Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Right and none of those links worked did they! Right will sort that.

thank @PatriciaHolm

there were 35 confirmed CV outbreaks in care homes compared to the 22 in educational setting (& 28 in workplaces).

old slides and UK govt pressers
UK dashboard
staging.data.gov.uk Beta UK dashboard
UK deaths weekly updated
PHE Surveillance report
NHS England daily deaths
FT Daily
HSJ daily
Worldometer UK
Plot FT graphs of countries data
Covidly graphs to compare countries
Our World in Data

Might explain the slightly higher Scottish case numbers over the past few days. Still should be no issue with the contact tracing

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53465160

Opps

Thanks, PatriciaHolm

Sorry folks, the last thread filled up so quickly !

Looking at that Scotland data, still v low number of infections
only 23 new cases in the whole country
and

250 mourners at a funeral in Blackburn and the iman has tested positive. They say they "made a mistake". Cant imagine how they thought that was acceptable.

No I agree there is no need for concern in the Scotland data, it's just more the unfortunate location of the potential outbreak.

Yes heard that on the news... they've said they thought there was no maximum number limit if SDing....

I wonder if this is entirely an excuse or actually a language issue.

I also wonder if it might produce enough new cases to push Blackburn with Darwen into lockdown, and if that would at least make the government speed up its newfound attempts to translate guidance and ensure that messages are adequately reaching ethnic minorities.

@Littlebelina

No I agree there is no need for concern in the Scotland data, it's just more the unfortunate location of the potential outbreak.

I had to go read it again to get that, but oh dear yes!!!

Thanks for the new thread, Patricia

The government tries to get messages out through imams, I doubt it's a language issue. Wonder if it was this imam www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18467103.judge-rules-bradford-mosques-friday-prayers-injunction-bid/

250 mourners at a funeral in Blackburn and the iman has tested positive. They say they "made a mistake". Cant imagine how they thought that was acceptable.

Quite a lot of Muslims believe that regular massed Islamic prayer prevents covid

cekfakta.tempo.co/fakta/761/fakta-atau-hoaks-benarkah-korban-covid-19-di-aceh-hanya-satu-orang-karena-tetap-salat-berjamaah

I had a conversation with a university lecturer who is Muslim and in his 69s about this topic. He said and I quote literally 'going to the mosque is not a problem because it's only 15 minutes and an hour for the sermon ' [not in the UK I should add].

Saudi Arabia shut down worship but less orderly countries are incapable of doing so, as in Pakistan

foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/24/pakistan-ramadan-coronavirus-pandemic-mosques/

Oh my Christ.

@AnyFucker

Oh my Christ.

I suspect that's not quite what the Imams were saying...

once/if it gets shown beyond doubt it’s airborne I’m not sure what Covid secure measures will be managed to deal with this. Are they still pretty sure it is airborne even if WHO haven’t explicitly said as much?

Thank you

@JulyBreeze

Yes heard that on the news... they've said they thought there was no maximum number limit if SDing....

I wonder if this is entirely an excuse or actually a language issue.

I also wonder if it might produce enough new cases to push Blackburn with Darwen into lockdown, and if that would at least make the government speed up its newfound attempts to translate guidance and ensure that messages are adequately reaching ethnic minorities.

I am unclear just how big the mosques are?? 250 people x 2 metres apart takes up a lot of room so I do not believe any social distancing was taking place

As a local, I have a vested interest in this and am well and truly pissed off tonight! We have to wear masks already, the gyms and swimming pools have had their re-opening postponed for a further 2 weeks, my DC's sporting activities have been cancelled again having just started up again...and then you read this

Thank you

If the 250 people were 50 families of 5 people then considerably less space would be needed.

The arcgis map shows the outbreak is in a limited number of areas within Blackburn and Darwen. I've outlined the area of Blackburn with Darwen on the map (I think that's right but it may extend a little further north although those areas have less than 3 cases in week 28 anyway).

The local paper's articles on covid have quite a few comments particularly from Darwen residents that any lockdown should be very localized and Darwen should not be locked down. How that could be effectively enforced is anyone's guess.
phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

If the 250 people were 50 families of 5 people then considerably less space would be needed.

The arcgis map shows the outbreak is in a limited number of areas within Blackburn and Darwen. I've outlined the area of Blackburn with Darwen on the map (I think that's right but it may extend a little further north although those areas have less than 3 cases in week 28 anyway).

The local paper's articles on covid have quite a few comments particularly from Darwen residents that any lockdown should be very localized and Darwen should not be locked down. How that could be effectively enforced is anyone's guess.
phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

Track & trace needs improvement:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/19/test-and-trace-failures-risk-exponential-coronavirus-case-growth-in-england-official-warns

Dominic Harrison, the director of public health in Blackburn with Darwen, said
the national tracing system was only managing to reach half of those who had been in close contact with a coronavirus patient in towns with high infection rates in the north-west.

In Blackburn with Darwen, where officials are battling a “rising tide” of cases,
only 44% of 799 close contacts of someone with coronavirus had been successfully contacted by call handlers,
according to Harrison’s analysis.

In Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale and St Helens, fewer than half of the at-risk people had been reached.

choux there are quite a lot of areas not shaded on the map that fall within the Blackburn with Darwen boundaries - Darwen is a separate town and appears to have no concerns in terms of infection rates so I totally understand why they are calling for much more localised lockdowns. The entire area is having restrictions put in place when the problem is very localised

The Burundian president claimed God had made a covenant with his country and it wouldnt suffer from coronavirus - he is believed to have died from it. Stupidity is present in all religions. www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html