Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Have we had the Monday deaths released yet?

@Harencha

Have we had the Monday deaths released yet?

9 in the UK. (5 hospital, 4 PHE)

and a reminder that the announced deaths are those in hospital or where Covid is suspected. I'm going to be keeping a eye on the excess deaths figure from now on.Does anyone remember the dead body in the streets in China? People die of "heart attacks" and "strokes" before they ever see a hospital and we know now that some of them are Covid deaths, caused by its impact on clotting.

Excess deaths in England and Wales are below average now, and have been for 5 weeks.

There is likely still some data lag there, but overall at present there are now excess deaths happening.

However: we are still seeing a few hundred excess deaths at home, the vast majority not with covid on the death certificate. Whilst some may still be covid related, this suggests that some people are still not going to hospital when they should.

I've been keeping an eye all along on ONS deaths from all causes
So far, still in low normal range
SD, masks and some older people staying home more than normal would reduce some "usual" deaths

I think a small % of deaths, those requiring inquests, could be registered several months later
so we'd only get the 100% complete picture of 2020 maybe in summer 2021

Some very socially isolated people might only be found months later
(tbh, not to be morbid, this is one of several reasons that as an anti-social Aspie I chose a serviced flat for retirement)

A poster several weeks ago was saying their firefighter relative normally had to break in to homes to find a few dead people every month, but that the numbers had rocketed during the height of the crisis.

These would be people dying of all causes, not just COVID

[quote MillicentMartha]@boys3 Don’t you think starting the axis of your graph at 500 is a little deceptive?[/quote]
@MillicentMartha

to be perfectly blunt - No - as it emphasises the percentage growth aspect of the rolling seven day average. But given the nature of the thread I'm happy to be challenged on it.

[quote LivinLaVidaLoki]@PatriciaHolm
I think it's entirely possible that all the observed case growth at present is coming from increased testing in concerning areas

Thats what I think too. Isnt it just a handful of areas that have most of the cases?[/quote]
That's broadly correct.

Taking the 7 days to 1st August - although being mindful there are probably between 300 and 500 further cases that will come out over the next few days for this period :

9 LAs account, containing less than 5% of the population in England, account for 26.5% of cases.

33 LAs together account for 50% of cases, and just under 10% of population, and,

62 LAs had a seven day cases per 100,000 greater than the overall figure for England.

Meaning that

253 LAs had a seven day case lower than the overall figure for England.

Summarised on the attached

and the detail for the 33 representing 50% of cases in the seven days up to 1st August

I live in one of the areas that has very high cases but there hasn't been increased testing like there was in Leicester. I think in Leicester it did random testing in certain areas but there has been nothing like that where I am. Just the occasional message on Facebook saying we can't see other people in our houses.
So in my area certainly it isn't increased testing finding more positive cases

Where is the link to hospital admissions in each area... Sorry for being a bit slow...

Agree with @Cherryghost
That might happen in the next few weeks but in my area (GM) the authority’s social media feed definitely suggests there has been an uptick in cases. And no additional testing provided as far as I’m aware.

Belgium

www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-intensive-care-cases-in-belgium-double-in-a-month/a-54405473

"We can see that the virus is circulating intensively in our territory.
The numbers continue to rise," federal virus taskforce spokeswoman Frederique Jacobs said.

"There are no less than 13 municipalities in which more than 100 people per 100,000 inhabitants have tested positive,
that's one person in 1,000 infected as of last week."

The majority of new infections are among young adults, Jacobs said, but nevertheless,
"The number of people admitted to intensive care has doubled since the beginning of July."

The rate of daily new cases in Belgium rose 68% since the last week of July.

The daily number of hospitalizations has gone up by more than a third.

I'm in Bradford and it's very easy to get a test here: there's a walk in centre in the middle of the city open 8-8 with a mixture of walk in and pre bookable appointments and mobile testing units moving around the city. DH says they're picking up a lot of asymptomatic cases which I really hope is true but I haven't seen any data to back that up or not.

@BigChocFrenzy the Belgian news is not good, especially as the upsurge in cases there is also leading to an increase in hospitalisations and more worryingly ICU. Not something we are seeing here at the moment. Equally a weekly rate of 100 cases per 100,000 across 13 municipalities (depending how defined) is shocking - do we know the levels of testing? - not mentioned in the report link.

I know that deaths are currently below the 5 year average - as they were at the start of the year. They should be since Covid precautions should also mean fewer other infections. I'll start to take more interest in them because they may begin to change as cases rise. And I dont really buy the assumption, with no evidence, that most of these are people not going to hospital when they should, although some gps are probably not referring when they should or missing things by doing only telephone consultations. Some of these deaths are Covid and not recognised as such.

Looking at the 5 year average death rate is only any use when the numbers of deaths are large @already. Even if they were failing to pick up 50% of them right now the number is too small currently to be statistically significant in among the much larger total number of deaths from all causes. So not a bad idea to watch it (and it still appears in the weekly reports I notice) But unlikely to be the first clear indication of a rise in cases. You'd notice the much larger numbers of positive tests and rising hospital admissions much sooner.

we are noticing the rising trend of positive tests. If deaths start to rise they will, like the tests, be concentrated in certain areas.

Pessimistic study on modelling schools reopening www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30250-9/fulltext

This is anecdotal but I can see why there are local outbreaks and various differing patterns of spread.

I took da to a large theme park yesterday. They had an amazing set up. SD marks on floors, mandatory masks on some rides, some closures of areas due to nature of them, excellent organisation in eateries etc, hand santiser at all entrances and exits.
Ok, when just wandering around despite only operating at 40% capacity (that's all they are allowing) you will pass people briefly at points there was very low risk.

Most people were really good.

Some were just completely stupid. A number of times I had to comment to people to back away and respect SD. Examples are ds and I looking at his ride photo and standing at counter to buy it. A woman cane right up behind and and actually was touching me and pointing over my head to the photo and then 6 family members crowded around us.
Looking at zoo animals and people coming right up rather than waiting their turn.

Their behaviour would be rude at anytime but I just think it shows a whole new level of entitlement and lack of awareness during COVID.

I guess if enough people in one area like this exist then transmission will increase within that area.

Itsgettingweird could I ask what theme park was well managed with reduced capacity.

Chessington.

They are limiting to 6000 people. Capacity is 15,000.

Obviously any theme park there are risks because of queues but most people left 2m. Some were a nightmare but we had masks. Plus ds is disabled so we use that entrance.
The cleaning was also really good. Every 30 minutes they prayed the whole area and sent rides around without people on them. It did increase queue time a little (not more than usual when at full capacity) lots of staff around as well.

Mo where is risk free but I feel they did everything they can to limit risk but you're just at the hands of Joe Public to do their part.

Do we know how many cases have been contracted from holidays abroad?

I read something last week that between 4-26th July there had been 10 confirmed cases of people returning from Spain.

The hospital stats look like only 13 England admissions on 1st August, can that be right?? coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare