the rest of the country is functioning somewhat.

Local lockdowns sound better but lockdown is lockdown for those in that area, which might be quite substantial once schools and universities (which were still hoping to do face to face teaching) start going back. I am expecting we will all go back Sept and be back at home by Oct.

@fedup21

I can’t see how we will avoid a second wave. The increase in cases in educational settings over June and July was clear-weekly cases were often higher than in care homes and that was with barely any pupils in. With schools open as usual, the transmission points will be high and very difficult to control.

Where was this reported? I haven't heard anything about an increase in school settings - I'm pretty sure it would've been headline news given all the hoo-ha about schools reopening.

We are surely grown up enough to recognise the government cannot he held responsible for all deaths as a result of a pandemic and in the future countless deaths due to climate change and probably a few more pandemics in our lifetime. They are just people. They don’t hold magic wands.

I think the plans to open schools in the current extremely unsafe manner is a dead cert for a massive spike. Gauaranteed.

Bubbles of 2000 who’ve travelled on public transport....

@CountessFrog

Fed up we are all wanting to know your source.

@fedup21 must be in possession of top secret information or mistaken surely, infection rates in schools being higher than in care homes would have been reported everywhere wouldn't it?

schoolsweek.co.uk/suspected-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools-rise-by-70/

@justanotherneighinparadise

We are surely grown up enough to recognise the government cannot he held responsible for all deaths as a result of a pandemic and in the future countless deaths due to climate change and probably a few more pandemics in our lifetime. They are just people. They don’t hold magic wands.

Exactly. Not to say that the government dealt with it well, they didn’t, but they can’t stop everyone getting ill or dying.

Even if we do get a second wave is there a chance it won’t be so bad as the first? The care home issue (hopefull)y) won’t happen again and in Scotland anyway that accounted for half of the deaths. Also that as our first wave was so bad there’s been an element of the virus running it’s course in a way it hasn’t been able to in countries that locked down earlier? Is that possible?

@MarshaBradyo

Surely there’s another way...

Yes keep going with behaviour change, wfh, SD where possible. Use screens where possible. The last peak was pre-lockdown due to behaviour change.

Sweden, in other words

It's the only realistic way forward. They knew it and have played the long game.

The alternative, elimination through total lockdown, was off the cards by mid March

We are just playing intellectual catch up with reality

I personally think we have to face an uncomfortable truth, ie, that the government will not shut the country down for a second time.

Rather, provided the NHS does not become overwhelmed, we will be living with social distancing measures at perhaps the level we have now, with a rise in cases, treated by the NHS.

People will have to take their chances. This doesn’t help if you are in a job where your chances are higher. With jobs thin on the ground, there will be plenty of people waiting in the wings to replace those people’s jobs.

The issue of teachers without PPE does seem to be an anomaly though.

There’s no way we can go down the same route as Spain, opening clubs.

No one reported about the case rises in schools, because at the moment it isn’t in anyone’s interest.

I think the government have tried to keep it as quiet as possible.

@justanotherneighinparadise

I think many of us don’t care anymore. We’ll just have to ride it out and hope for the best.

Totally agree with this. People have had a guts full of the whole thing to be honest. I don't think compliance would be so good the second time round and who could blame people.

Where was this reported? I haven't heard anything about an increase in school settings

My dc went back to school, lots of people I know did the same. No outbreak in our area of London.

No one reported about the case rises in schools, because at the moment it isn’t in anyone’s interest.

But infection rates & deaths have been going down haven't they?

The schools outbreaks are in the PHE weekly surveillance reports.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

They report the number of respiratory infection outbreaks (classed as 2 or more confirmed cases) and how many of those are confirmed as Covid. What they don't give is how many people are affected in each outbreak or how badly.

Schools opening in September, under the current guidelines, and after the amount of mixing / travelling being done this summer, does look to be a massive risk point. That isn't the fault of schools - the demand that schools open fully for all, full time, with no additional money (for cleaning, temporary toilet blocks, increased number of school buses, more teachers or temporary accommodation) is simply incompatible with good infection control in our already hugely over-crowded and under-resourced schools.

There will be another outbreak and it will be so much worse. I’ve been speaking with a few ICU specialists via my work and the stats/stories they have told me are a real eye opener for the 2nd wave.

I don’t think there will be a 2nd lockdown as the country can’t afford it however I will be imposing my own lockdown with me and the kids if necessary. The first hit didn’t worry me half as much as what’s to come.

CountessFrog I think it is the Government CANT shut everything down again. We nearly went bankrupt the first time round, there certainly is the money or resources to do it again. And ultimately it will cause a lot of long term damage anyway.

It shouldnt get to that stage though. Proper testing and mapping should show you the areas that need locking down. I have no doubt we are in for a winter of local lockdowns (including schools) but nothing national.

@TheLegendOfZelda I agree - I think people dont realise just how much Sweden did change their behaviour they just went for a longer term realistic approach that they could live with

[quote wagtailred]schoolsweek.co.uk/suspected-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools-rise-by-70/[/quote]
Thank you, I've read that three times but can't see where it says school infection numbers are higher than care homes. Have I just missed it?

I worry about a society that seems to have more and more dislike for each other.

It's not dislike for each other, but to be honest I'm not prepared to worry about other people and take them into account over the wellbeing of my family.

Keeping a roof over my family's heads is more important to me than random strangers.

12 confirmed cases in a week. In schools.

And how many people died as a result?

Because this is what it’s about. It’s not about cases, it’s about the ability to manage those cases and prevent excess deaths.

We will see cases in schools. We can’t close the entire education system for it. We need to isolate the cases and deal with them.

Teachers need PPE like anyone else in a public facing role, if they wish. I’m not a teacher btw.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/901803/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_29_FINAL.pdf

It’s in the weekly surveillance reports.

@PleasantVille - you need to look at the PHE report for that week. I think it had a link in the article but i dont really remember. It was the only outlet i remember reporting the increase.

I can’t see how there won’t be a spike. Schools are just melting pots. They should have been sorted straight away after the NHS with a lot of government help. But they weren’t.

No masks for staff or children despite increasing evidence of how they minimise the spread.

Anyone saying 'but my children went back to school' has failed no consider the total contrast between the conditions in school - and out of school - in June and September.

June: a maximum of 3/7 years back, in primary, maximum of 15 per class so typically half numbers or less overall. Strict 'bubbling', significant infection control still in place in the community - no playgrounds, children's clubs / activities, sports teams, swimming pools. Summer, so windows open, much teaching outside.

September: Everyone in school. 30+ per class. Strict bubbling impossible due to staffing, shared spaces such as toilets. Virtually no infection control in the community, with children also mingling in 'cross bubble' groups at after school care, children's clubs,. swimming pools etc etc.

In secondary the contrast is even greater:

June: Maximum of 1/4 of 2 out of 7 year groups in school, so 1/14th of school in at any time. Very small groups, with social distancing still enforced. Limited movement of teachers across groups. Very little school transport, and any that there is very empty.

September: Everyone in school, large groups, significant crowding in corridors, no social distancing, teachers moving across year groups and classes for every lesson. Crowded school transport, mixing pupils from all years.

I’m interested to know what your ITU contacts are saying, mixitupalot.

I’m married to an ITU consultant and he knows nothing more than any of us here.