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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 19/07/2020 19:39

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
60
PatriciaHolm · 04/08/2020 20:48

@Fairineouf

Does anyone know if Spain has had a 'catch-up' day today? Cases are up by 5760 and deaths by 26 - that's quite a big leap from their usual reporting.
Those cases include tests for previous infection using Antibody tests as well as for current infection; current cases announced today is 1,178.

5 in the Balearics and 8 in the Canaries.

65% in Madrid, Catalunya and Aragon still.

www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_177_COVID-19.pdf

OP posts:
Fairineouf · 04/08/2020 20:51

Thanks PatriciaHolm!

What a knowledgeable lot you are on this thread Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 04/08/2020 21:36

Australia

Authorities getting very tough:

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-france-says-second-wave-highly-likely-in-autumn-and-winter/a-54426925

Australian Victoria State Premier Daniel Andrews said 500 military personnel will be deployed to the country's second-most populated state to bolster COVID-19 self-isolation orders,
with anyone found in breach of those measures facing new fines of nearly A$5,000 ($3,559.00, €3,000).
The only exemption will be for urgent medical care.

"There is literally no reason for you to leave your home and if you were to leave your home and not be found there, you will have a very difficult time convincing Victoria police that you have a lawful reason,"
....
Candice Wyattt@CandiceWyatt10* (10 news)

BREAKING: The Chief Comm says there’s a “growing cohort” of people who believe they’re above the law and don’t have to follow Stage 4 rules.

Police are smashing windows at roadblocks and dragging them out of their cars.

IceCreamSummer20 · 04/08/2020 23:08

@boys3

Having downloaded the latest full CSV file I think it fair to say PHE (it is their website, if not apologies) did not trouble themselves with any basic testing before release

At least 100 LAs in England not appearing either on the dashboard or the full download file option.

Seriously should we ask MNHQ to get someone from PHE for a live chat about data? they might learn something I mean we might learn something

Invite PHE and the independent SAGE and / or a couple of local Directors of Public Health. It is local Directors who have had generally years of infection control experience and were not happy that their control was taken away and out into a national body, the PHE, which was not seen as effective. Which I believe has born out they are weak in their response to Covid19.
boys3 · 04/08/2020 23:52

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ now contains all English LAs, so the 90+ missing earlier appear to have been found. Phew!

@wintertravel1980 the full data set download at coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#legacy-csv-downloads now also contains every English LA when I've just downloaded and run a pivot.

The UTLA and LTLA mix is still something of a mystery. I'd assume LTLAs should be just district councils, and then UTLAs the counties, unitaries, mets and LBs; however as previous unitaries, mets and LBs continue to be listed in both.

boys3 · 04/08/2020 23:57

@IceCreamSummer20 I absolutely agree. Cutting out the knowledge and experience from the local DoPHs and their teams was an act of folly. They seem to be getting data now - whether its detail and timeliness is yet fit for purpose I can't say - however centralised track and trace remains a problem.

Firefliess · 05/08/2020 04:31

@boys3 Looks like some local authorities have taken things into their own hands with track and trace

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/04/local-authority-blackburn-with-darwen-sets-up-test-trace-system-english-scheme-covid

BigChocFrenzy · 05/08/2020 08:31

Centralisation in Britain of public health and of testing has not worked well

Also public service cuts:
even 10 years ago there were 10,000 public health officers, but during reorganisation and creation of PHE, this was cut to only a few hundred.

The UK decided in March to abandon t&t, because they only had the capacity to track about 50 cases
Since resuming t&t this summer, it has been the small number of professional public health officers who have successfully tracked most of the contacts found,
not the thousands of barely trained new staff at call centres, who have been given little work.

A 29 June government report said 114,000 people had been contacted by that date:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53220180

"But the vast majority of these were found by existing public health teams.

An investigation by BBC Panorama has discovered that 98,000 of the contacts were traced by only 870 public health officials.

The local officials work for Public Health England and are experts in contact tracing.
They are responsible for managing more complex cases, like outbreaks in schools and care homes, which often reveal larger numbers of contacts.

At the start of the coronavirus outbreak, a report written by Public Health England for the government's SAGE group of advisers called for a ten-fold increase in contact tracing capacity.
Public Health England has told Panorama that the number of public health officials has only been increased from 380 to 870."

In Germany, track & trace has always been a local responsibility, but Germany is very decentralised:

the 16 states have considerable autonomy and at the level below there are 401 administrative districts
There are tens of thousands of public health officers, who know their own patch and residents
The network of 300 test labs report data locally as well as automatically notifying the RKI (federal public health authority)

This local knowledge has been a big factor in why track & trace worked so well here from the start.
There is an App running, but this is just an extra tool for the the local officers
They phone, text, Email or visit contacts - the personal touch plus legal powers makes them very effective

Firefliess · 05/08/2020 10:08

That's shocking figures from track and trace @Bigchoc. I also read somewhere via a FOI request from one of the newspapers (guardian I think) that a large majority of the people they had successfully "traced" were in fact household members of cases. Whilst it might be helpful to have someone official tell you you must isolate, it hardly counts as tracing "people who would otherwise never have known they were at risk" as has been claimed

Frazzled2207 · 05/08/2020 10:42

indeed @ Firefliess. It seems a complete waste of time to me. If I tested positive I would know exactly who I had been in contact with and would speak to them directly before any Test & Trace person tracked them down.
And if I had been on a crowded train I'm not sure how the guys at Test and Trace would have more of a clue of who they were than I did.
What IS definitely needed is door knocking etc. But of course only the local teams can do that. What a farce.

