Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

This is the admissions data for Wales, trying to understand the criteria for the officially released figures:

public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Hospitaladmissions

You beat me to it Patricia!

By wrong I mean misleading - it's clearly showing far more admissions than it should to be comparable; it should be showing the data from the Welsh dashboard to make more sense I think.

Agree Patricia that there is something really odd about the Wales admission data. For some days their numbers are comparable to those for the whole of England, which makes no sense

I see others have mentioned this already, but it is high time PHE sorted out their issues with the reporting of deaths. As noted above, ONS analysis shows 231 Covid deaths for the week ending 24/7, so on average 33 a day, 63.5%of which are in hospital. I calculate PHE reported deaths for that week were 444, on average 63 a day, so nearly double the ONS figure and highly misleading.

Incidentally, with hospital deaths now averaging close to 10 a day, this would suggest the current average rate is less than 20 a day, rather than the over 60 a day still being reported by PHE.

Just to add in relation to excess deaths, as COVID is an accelerator of mortality, deaths in the last couple of months are missing a significant number of people who died with COVID in March/April/May and would ‘usually’ have died in June/July.

No idea how many that would be, but care home residents have a median stay of 2 years or so, so it would be maybe 10% of the care home Covid deaths (more actually as non-Covid deaths in March were very high, when there was no testing even in care homes).

No deaths in Scotland or NI for over 2 weeks

ONS - week ending July 24:

In most regions of England & Wales, total deaths from all causes were slightly below average

Below:
0.2% Wales
1.1 % NW England
2.4% SW England
3.2% SE England
3.5% E England
6.1% London
8.0% Yorkshire & Humber

Above:
2.7% NE England
5.2% W Midlands
5.8% E Midlands

670 cases UK today. A drop but Tuesdays do tend to be (previous 4 Tuesdays have been 581, 445, 398, 581).

Still, I'll take it ;-)

Not on the dashboard yet so no detail as to where. P2 testing down a bit but again it always seems to be on Tuesdays - probably a weekend reporting thing.

Has anyone seen the overall deaths yet today? I’ve seen hospital deaths and they look low. Tuesdays are generally though aren’t they?

6 for England hospitals.

TBH, the PHE number is so irrelevant it can be ignored.

I know but for some reason I can’t help but be intrigued every day and use it as some sort of benchmark. Even though I know it’s crap!

Could someone tell me where the numbers are being published today. The usual desktop says it is being decommissioned today. Will they just replace it with a new one or is there a new site. Thanks

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ this will become the new one

FurForksSake Thank you

Wales' hotspot is currently Betsi Cadwalader Health Board in N Wales, specifically, Wrexham Maelor Hospital. Transmission within the hospital has been a concern.
In total, since March, deaths per 100,000 have been highest in the Cwm Taf Health Board, which covers the S Wales valleys area. The valleys are generally where the most economically disadvantaged and sickest folks in Wales have lived for many decades. Not far behind are places like Grangetown in Cardiff and those wards in Newport with high BAME populations. Swansea, mid and west Wales got away fairly lightly.

Yes it's interesting- some of the early cases were skiers returning to the Swansea area but the outbreak seems to have been well contained.

The hospitals in that health board are generally low-rated, so I wonder whether the hospital-based transmission is a reflection of ongoing poor practice / equipment, as well as deprivation in communities such as the coastal strip and Wrexham itself.

(Been in Special Measures for 5 years, and things like food hygiene etc have also been picked up over those years, so it is not hard to imagine that infection controls may not be the best)

Hi - has anyone figured out where we can download the detailed COVID daily case file in the csv format? Thanks:).

@wintertravel1980

Hi - has anyone figured out where we can download the detailed COVID daily case file in the csv format? Thanks:).

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

Click on the downwards arrow at the top right of the graph.

I can't get the localisation options to work at the moment though, I suspect it's something to do with the changes today to it being the main site not the beta.....

...and now it's working...!

89 deaths in the UK reported today according to the BBC. These figures make no sense at all!

Figures don't add up to nation breakdown today

And also can't look at local authority date

The site is not having a good day....

Study demonstrating T cell immunity to Covid 19 in unexposed individuals is from common cold coronavirus

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871.full

BBC Wales Today reported just now that there is very little evidence of community transmission in the Wrexham area. Also that transmission within the hospital has been brought under control.
Control of hotspots in Wales seems to be effective thus far (cf also various meat factories and Anglesey last month).
WG management of the crisis has generally been steady and reassuring. We have come out of lockdown later than the rest of the UK, for example. Still a long way to go though e.g. Utterly baffling there is still no effective test, track and trace system in place for a country of only 3 million

on the staging website, I am keeping a close eye on the figures for the greater manchester boroughs. Since the beginning of AUuust they are all really low eg 0/1/2/3 even in Rochdale which is weird. Whereas last week boroughs have 20-30+. Can't believe that's the true picture. Does that mean that many people that would have tested positive in Rochdale since the beginning of August would have not yet been counted in the daily positive figures? Or do they come up in the daily figures first then get 'allocated' to a local authority later? Doesn't seem to add up at all.