Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@ChristmasinJune
Look at the local authorities’ twitter feeds.
Re Liverpoool and Calderdale there are BBC articles about it.

[quote Frazzled2207]@ChristmasinJune
Look at the local authorities’ twitter feeds.
Re Liverpoool and Calderdale there are BBC articles about it.[/quote]
Will have a look, thanks

@IceCreamSummer20

And if I had been on a crowded train I'm not sure how the guys at Test and Trace would have more of a clue of who they were than I did. They won’t know - without the APP, which has spectacularly failed.

We should just borrow Ireland’s app - which is basic but hopefully works (although there is no guarantee yet that it does, as it hasn’t been properly evaluated yet)

Germany's app is working as far as I know and they have made it open source. There's no reason why we couldn't have an app if the government wanted one!

Yes, Germany's App is working

Early on, the German Health Ministry reported that some Android operating systems blocked the app from running in the background in order to save power - which they do with many Apps

That issue was fixed in an update and the App is running OK now on all types of Smart phones afaik.

It does look like the majority of contacts are still being found by public health officers, not the call centres

The public money for these contracts - fast tracked without the normal purchasing checks - would have been much better invested in a few more professionals

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/englands-contact-tracers-making-handful-of-calls-a-month

Data seen by the Guardian provided by an employee at the company Intelling, hired through outsourcing firm Serco,
appears to show the scale of inactivity among employees,

with 471 agents making just 135 calls in two days – around 0.14 calls per agent per day.

This figure includes calls to incorrect numbers, voicemails, or multiple calls made to the same individual.

One tracer working at the company said that one individual had been called by tracers 20 times.
Serco said they have no record of someone being contacted 20 times and that it was better to have too much capacity in terms of staff than too little.

Another tracer for a company contracted through Serco said
they had been working for two and a half months and made just four calls,
with the last one over a month ago and two that went to voicemail.

She said she had seen a spreadsheet showing around 15 calls a day were being made by a team of over 55 people.
Some of her colleagues had still not made a single call

The risks of travelling by train - Oddly this popped up on South Today last night, but I haven't seen it anywhere else. Studies seem to show that transmission on trains is really low. Caveat is that these studies have been done by RSSB and Deutsche Bahn, who obviously both have an interest in us getting back on a train, but interesting if true.

In summary chances less than 1 in 11,000 of catching Covid on a train (and without face coverings), and in Germany no single case has been tracked and traced back to a train journey.

www.rssb.co.uk/Insights-and-News/News/Innovative-data-methods-for-passenger-safety-during-the-Covid-19-outbreak

www.researchgate.net/publication/342353367_Preliminary_Implications_of_COVID-19_on_Long-_Distance_Traffic_of_Deutsche_Bahn

NEW Thread 14:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3987534-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-14?watched=1

Interesting papers on trains

I'd read before that the London Tube didn't seem to be the infection danger that was feared
However, all depends on high % of mask-wearing, frequent cleaning, testing of transport workers etc
Without very high compliance, the situation could change

Masks / face coverings have been compulsory in Germany since April for all public transport, stations, bus stops etc plus taxis

• I thought in the Uk too

Being based on 0.05% infection maps to 1 in 11,000 risk per hour journey, so at 2% infection (March in London, conservative estimate) that's 1 in 275. It's based on a 1 hour journey, but a transport worker might be present for 45 hours between their own travel to/from work as well as shifts. So that's a 1 in 6 chance of infection; within 6 weeks every transport worker is infected. That's pretty much what happened anyway.

Also bear in mind that many commuters have longer 1.5 hour journeys, so that's actually 3 hours per day, on normal times being exposed to say 125/ carriage (1200 capacity, 8 carriages) and maybe 6 exposure groups with changes of train or passengers not 2 exchanges, so 9* higher for commuters at 1 in 1222, 5 days a week... Even at 0.05 that's a lot of infections.

Realistically, I think if the train/tube were a real problem, London would still be having lots of outbreaks - tube usage is still down at about 25/30% of normal, but that's still thousands of people a day.

Masks have been compulsory on public transport in the UK from 15 June.

Masks make a big difference, as well as much lower current infection rates across London, but I think the effect of normal crowding versus lots of services with space is also huge. Being physically squashed together breathing each other's air logically must have an impact. I'm not sure it's helpful for people to get too comfortable again with public transport, because when the over-crowding comes back so will lots of other bugs.

Bear in mind that tube usage dropped to 4% for much of lockdown, that 25-30% is now.
These are the daily usage stats (I trotted off to get the actual numbers because I'm on the sensible person thread): www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.

[quote MRex]Bear in mind that tube usage dropped to 4% for much of lockdown, that 25-30% is now.
These are the daily usage stats (I trotted off to get the actual numbers because I'm on the sensible person thread): www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.[/quote]
Yes - I was assuming the data was trying to address the issue as it is now, to attract people back (though of course that increases the risk in itself, as more people on a train!!)

I've just noticed the 1/11000 is based on 44 people in a train carriage too (swapping 22 of them half way). Which may be realistic right now, but....

It's a slightly self defeating argument isn't it - trains are really quiet now so they are quite safe, so travel more - making trains busier...! Unless they are really going in enforce strict limits per carriage.

My hypothesis is that London trains and tube were a real problem back in late Feb - first half of March, given lack of ventilation and massive overcrowding in carriages.

The situation now is very different. I travel to the office a couple of times a week and usually have no problem keeping a 1m distance from other passengers (2m would be a challenge, though!). Pretty much everyone wears masks which must also be making a difference.

Exactly @PatriciaHolm, it's a catch-22. They can't enforce limits per carriage, there simply aren't enough trains - and never have been. Londoners don't hang about with their faces into each other's armpits for fun, it's because there's no space. Depending on the tube line, normal trains were full from 7am-10am but really over-full from 7.45-9.15 am, full from 5-8pm but over-full from 6-7.30pm. By over-full, I mean that even with everyone squashing in some have to wait for the next train. A working day can only flex so far.

What about ventilation, Wintertravel? Has anything been/can anything be done?

Air con with fresh air circulating, effective virus filters ?

What about ventilation, Wintertravel? Has anything been/can anything be done?

Not really... Windows in trains are all open but that's about it. However, because there are much fewer people, the air does not feel too stuffy.

Air con with fresh air circulating, effective virus filters ?

Yeah but I am afraid installing them on London trains / tube might take longer than developing COVID vaccine.

The air con in our office has been upgraded and is apparently "COVID secure".

On tubes, Victoria line has air con, central line and bakerloo have no fresh air at the best of times, district/circle/met spend lots of time passing through actual fresh air... I wonder if there is any provable difference between the lines for infections.

@wintertravel1980

Air con with fresh air circulating, effective virus filters ?

Yeah but I am afraid installing them on London trains / tube might take longer than developing COVID vaccine.

The air con in our office has been upgraded and is apparently "COVID secure".

.... Yes, the logistics seemed impractical to me too !

I was more thinking of services which might already have this
e.g. some intercity trains across Europe, incl UK

@wintertravel1980 **installing them on London trains / tube might take longer than developing COVID vaccine

Ha! Central line is to get aircon in 2030, not long now.

I had thought that one of the reasons London and New York fared so badly early on (as opposed to say, a large city like LA where more commute by car) was precisely because of vast numbers using the underground trains. As wintertravel says, at 25% capacity, and with journeys likely to be spread more evenly through the day, the tube is very, very different to the usual morning peak hour crush, which is enough to make your average nightclub dance floor look positively spacious and safe!