Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@bigchocfrenzy the Guardian reported during the week that track and trace were not picking up on outbreaks in Lancashire and that the council's public health officials added no way to contact track and trace.

So the Gov is paying for track and trace but they are not picking up all cases and, where they do pick up the case. they aren't getting in touch with enough of the contacts. To try and prevent lockdown the council is doubling its' own team so effectively we are paying twice for track and trace due to the inept national programme.

"The national helpline, billed as “world-beating” by the prime minister, has a team of 25,000 call handlers, but it is missing cases. The engineering firm in Pendle appears not to have been contacted by contact tracers or by PHE, for example. Lancashire is doubling its infection prevention team so that it can fill the gaps."

"In theory, the national helpline has enough staff for 400 call handlers to be focused just on Lancashire, but the county has no means of contacting them. “We would love to know who they are so we can get in touch,” says Karunanithi (the Lancashire county council’s public health director) , “What we really need is much more joined up working between the levels.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/15/englands-covid-19-frontlines-the-race-to-prevent-local-lockdowns?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

I once worked in a call centre run by the company named in the BBC Scotland article linked above, and it was the filthiest place I've ever been in. Excrement smeared on the toilet walls and doors, mice eating food left in drawers...I'd be stunned if there was sufficient SD and hygiene measures being taken.

Even if you say it is 50 families of 5 each, it is still a good sized hall.
At work our biggest room normally seats 270, at 2m you are looking at around 50 maximum, assuming no one needs to move once seated, and you use every bit of space. Realistically 30 is probably your maximum-and that's 30 individuals not 30 families.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

Excellent news on a positive treatment

Excellent indeed, but we need larger trials asap to check this

More bad news for test and trace!

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-government-admits-its-test-and-trace-programme-is-unlawful-12032136

(Misread the link above as "Government admits its test and trace programme is awful"......)

Last night we learnt that one of the T&T callcentres, in Lanark, has its own outbreak, at least 7 have tested positive. Training exercise, anyone?!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53465160

The company are obliged to release the preliminary results because they are market sensitive. In a previous report they said that doses for the next stage trials have already been manufactured. They are doing a press conference at 12.30. Press release is here

Sorry for the ignorance. But are the links showing the real figures so to speak. I want to see real figures not media or government ones and unsure where to find them? Thanks

@cathyandclare

The company are obliged to release the preliminary results because they are market sensitive. In a previous report they said that doses for the next stage trials have already been manufactured. They are doing a press conference at 12.30. Press release is here

Amazing. I read about this a while ago before the trial started and they had high hopes. They were hoping over 60s and vulnerable people would be prescribed a nebuliser with a positive test result. Positive news

Checking in, thank you for the new thread.

Showing clearly that recent PHE over-counting is dwarfed by previous over-counting

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Groupp*

https://c8930375-0dbb-4319-ae2f-025f70d4b441.filesusr.com/ugd/ab45f7ed709364eaf741e9ae1aed450de5b962.pdff__
_
Summary_
In this bulletin we note the recent news about the unreliability of daily COVID-19 death figures in England1,
and re-state our belief that the metric of excess deaths is the most reliable way of gauging the pandemic’s impact.

Hence, nothing has changed – it remains the case that over 60,000 have (very likely) died from COVID-19.

We have analysed the difference between ONS and PHE-reported deaths, tracing the growing difference over time.

Although the figures are different, the total erroneous reporting to date changes nothing.

However, although the ‘quantitative’ aspect is almost immaterial, we are concerned that the ‘qualitative’ aspect – of reduced public trust in the numbers, or Government advice – may have unwarranted consequences.

oops, Shouldn't type while making coffee !

Showing clearly that recent PHE over-counting is dwarfed by previous UNDER-counting^

Well there were 3000 at a rave near us on Saturday night at an old airfield , with no social distancing visible from the videos, the police were unable to close it down as the partygoers were all off their faces, and it would have been more dangerous to let them disperse via the roads in the dark.

Does anyone know why Spain's figures haven't updated on the Worldometers site recently?

@PurpleCalm

Does anyone know why Spain's figures haven't updated on the Worldometers site recently?

I'm looking now and they seem to be pretty much up to date? if you are looking at the deaths graph, it looks like nothing has been added because the numbers are so small.

The reliability of the data is another issue ;-)

Hasn't updated on my view since 17th July.

I think some places don't release data every day anymore. At one stage Spain were adding cases weekly or they may update today after the weekend.

The undercounting clearly dwarfs the overcounting if all you're interested in is the total number of deaths. But if you're interested in current rates, or the rate of decline then the recent under counting does matter in its own right

Does anyone have insight into why figures on the Zoe app website are so different to official messaging that virus infection levels are stable? In the last 10 days I’ve seen the number predicted to have symptomatic covid increase from 23,000 to 28,000 which seems quite a jump.

Checking in

Cat, it includes symptoms too?

@PurpleCalm

Hasn't updated on my view since 17th July.

Spain seem to have stopped updating over weekends, that's the latest data on the Health Ministry site. Should be an update today.

Thanks :)