Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

Jeremyironsnothing - some people are disappointed. They react with a kind of disturbing glee if deaths go up. People are weird.

@MarshaBradyo ... breathtaking isn’t it? I knew it would be very bad but it’s actually horrifying.

Several reasons why the numbers are not going up. In the nicer weather people were outside and probably still social distancing to an extent so the virus wasn't spread as quickly or to as many people. Even on the beaches with no social distancing there is probably little opportunity for it to spread given it is outside. There is some evidence it is mutating into a weaker strain so the symptoms are not as bad. The bulk of the deaths are in care homes and they now seem to be getting on top of that hopefully. No mass gatherings in indoor spaces (except for the few breaking the rules massively) which is the main breeding ground for this virus. I also guess the medics are learning more about the virus and how to treat it.

Personally I think we just need to learn to live with it. We have cancelled international travel for this year and will not be attending any mass gatherings for some time to come even when places are opened up. I think I want to see a month of pubs, restaurants, cinemas and theatres open before booking anything.

[quote Eckhart]@BeijingBikini

Have you got a link to the evidence that COVID-19 was in the UK in August?[/quote]
I don't know about August, but I'm certain it was in the UK by Christmas. I've posted before that I have a friend who's son returned from a trip to China on 18 Dec, and then my friend had the worst "cold" she's ever experienced over Christmas, with all the symptoms of COVID 19.

Given the increase in trade, etc with China over recent years, my friend's son will not have been the only person returning from trips near Wuhan.

And lenty of people have been speculating about the spike in pneumonia/unknown flu cases during December/January.

I really should edit better. Whose, not who's.

@Jkslays

Also I think some people have absolutely revelled in this shit show. Loved the drama of it and the prediction of a ‘new normal’

I don't know anyone who thinks like this. We must mix in very different circles. I know people in the media who have been accused of this but where they see a Covid Lover I see someone who is as scared as I am. More of the unknowns about this disease rather then the fear of dying. Also the fear for parents and loved ones.

If you do know people like this then I would avoid them just as you would avoid someone who voted for Brexit and still thinks it was a good idea.

I posted on that thread. I'm not sure if I'm going to be made redundant or not, but I'm not prepared to go back to work right now, even if it becomes 'permitted', which it's currently not. I have underlying conditions, though individually not on the Govt shielded list (but might have to discuss with GP if it becomes an issue with work) I cannot Social Distance in my job. I'm not putting my life at risk to do it. I'm not sure why you think I should or why you think it's wrong of me to stay at home

And from your employers point of view what do you think they should do?

Because the disease was a total scam, half of the people are asymptomatic and there's evidence it was here in Autumn, so in reality we've probably already had several waves and probably have herd immunity.

I wish what you were saying was true. I think some people are so angry and upset off by lockdown and how it’s screwed up their lives that they console themselves with a fantasy narrative that it’s all nonsense and others are to blame for creating a monster out of nothing.

If we had herd immunity, how is it we have 1/8 of the antibodies of those in Bergamo (who also are unlikely to have herd immunity, though don’t seem far off).... and what caused the “death spike” in April if it was endemic since October. It makes no sense.

Because the vast majority of us are still living lives which are nothing like our pre-covid lives in terms of interaction.

I am not taking the train/tube daily. DH isn't working at all. DS isn't going to school or seeing any of his friends. DM isn't going to her clubs, hospital appointments, or, frankly anywhere at all. We are not socialising.

Some scientists say the virus is getting weaker I guess only time will tell there are so many unknowns

People may ask why the daily death figures still seem high vs the number of new infections. I suspect it is because those dying, and certainly those in hospital, have been very ill for some time rather than dying from a recent infection.

Mawbags I work for a NW NHS trust, it was on our internal comms.

Some scientists say the virus is getting weaker I guess only time will tell there are so many unknowns

Yes, I’ve seen reports that swabs are coming back with lower levels of virus. This could well be because testing was only done for very ill patients early on (with very high viral loads) whereas now they’re testing very widely and picking up many even with infections who are assymptomatic, who are likely to have very low viral loads.

Because a huge amount of people are still sticking to lockdown. Before March I would be "in contact" with a good few hundred people a week when you took into consideration the people I shared a large open plan office with, the large number of people in the gym at the same time as me, people in the pub or a restaurant or cinema or non food shops because I usually went somewhere at least once a week plus seeing my extended family and friends most weekends.

Now I've been wfh all the time, gym, cinema, pub, clothes shops, etc are all shut and in Wales we still have this ridiculous five miles rule in place so I still haven't seen family or friends.

So my contact with people outside my household has gone from probably just under a thousand per week to spending two minutes as a cashier puts my food through the tills, and not even that if I can order online.

I don't ignore china and what its role has been you only have to look at the pathetic condemnation and nothing changes to know the elite are in it, they give us the illusion countries are upset at China but it's now quietly died down.

And yes they do plan these event years and years in advance they have agendas like agenda 21.
Bill Gates has been videos saying from his own mouth about depopulation and chipping people...its not some random billionaires trying to get one up on him.

He might imagine money away but look at why he is going it what it gets him,pharmaceuticals producing vaccines in which they can put in a chip in...that's certainly what he wants.

You can carry on believing that the elite would never plan something like this, there is no way in hell people could want to kill other people or screw economies but they do. They have enough wealth they are not impacted it's all about power and control.

Only have to look at China doing trials on have a social points system to see the fucked up shit that is going on. A Chinese journalist didnt fall in line in terms of reporting he was carted off the jail only to come out to find he did had now 'lost points' which meant he could not book a train ticket, was not allowed to buy a house could not fly.....you think that's just for China. It will happen always eventually happen elsewhere.

