Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Anyone know why Wales hospital admissions are always so much higher proportionally? Do they have a lower threshold for admitting people?

Can someone clarify also the "tests processed" number. There appears to be some clarification on this on the government site but it is still not clear, to me, does this now equate to the number of people?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-data-methodology/covid-19-testing-data-methodology-note
"We have also started publishing an ‘all tests processed’ measure, which counts all tests that have remained within the control of the programme (and were counted at the time of when it was processed in labs) and those that have been sent out and subsequently returned to be processed in a lab.

The ‘all tests processed’ measure is lower than ‘all tests made available’ for a number of reasons, including:

tests sent out may take longer to return and be processed through a lab
some tests do not get returned at all, for example if they are spoilt
some tests are returned without the individual having registered the test kit to themselves and cannot be processed

We’re always working on reducing the prevalence of these last 2 issues."

So it's a new number to exclude tests that were not sent back or buggered up, it's only tests where a result was obtained. Originally the government counted all test kits they sent to keep check on the capacity for lots of testing; now they actually have loads of capacity that doesn't matter so the focus has switched to checking how many tests have been run.

It's worth noting I've seen some people say nose and throat swab were counted separately in UK, which I hadn't checked, but this page is clear that they are counted together.

I read that @ mrex and yes it clarified that two nose swabs are no counted as one and i understand why it is lower than the the capacity. It also appears to clear up the the tests in the post problem. Is this figure now then effictively people tested? ( i understand people may have been tested more than once but feel this would be a meaningful figure.)

I''ve wondered about the Welsh admissions too. Anecdotally (from a newspaper report with a consultant) they were getting very sick younger people initially. I dont know if that has continued. He didnt know why it was happening and I dont know if it has continued. Will try to find the report.

Think i remember that too @ already, it may have been the aneirun bevan trust if that helps.

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/ive-young-fit-well-patients-18048123

Hmm interesting, although obv that was back in April so I wonder how things developed

The itu numbers now track similar as the south east region....

Just seems so odd their admission number is so high

Anyone know why Wales hospital admissions are always so much higher proportionally? Do they have a lower threshold for admitting people?

I was previously told on this thread that Wales count their admissions differently. Anyone with suspected covid is counted, so any fever, cough etc. In England it only counts with a positive test, if someone is diagnosed once in hospital they are counted as an admission on the day following their positive test.

@cathyandclare really? Well that would explain it

Makes the whole number wildly inaccurate 🙄

It looks that way @Humphriescushion.

Yeas, so many people are admitted with respiratory problems and fevers.. I'm digging around to get confirmation. In the meantime the ONS figures are out- still below the five year average:

The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 24 July 2020 (Week 30) was 10,142, which was 118 deaths fewer than the five-year average; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 30, 231 deaths involved COVID-19

Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 30, 63.4% occurred in hospital with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.7%), private homes (4.7%) and hospices (1.4%)

29.7% looks lower, wasn't it 40% of all fatalities before?

I'm a bit confused. If ONS is saying 60% of deaths are occurring in hospitals why are the daily death counts made up mainly of PHE (non hospital) deaths. Is it still the reporting issues? Or am I missing something?

@Sunshinegirl82 that's what I was thinking too... the numbers don't seem to be tallying up. But is it because PhE are still adding on and getting it wrong generally on non hospital deaths

[quote MRex]The hospital stats look like only 13 England admissions on 1st August, can that be right?? coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare[/quote]
The England admissions data updates daily so for example it could say 13 admissions on 1st August but if you look a few days later it will say (for example) 35 admissions on the 1st August. So the most recent date on the list always has a lowish number.

If you look at the people in hospital data however it looks more reliable for some reason.

Thanks @Frazzled2207, makes sense. I don't usually check those numbers.

@MRex
although the data for the last few days can be a bit unreliable the stats of people in hospital, admissions to hospital and people on ventliators all seem to be still coming down, including in the north west.

I'm in one of the "problem" areas in greater manchester and a lot of talk on social media locally about how it can be that cases are steadily increasing yet hospital admissions are still steadily decreasing. It could be a time lag, it could be younger people getting it. Still doesn't quite make sense though .

Or more testing, targeted in those areas?

I just had a fiddle around with figures on staging data website.
It seems that the highest number of people with confirmed Covid in NW is woman between 20-30 and 50-55.
May explain the lower admission rates. These are fairly low risk category?

confirmation of the claim that Wales counts figures differently? Also I'm told by those who have heard it that a Covid cough is pretty distinctive to a medical ear. Covid tests are not 100% accurate, especially is someone has been ill for a week, as hospital admissions may have been, but lung x-rays show a quite distinctive pattern. So you can get very clear Covid cases in hospital without a positive test. No idea how they are counted in England and if that is different in Wales.

Wales used to have a lot of mines. If they are getting older admissions now its quite likely they have serious comorbidity. Also areas of significant deprivation.

Article about Welsh figures. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

Wales doesn't count deaths differently, just admissions and they include any potential cases as admissions, not just the highly suspect cases.

confirmation of the claim that Wales counts figures differently?

From the old slides for UK government briefings:

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

England data captures people admitted to hospital who already had a confirmed COVID-19 status at point of admission, and adds those who tested positive in the previous 24 hours whilst in hospital. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are assumed to have been admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis.

Wales data includes confirmed and suspected cases, and is the number of admissions to the hospital in the previous 24 hour period up to 9am. The status of COVID/non-COVID is as at the time of reporting not at time of admission.

Yes, the difference in reporting only applies to hospital admissions.

There is clearly something wrong with the welsh admittance data, at it says they are admitting 40 or so people a day but total inpatients is only 130 or so and stable, going down a little! This is what the dashboard says about the data for admissions -

"England data include people admitted to hospital who already had a confirmed COVID-19 status at point of admission, and those who tested positive in the 24 hours previous to the reporting date whilst in hospital. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are reported as being admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis.
Northern Ireland data include confirmed COVID-19 admissions by admission date.
Data for Scotland include admissions into hospital for patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission, or during their stay in hospital. The data are published weekly by Public Health Scotlandd_.
Wales data include confirmed and suspected cases, and are the numbers of admissions to the hospital in the previous 24 hour period up to 9am. The status of COVID/non-COVID is as at the time of reporting, not at time of admission."

the welsh corona scoreboard suggests a much lower, more realistic number- counting only those with a positive test before/at admission it has 27 admissions in the week ending 26 July, with 141 inpatients.

public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Summary