Frazzled2207 · 05/08/2020 10:42

and to think that that would count as a successful trace if they spoke to my own husband.....!

IceCreamSummer20 · 05/08/2020 11:05

[quote boys3]@IceCreamSummer20 I absolutely agree. Cutting out the knowledge and experience from the local DoPHs and their teams was an act of folly. They seem to be getting data now - whether its detail and timeliness is yet fit for purpose I can't say - however centralised track and trace remains a problem.[/quote]
Yes did you hear one Public Health Team are setting up their own contact tracing to plug the gaps from the ineffective privatized shambles that is the nationalized one?

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sandwell-council-sets-up-own-contact-tracing-system-amid-anger-with-governments-version-12038597

IceCreamSummer20 · 05/08/2020 11:06

@Firefliess oh sorry just seen you have noticed the same - that is at least two councils!

IceCreamSummer20 · 05/08/2020 11:10

And if I had been on a crowded train I'm not sure how the guys at Test and Trace would have more of a clue of who they were than I did. They won’t know - without the APP, which has spectacularly failed. Sad

We should just borrow Ireland’s app - which is basic but hopefully works (although there is no guarantee yet that it does, as it hasn’t been properly evaluated yet)

Frazzled2207 · 05/08/2020 11:12

@IceCreamSummer20 at least 4 councils in the NW are doing it
Liverpool
Preston
Calderdale
Blackburn
I think many others will follow suit

IceCreamSummer20 · 05/08/2020 11:26

Good, I’m glad they are taking action! It makes me a bit sick to think of all the money poured into the APP and the National contact tracing which hasn’t worked. However it is reassuring to know that local public health teams are now just getting on with it. I think most public health teams are very good. Phew!

MRex · 05/08/2020 11:27

I think they all have to if PHE designates them as a certain risk status? There was a page explaining it that had all the local authority responsibilities.

Frazzled2207 · 05/08/2020 11:35

@MRex quite possibly though the media round here is suggesting that the above authorities are being very proactive

Catapultme · 05/08/2020 11:46

Quite interesting earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147066/could-covid-19-have-seasons?src=ve

Firefliess · 05/08/2020 12:16

The local authority action seems to be all focused on the areas with the highest rates. But if there's only a few cases a week in an area (as there are in many) it ought to be well within the capability of any LA to speak to all those half dozen people a week and find all their contacts. As well as a bit of backwards tracing, if they have any idea where they caught it from. That would help stop future hotspots ever happening

JellyBabiesSaveLives · 05/08/2020 12:18

”A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “In just eight weeks NHS test and trace has ... contacted more than 218,000 people ...We have over 27,000 contact tracers in place”www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/englands-contact-tracers-making-handful-of-calls-a-month

So each contact tracer has contacted an average of 1 person a week! And if most of those are family members!

ChristmasinJune · 05/08/2020 12:29

[quote Frazzled2207]@IceCreamSummer20 at least 4 councils in the NW are doing it
Liverpool
Preston
Calderdale
Blackburn
I think many others will follow suit[/quote]
Have you got some sort of article or source that you can post for this please? I'm in one of these areas and have never heard of anything beyond the National scheme. Just wondering if there's something I should be doing? (Still waiting for the app!!)

ChristmasinJune · 05/08/2020 12:31

@JellyBabiesSaveLives

”A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “In just eight weeks NHS test and trace has ... contacted more than 218,000 people ...We have over 27,000 contact tracers in place”www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/englands-contact-tracers-making-handful-of-calls-a-month

So each contact tracer has contacted an average of 1 person a week! And if most of those are family members!

My niece has a job as a contract tracer, she's been doing it for over a month now and has had no cases at all..... despite the fact that she lives in one of the "hot spots" under new restrictions.
BigChocFrenzy · 05/08/2020 12:42

Exciting new tech in testing, but there needs to be more data about using them:

Rapid swab tests, called LamPORE, claimed to be able to process up to 15,000 swabs per day

  • no proof of this though

DnaNudge machines for saliva testing are lab-free,
but can only process 15 samples per day

Climical researchers have written that there is no publicly available data about the accuracy of these tests,
i.e. what % of false negatives or indeed false positives.

There needs to be a "gold standard" study to evaluate accuracy,
before public health officials can decide how / whether to base decisions about e.g. closures on them

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/05/government-buying-90-minute-covid-tests-without-evidence-they-work

MRex · 05/08/2020 12:48

We have say 4500 cases per week, and most people aren't socialising a lot, so at that rate each contact tracer can get a whole person plus their contacts every 6 weeks. That's about a person per week. They need to be trained and available for autumn and any bad turn off events, but I don't see who they're meant to contact with such low cases to go around?

I did a thread on contact tracing out of interest and a lot of mumsnetters said they'd refuse to give their details, it was confusing what some people's reasons were, but plenty of them out there. No phone numbers is a bigger issue than anticipated, so door knocking seems a good addition.