You think they wknt ever chip people, oh wait they already trialling it in Europe, think its Sweden.

Good luck keeping your head in the sand whilst freedoms are slowly being eroded

Remeber you have been told over an over there is a new normal. No point harking back to getting back to normal its already gone. Welcome to the new world hope it was worth it

I locked down a week before ordered to as I get bad asthma and DH is immunosuppressed. Last week we went out for first time for a walk. Did not even see one person. Makes me wonder if we could have gone out for a walk before. Our cul de sac is quiet and everyone seemed to be sticking to rules. We did get annoyed when we saw pictures of really crowded beaches on VE weekend. Now protesters squashed together like sardines. My adult son has got medication for us both and bits of shopping missing from delivery order. He says not many people about in shops until last 2 weeks. Most people seem to have been sticking to rules. It will be nice when beer gardens are allowed to open again and outdoor restaurant at garden centre. I would love a holiday but don't think it will be safe this year. I hope kids get back to school in September. I think they are missing out so badly. The young will be paying off this new debt for 20 years. I feel sorry for them. They have been hit the hardest while older ones got to shelter.

Because actually most people are sticking to lockdown. The beaches/marches etc are exceptions.

@Russellbrandshair

Drunk people aren't particularly good at social distancing

Well you’ll always get someone who doesnt care but that doesn’t mean the entire idea was wrong. By that rationale you wouldn’t ban everyone from food shopping simply because some people aren’t adhering to social distancing.

Can't you see the difference between having a party and going to the supermarket? Parties were already banned when they where happening.

Remeber you have been told over an over there is a new normal.

'Normal' is constantly changing over time, though! Life doesn't stand still. The 'new normal' is just a buzz phrase to indicate that we (temporarily) can't go back to the levels of socialising we previously engaged in because there's still a risk of spreading Coronavirus. It's like 'oven baked Brexit'. It means nothing. In time we will go back to a similar 'normal' to what existed before the virus peered over the horizon.

Actually I would like to see some things remain - less flights mean less air pollution, smaller carbon footprints. I am happy for that to be a 'new normal'!

If you look back over history with the sheer amount of disruptions that have occurred, whether globally or in particular regions or countries (via wars or pandemics or economics), afterwards yes, things changed but it's not some malevolent plot by 'the elite'...

Who are the 'elite'????

@newyearnoeu

Because a huge amount of people are still sticking to lockdown. Before March I would be "in contact" with a good few hundred people a week when you took into consideration the people I shared a large open plan office with, the large number of people in the gym at the same time as me, people in the pub or a restaurant or cinema or non food shops because I usually went somewhere at least once a week plus seeing my extended family and friends most weekends.

Now I've been wfh all the time, gym, cinema, pub, clothes shops, etc are all shut and in Wales we still have this ridiculous five miles rule in place so I still haven't seen family or friends.

So my contact with people outside my household has gone from probably just under a thousand per week to spending two minutes as a cashier puts my food through the tills, and not even that if I can order online.

Ok let's say you're right and there is a group of people manipulating the whole world to their agenda. If they are so powerful enough to do this then what can I do about it?

Also, how do they all agree to the same agenda when I can't even get my family of 4 people to agree to what we want for dinner.

Sorry I quoted the wrong post. Meant to quote @cyclingmad. Apologies.

My theory (and appreciate this is just opinion based on my own circumstantial evidence)

• The virus has been circulating longer than the official line. My DM and DSF have both just had positive antibody tests (they work for NHS). They were ill over Christmas and New Year - classic symptoms. DSF was ill for months and still has lingering breathing difficulties (it lead to Pleurisy). If this is the case, the recent peak could very well have been the second wave.

• Not everyone is susceptible. My DH also had it in March (positive antibody test too). That means I have been in very close contact (DM and DSF stayed over Christmas) with 3 confirmed cases. I am O type blood (apparently a protective factor) and generally never get ill. So perhaps a certain percentage of the population who won't get it.

• we are still distancing, so of course this is helping keep the rate low.reducing. If we went back to early March behaviour, we would no doubt see a pronounced effect in a few weeks. The small number of people on VE day/protesting/on the beach would have no effect on a national level compared to normal daily activity

• this is not a conspiracy, knowing people who have had covid, and also a number of people who have worked directly with Covid patients and been involved in the nightingale hospitals, that is quite insulting to say.

• nobody really knows what will happen next, not even the scientists. So we have to proceed with caution whilst managing the economic risk. I'm glad it's not my job tbh as seems an impossible task.

[quote PickAChew]@GreyGardens88 Sunderland[/quote]
A primary school teacher tested positive on Tuesday/Wednesday in Sunderland.

@Eckhart I didn't say August, I said Autumn, for which there is a lot of evidence. France traced their first case back to November.

I didn't mean "scam" as in all made up, I meant there has been so much scaremongering and misinformation that most people are terrified when they have no reason to be. In one of the SAGE documents there was something along the lines of "make people think the virus is a big personal danger to them, so they are more likely to comply with measures".

The way we record a Covid death is iffy at best - anyone with a positive test, or suspected Covid but no test or negative test, gets recorded as a Covid death; even if they died of something else.

I'm not saying the government was wrong to introduce these measures, but the compliance and ability to totally manipulate the population with confusing/conflicting information is like a textbook manual for any budding dictators.

Also the "beach photos" were an actual scam, from a birds eye view they looked crowded but actually if you look closely everyone was social distancing. 2m was literally plucked out of thin air by the government with no scientific basis, and now it is thought 1m is perfectly adequate. I went to Brighton beach on a Sunday and there was enough space to sit that we were about 15m from the nearest people. Don't believe everything you see in the Mail.

Also, newspapers are known for using old photos (from wars for example) completely in the wrong context to shitstir.