Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@BigChocfrenzy Thanks for publicising the graph, very useful

What's the best site for keeping an eye on hospital admission data?

I thought they found the runaways a few days ago

So is there an uptick ? That telegraph article was written on the 18th ? Someone upthread suggested rolling 7 day average was down ? I am a bit confused.

This beta page has the hospital admissions. Scotland and Wales are slow to update, but if you select England as the region you can get pretty up-to-date figures.

alreadytaken I agree that - for all countries - that we have so much more knowledge now
that it should be quite feasible to avoid the worst case

Very different situation to back when it was a novel virus - and infections had shot up before most governments realised the danger

Particularly the knowledge about clusters, superspreaders, pre-symptomatics spreading enables targeted measures:
the most "bang for our buck"

Virologists in Germany have been saying for several weeks that we have a good chance of avoiding a "2nd wave" with good decisions by goernment and sensible & compliant behaviour from the public

In late Autumn and winter, I expect "ripples" rather than waves, probably with local lockdowns
and maybe international holiday flights being seriously restricted again, to avoid the ski crowd infections

It is important though that the Uk sorts out issues with the track & trace system by Autumn

Also that the return to ft schools is sensibly planned, with extra resources and contingency plans too

I'm optimistic about the second wave being lower, not as optimistic about avoiding one/ life being back to normal by Christmas (to quote a buffoon). Still if the saliva test works that is a game changer and even allows international travel with all passengers and crew tested before each flight.

Barbados flight had a passenger testing positive recently - quarantine mentioned for nearby passengers, no-one seems to think about the crew.

Saliva test will be a particular game-changer for schools

• I suspect a large minority of kids won't tolerate repeated swab tests and that many parents don't do them properly / sufficiently deeply.

However, I wonder if it would take a few days for enough virus to be detected in these tests ?

• and would virus still be detectable in saliva at all stages when present in the body ?

The "escapees" were found and are self-isolating. The reports they were found were a couple of days later. I have no idea how many hours it took to find them or how many people they potentially infected, but we need stronger penalties for the stupid.

My understanding is that the saliva test can be processed in more laboratories, so turn around can be fast, and that the virus shows up in saliva before symptoms are apparent. However as with all claims like this the proof is in the trials.

we have a good chance of avoiding a "2nd wave" with good decisions by goernment and sensible & compliant behaviour from the public
We're doomed in the UK then ☹️🙄

Well, the danger in countries that so far have v low deaths
is that the public become blasè about the future risks and no longer bother to comply with public health advice

in which case, the rating of countries performance "well / badly" could change dramatically

I expect govts & public health authorities of those countries are aware of this
and working hard to keep the public informed & on board

@crosseyedMary

we have a good chance of avoiding a "2nd wave" with good decisions by goernment and sensible & compliant behaviour from the public We're doomed in the UK then ☹️🙄

Why do people keep saying this when surely the evidence points to the exact opposite and most people have been very compliant?! Indeed more compliant than was ever expected. I think as a country we are terrible for judging everyone by the actions of a few, because it’s the actions of the few that make the news - how boring it would be to show pictures of all the many families staying in most of the time and following the rules.

why do people keep saying this
I agree that people in the UK have been generally compliant, I think mostly we have done our best but the government have not done their best, not by a long chalk, taken the piss and abused our trust more like ☹️

@crosseyedMary I agree the government have been awful (and I hate BJ with a passion) but I genuinely do feel that they are getting much more on top of things now.... 🤞🏻

I hope so Marceline🤞
I think that over the long-term humanity could learn so very much from this crisis

Why do people keep saying this when surely the evidence points to the exact opposite and most people have been very compliant?! Indeed more compliant than was ever expected. I think as a country we are terrible for judging everyone by the actions of a few, because it’s the actions of the few that make the news - how boring it would be to show pictures of all the many families staying in most of the time and following the rules.

I agree with this, I mean I know some people have been idiots but when I go out and about/speak to friends and family etc then it's clear that actually there are many people who are quietly sticking to the rules and keeping themselves safe.

Yes, the oh so "cool" gang of "it's just flu" are imo only a small - but vocal - minority

Most people are being sensible

In may area of Germany, mask compliance is near 100% and I expect the v occasional exception has an exemption certificate anyway
(of course, I would never ask)

Latest ONS report to 10 July - England & Wales only:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10july2020

"Of the deaths registered in Week 28, 366 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”,
the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 16 weeks
and a 31.2% decrease compared with Week 27 (532 deaths),
accounting for 4.2% of all deaths in England and Wales."

stuart mcdonaldd@ActuaryByDay*

Latest ONS deaths data (to w/e 10 July) has been released.

560 fewer deaths than normal were recorded in-week.

Year to date there have been 18% more deaths than 5-year average.

We may be reasonably complaint but we are way behind in mask wearing, thus far. States on the BBC say 36% of us wear them, or are willing to, against 76% of Americans. This very much surprised me, especially as the BBC is concurrently running a story about why Americans don't wear masks.

I am coming perilously close to blocking my BIL from Alabama on FB , though, for the paranoid propaganda he spouts.

The initial question from BBC was about people who wear them now (rather than those who are theoretically willing/unwilling to do it):

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344

If people do not use public transport and avoid enclosed spaces, there is no compelling reason for them to wear masks. The chances of getting COVID from people walking past in the street are negligible.

I take public transport to get to work and pretty much everyone on the tube wears masks. At the same time the majority of people seem to take their masks off when they get out of the station.

yes, that is why I put 'thus far'.

The was some footage on the BBC the other day showing people leaving a busy train (not tube) and I saw one person mask wearing.

One thing that strikes me as odd about the ZOE app (sorry if this has come up before) is that positive "tests" are logged without the user being required to specify whether the test is an antigen test or an antibody test. They are clear that both qualify as a "test" to be logged.

So in my case I was ill in March (not swabbed) and had a positive antibody test in July which I have logged. Perhaps they infer from the fact that it was a blood draw that it was an antibody test, not an antigen test? If they can't reliably distinguish between the two then it seems to me their data on new diagnoses may be skewed by increasingly prevalent antibody testing which relates to historic infections.

Perhaps there's an easy answer to this which I haven't spotted.